CAA seeding scramble in progress

Five things in mind on D1scourse's favorite non-power conference with only 10 conference games remaining in the regular season.

1. It's all in Old Dominion's hands. The Monarchs are a game up on Northeastern with only a home game against Virginia Commonwealth remaining. Why is this important? Well, the No. 1 seed has won seven of the last eight Colonial tournaments. It's like a reverse Missouri Valley (until recently). There's also a considerable divide between No. 7 and No. 8, so the top seed figures to have less of a headache in its opener. Which reminds me ...

2. No one should want to play Hofstra. There might not be a storyline in Richmond I'm looking forward to more than what sort of havoc the Pride can provide to the bracket. After a five-game skid to conference contenders in January, Hofstra has won eight of nine. Most of that was against conference flotsam, but upending Northeastern on the road last night was an eye opener. Charles Jenkins and friends are officially the sleeper of the event, and might be more dangerous than the likes of Drexel and George Mason at this stage.

3. Northeastern is limping home. The Huskies have dropped three of four, and head to a building where they are 0-4 since joining the CAA. A visit to George Mason isn't going to be easy, especially since the Patriots will probably be playing for a bye in the conference tournament. Despite some impressive pieces, it'll take quite the  turnaround for the Huskies to end their nearly 20-year NCAA tournament drought.

4. William and Mary should come close to sewing up a bye tonight. The Tribe beat George Mason, split with Virginia Commonwealth and swept Drexel. All that's needed is a home defeat of Towson, and the Tribe is assured of at least being in a tie for fourth. That doesn't assure a bye --- not yet. But given the bedlam in the league in the last couple weeks, an upset or two elsewhere would be no surprise.

5. George Mason could have a burst yet. Mike Morrison returns from suspension tonight at Delaware, and the Patriots get Northeastern at home Saturday. Even though Mason isn't playing particularly well, it could pick up a couple victories this week and --- with some help --- wind up with the No. 3 seed. Crazy as it sounds given recent events, that's the prediction here for how the next week shakes out.

Comments

[Shawn]

Thanks for the Mason love. You haven't been drinking the Litos Kool-Aid...excellent.

[D1scourse]

Shawn ---

Well, I think Mason wins tonight against a limited team. And I lean toward them against Northeastern at home.

Still dont see an ultra-long stay in Richmond this year. But Id think 13-5 in the league would qualify as pretty good given the questions that existed in the preseason.

[Jim]

Despite the recent struggles, Patrick, I honestly don't think enough has been made of the fact that Mason has a shot at a tie for second place with a lineup that includes one returning starter and a bench full of freshmen.

Everyone seems to love Tony Shaver for COY, but he's got a senior- and junior-dominated team that underperformed last season. Coach L is doing something fairly unprecedented in a league where the veteran teams almost always dominate.

[D1scourse]

Jim ---

Interesting idea. Maybe what Larranaga does is taken for granted a little bit. But Mason is also 2-4 against the rest of the top half of the league, which makes them one of the great beneficiaries of such a competitively polarized conference this year. Would Mason have a chance to tie for second if it had to play VCU and Drexel twice instead of UNC Wilmington and Delaware?

If Shaver wins coach of the year, two large factors will be (1) media folks comparing William Marys accomplishments to their own inaccurate forecast of the Tribe; and (2) William Mary beating two NCAA tournament-bound ACC schools on the road.

[Jim]

Good points, as always, Patrick. Of course, the unbalanced schedule helps and hurts everyone in the CAA in any given season -- this year, for example, Northeastern only played ODU in Boston and didn't have to make the trip to Norfolk, where the Monarchs have won something like 6 trillion CAA games in a row.

As for the media, there was so much hype about Mason's last two recruiting classes that I think people forgot how difficult it is to stay near the top (especially in a mid-major league, where you're typically not getting national top-50 recruits) with inexperienced guys playing lots of key minutes.

ODU, Northeastern, W&M and VCU all have much more experienced lineups/rotations than Mason (the 15th-youngest team in the nation), yet Coach L has the Patriots right in the mix again. While he won't win COY, I can't help thinking he probably deserves it.

[D1scourse]

You are certainly correct that a veteran rotation is rewarded in leagues
where there isnt a mass exodus of underclassmen. And for doing well against
the schedule he was dealt, Larranaga deserves credit.

If I was voting (and Im not), Id go with Blaine Taylor. Old Dominion has a
chance to earn an at-large NCAA tournament berth. Thats a pretty well done
job, Id think.