Two teams in the chase for an NCAA tournament berth.
There's still more than a month to Selection Sunday, but let's take a peek at two resumes for teams coming off victories last night:
| Team A |
Category | Team B |
| 17-7 | W-L | 19-4 |
| 46 | RPI | 58 |
| 1-2 | T25 | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | T50 | 1-2 |
| 3-5 | T100 | 6-4 |
| 7-1 | 200+ | 9-0 |
| 6-6 | Road | 5-3 |
| 6-6 | R + N |
7-4 |
| 72 | SOS | 179 |
| 6-4 | Conference |
6-3 |
| @Pacific (120) @Wyoming (202) |
100+ losses |
None |
First of all, if you're 19-4 and have an RPI of just 58, that means you played a bad schedule.
A really bad schedule.
Like the 340th-ranked nonconference schedule, according to Collegerpi.com.
That's not good at all.
If you ignore schedule strength metrics, though, pretty much everything favors Team B.
Better record. Better top-100 record. No silly losses. Better performance away from home.
The top-50 record is a push --- one victory each. And Team A does have a top-25 victory.
But it also has two bad losses, including one that's really bad.
If the selection committee met and had to choose between the teams in a blind taste test today, I'm not sure which way they'd lean. Team B has some nice numbers, and Team A isn't all that impressive.
But that schedule strength, combined with the absence of a signature victory, has a chance to be a complete dagger a month from now.
Who are the mystery teams? Read on.
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Team A is

(SAN DIEGO STATE)
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And Team B is

(VIRGINIA TECH)
The Hokies have passed the eyeball test in the past (hello, 2008) and still not made it through. In some ways, the best thing they've done this year is not stumble in a completely ridiculous situation (the setback at Miami looking less ridiculous every time the Hurricanes beat someone in Coral Gables).
But that schedule strength is going to be a complete albatross. Eleven of the Hokies' 14 nonconference opponents check in with RPIs of 183 or worse.
In short, there might not be a team in the country that has to go into the final month of the season knowing it must do a little extra to differentiate itself than the Malcolm Delaney-led Hokies. Regardless of whether Virginia Tech is one of the best 34 at-large teams from a visual perspective won't mean much if it cannot separate itself from the rest of the outfits scrambling for the last couple spots.
And at that point, it will be obvious those other teams (well, maybe not San Diego State) went out and played someone in the first two months of the season while Virginia Tech didn't. It's easy to like what the Hokies have done since Jan. 1, mainly because they've won a couple road games and held serve at home --- mostly against solid but not elite competition.
Too bad for them what happened at the tail end of 2009 will get examined as well.
It is somewhat unfortunate for the Hokies that the few teams from decent conferences they did play pre-conference aren't helping them (Yeah, I'm looking at you, Penn State). Temple would have, but of course that's their lone non-conference loss. Taking care of Virginia at home would help a little. Beating their next opponent at home would help more -- but then we wouldn't want that, would we?
Posted by: Eddie T | 02/11/2010 at 11:14 AM
Penn State indeed let the Hokies down. Theres also a lot of trash on that schedule that was expected to be trash.
Its a tough spot for Seth, because he went into the season with Delaney as a sure thing, Allen as a typical contributor when his mind was in the right place and questions after that. Turns out Hudson was pretty good and J.T. Thompson was solid. But it was tough to know for sure, and scheduling wins was a smart strategy.
Typically, you can overcome that with a victory or two over Duke and North Carolina. But UNC isnt UNC, and the Hokies only get one crack at Duke. And thats why Virginia Tech has less of a margin for error than a 19-4 team should at this stage.
Posted by: D1scourse | 02/11/2010 at 11:38 AM