Calling foul on Duke?

When news broke yesterday that Duke senior Lance Thomas was questionable for Saturday's game against Maryland, I wryly noted that just meant there was a better chance a Plumlee brother or Brian Zoubek would foul out.

Maryland fans, ever-entertaining Lone Gunmen that they are, immediately replied to tell me it would be Jordan Williams who would foul out.

So this got me thinking: Statistically, is there a discrepancy in the foul calls against Duke and the rest of the conference. That led to some scouring, and, well, you really don't care about the details.

Bottom line is I've come up with a list of the fouls and minutes of every ACC player averaging 25 minutes in conference play. There's 48 of them, or precisely four per team. Although the league schedules aren't identical, keeping it strictly in the conference does something to even out the comparison.

(Since a lot of teams have played exactly 10 games, it made ascertaining averages a whole lot easier, too).

I won't bore you with three long charts, but figured I'd offer the top 10 in two categories (average minutes and average fouls) before getting to the fun stuff:

AVG. MINUTES

Ish Smith, Wake, 38.6
Jon Scheyer, Duke, 38.5
Kyle Singler, Duke, 38.0
Malcolm Delaney, VT, 37.9
Nolan Smith, Duke, 37.6
Dorenzo Hudson, VT, 36.0
Greivis Vasquez, Md., 34.8
Chris Singleton, FSU, 34.1
Sylven Landesberg, UVa, 33.4
Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake, 33.1

AVG. FOULS

Jeff Allen, VT, 3.7
Chas McFarland, Wake, 3.4
Malcolm Delaney, VT, 3.3
Chris Singleton, FSU, 3.2
Tracy Smith, NCSU, 3.2
Terrell Bell, VT, 3.1
Tanner Smith, CU, 2.9
L.D. Williams, Wake, 2.9
Dwayne Collins, The U, 2.8
Scott Wood, NCSU, 2.8

If anyone is even remotely surprised by the two leaders in average fouls, they shouldn't be. Delaney was an interesting third option, but he plays so much that it makes sense he would roll up some fouls.

But what of the Duke players on the floor all the time. Singler (2.6) nearly cracks the list. Smith (1.9) and Scheyer (1.3) come nowhere close to it.

These, of course, are raw numbers. If only there was a way to to equalize things just a little bit.

Of course, there is. It's figuring out the numbers on a per-40 minute basis.

Is it perfect? No. Does it account for stylistic differences between teams? No. But it is a way to come a little closer to answering the question of the day.

Cue up the Godzilla version of the patented Spiffy Chart:

Player	Fouls	Minutes	Fouls/40 Min.
Jeff Allen, VT	33	238	5.55
Chas McFarland, WF	34	279	4.87
Farnold Degand, NCSU	25	231	4.33
Dwayne Collins, The U	28	259	4.32
Terrell Bell, VT	28	260	4.31
L.D. Williams, WF	29	280	4.14
Tanner Smith, CU	29	282	4.11
Zachery Peacock, GT	26	254	4.09
Jordan Williams, Md.	21	208	4.04
Derrick Favors, GT	27	270	4.00
Deon Thompson, UNC	24	240	4.00
Tracy Smith, NCSU	32	326	3.93
Chris Singleton, FSU	32	341	3.75
Rakim Sanders, BC	23	253	3.64
Solomon Alabi, FSU	26	288	3.61
Malcolm Delaney, VT	30	341	3.52
Gani Lawal, GT	23	261	3.52
Ed Davis, UNC	20	231	3.46
Scott Wood, NCSU	28	326	3.44
Larry Drew II, UNC	23	270	3.41
Durand Scott, The U	23	276	3.33
Sean Mosley, Md.	17	207	3.29
Al-Farouq Aminu, WF	27	331	3.26
C.J. Harris, WF	24	298	3.22
James Dews, The U	25	313	3.19
Corey Raji, BC	20	254	3.15
Landon Milbourne, Md.	20	257	3.11
Malcolm Grant, The U	19	255	2.98
Ryan Reid, FSU	19	259	2.93
Kyle Singler, DU	26	380	2.74
Trevor Booker, CU	22	322	2.73
Demontez Stitt, CU	16	235	2.72
Dorenzo Hudson, VT	22	324	2.72
Sylven Landesberg, UVA	18	267	2.70
Sammy Zeglinski, UVA	16	240	2.67
Derwin Kitchen, FSU	20	301	2.66
Mike Scott, UVA	15	227	2.64
Marcus Ginyard, UNC	16	245	2.61
Reggie Jackson, BC	18	277	2.60
Will Graves, UNC	16	259	2.47
Greivis Vasquez, Md.	17	278	2.45
Andre Young, CU	17	286	2.38
Joe Trapani, BC	15	254	2.36
Eric Hayes, Md.	14	250	2.24
Iman Shumpert, GT	16	295	2.17
Nolan Smith, DU	19	376	2.02
Ish Smith, WF	14	386	1.45
Jon Scheyer, DU	13	385	1.35

Well now. There's a lot to talk about. And I'm not even thinking about Jeff Allen's average of more than five fouls per 40 minutes.

From strictly a team perspective, every school in the conference except Clemson and Virginia has at least two players pop up on the list before Singler's appearance at No. 30. It's not long before the Tigers and Cavaliers come up with a second and a third player in that chart.

It's also worth noting that only two teams have two players in the bottom eight on this chart --- Duke and Maryland. So maybe we won't see as many fouls as usual on Saturday?

Well, at least on one side. It is almost inconceivable anyone --- Scheyer, either of the Smiths, anyone --- could play so much and get called for so few fouls. In the course of a game, most players are going to get tagged with a couple fouls and often more. It happens.

Now, officials could be swallowing the whistle with some of these guys. And a few of the players toward the bottom of the chart might consider defense a suggestion rather than a requirement.

There's also the reality of teams that win a lot don't burn as many fouls toward the end of games. Duke hasn't exactly been forced to chase many teams to the free throw line in the final seconds. Maryland either.

That said, the bottom of that chart certainly raises my eyebrows. I still think it's a bit of a conspiracy to believe Duke gets a ridiculously disproportionate amount of the calls. But the same just might not be true of the non-calls.

Comments

[Scott]

Great breakdown as always. Your end of the game suggestion seems valid, but I also think Duke just gets calls, especially at home. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a conspiracy, but it's part of the "human" aspect of any game. That said, in recent years it seems that this has become less of an issue in ACC play, although that's just one man's observation.

[D1scourse]

Scott ---

I've been bombarded with ideas on this, enough so that I'm going to do another post later.

But some of the valid arguments for why Duke's stars are called for fewer fouls include:

* Playing on the perimeter.

* Singler and Scheyer rarely drive (and get called for charges).

* Guys like Scheyer and Smith are smart enough to find advantages without getting whistled.

* Duke's bigs are foul magnets (also true ... have you seen Zoubek's numbers? You will in a later post).

One thing I'm certain of is that it isn't so much calls that can help Duke (or any team with a reputation for being good), it's the no-calls.

[ShawnB]

Easy to prove what you want when you cherry pick the stats. What's the point of only taking the 25 mpg guys if you are going to normalize on minutes played?

1-Most of the guys on the top of that list are big men. Duke's three players who average 25 minutes are all primarily perimeter players. In ACC play, Greg Zoubek is called for 9 fouls per 40 minutes. Mason Plumlee is called for more than 7 per 40 mins, Miles Plumlee 6.4 and Lance Thomas just shy of 5.

2-Using the top 10 in the ACC in scoring as proxy for the league's best players, only 3 of them are called for more fouls per 40 minutes than Singler. Stars across the board get the same treatment.

3-Duke has been called for 18.9 fouls per game this year, more than any ACC team but Wake.

[D1scourse]

You call it cherry picking. I call it coming up with a number that seems reasonable to deem starters minutes.

Read carefully, and youll notice that Im not keen on folks assuming theres a discrepancy in fouls called.

On the bright side, I have one more conspiracy theorist to roll my eyes at.