Profiling the Terps

I wrote a column a month or so back on InsideMdSports.com wherein I argued that for Maryland to feel safe --- really safe on Selection Sunday, it would be wise to collect 21 total victories (a number that includes a defeat of Division II Chaminade, which won't show up on the selection committee's data.

This was pooh-poohed by a good many folks, most presuming that conference record alone would take care of things.

Well, Maryland is 18-7 overall and 8-3 in the ACC. They've passed the eyeball test, dissecting scuffling teams with remarkable ease at home and collecting a series of road victories (Indiana, UNC Greensboro, Boston College, Florida State and N.C. State) mostly at the expense of teams headed nowhere.

And still, here on Feb. 18, I'll say it again. For the Terps to feel really comfortable on Selection Sunday, they'd be wise to win three more games.

If every victory represents some sort of an asset, Maryland's hand two defeats of Florida States at this point. Which, let's face it, is sort of like going all in with a pair of eights. Good luck with that.

This isn't to belittle the Terps for doing what they're supposed to do. Maryland should receive credit for winning on the road, not losing to bad teams and generally looking like a tournament outfit.

And ultimately, this could be a silly discussion, anyway.

Georgia Tech, owner of a single conference road victory at North Carolina, comes to College Park on Sunday.

Clemson, owner of a single conference road victory at N.C. State, comes to College Park on Wednesday.

Virginia, which has a few weeks to come up with a way to defend Greivis Vasquez after failing to do so Monday, looms on March 6 in Charlottesville.

Then there's the Virginia Tech-Duke combo wedged in the middle, a tough two-game swing late in the regular season.

The way Maryland is playing, there are three wins to be had. Heck, there's three wins to be had at the ACC tournament.

So it isn't a huge question as to whether the Terps get there. It's more a reminder Maryland needs some quantity to make up for its lack of nonconference quality.

Twenty wins could get Maryland in. Some would argue it probably would.

But it's hard to imagine 21 not being a winner. And if the Terps hold serve at home in the next week, it's going to be all but a done deal.

Comments

[Will]

No doubt 21 wins gets them in, but I think you overestimate the emphasis the committee puts on wins. I know this sounds strange to say, but it's true. For example, suppose Va Tech and Maryland end up with exactly the same conference record and basically the same number of quality conference wins. I would be more worried if I were Va Tech because good losses are worth more than meaningless wins. That is, the committee is more likely to reward a team that at least scheduled some quality nonconference teams than a team that scheduled only cupcakes and therefore has more wins.

Fantastic blog, by the way! Will you have the +/- for last night's game?

[D1scourse]

Will ---

Actually, I think by inflating a target number --- one based on the actual resume and not as an one-size-fits-all number to chase --- Im trying to reflect that a hard figure isnt what the committee bases things on.

Let me put it this way. If Maryland gets 21 wins, it will have done enough for its resume (either on the road or against good teams) that there wont be any holes.

In short, Im trying to base a target number on what already has happened and what could happen with the remaining schedule. Which I know sounds a little convoluted. And youre right. Virginia Techs threshold is much higher.

Plus-minus will come later in the day. Gotta hit the road back home for D.C.

[Eddie T]

Yeah, I went all in with snowmen last week, but hey, I was short-stacked. What can ya do?

[Will]

I gotcha. So absolute worst case for 21 wins is a win over Clemson (who then folds and ends up 7-9 or so), a win at Virginia, and one win in the ACC tourney...That would still get MD in. I think you're right. Thanks!

[Greg]

You will not find 34 better at-large teams than a 20-11 (10-6) Maryland team on Selection Sunday. No matter how crazy things get in other conferences.