SPOKANE, Wash. --- It's still about 10 hours until tip-off, but let's get this out there before I head over to the arena.
Fourth-seeded Maryland (23-8) meets 13th-seeded Houston (19-15) at approximately 9:50 p.m. At least, that's what the NCAA is saying. Just remember, the last game in San Jose last night (New Mexico-Montana) didn't wrap up until 12:45 a.m. Eastern. Do the math.
I'll refrain from predictions concerning when this thing will actually wrap up. The game offers up enough subplots to try to figure out.
1. Aubrey Coleman will reach his season average in scoring. The nation's leading scorer averages 25.6 points. For purposes of the prediction, I'm calling at least 25 points for the Cougars star. The dude couldn't be happier to be here, but he's also really good. He's going to get his, and the key for Maryland is to (a) Not let him score 40 and (b) Limit the damage his teammates manage.
2. Jordan Williams could be a linchpin. This has been written about Tom Penders teams seemingly since the dawn of time, or at least since James Naismith found a new use for peach baskets: They are vulnerable to a big, bruising post presence. The halfcourt game so often proves crucial in the NCAA tournament, and Maryland figures to have a decided advantage thanks to its effective freshman. Williams struggled with foul trouble in the ACC tournament, but has shown an ability to adapt and improve after shaky games all season. If Houston can't push the tempo, Williams will be a difference-maker.
3. Houston will lead by three possessions at least once. The slow-starting Terps haven't played in a week, and long layovers don't seem to suit them well. Here's guessing the Cougars get off to a strong start and get the remnants of the crowd at Spokane Arena into the festivities early on.
4. The Cougars must hit 10 3-pointers if they expect to win. Maryland should hold an edge in the post, which means Houston pretty much has to thrive at what it does best --- shoot from the perimeter. The Cougars aren't winning this game unless they make a barrage of shots. And they're certainly capable of doing so.
5. Maryland wins --- but not before enduring some headaches. There could be all sorts of mayhem in Spokane today. All the double-digits seeds are playing fairly well coming. Meanwhile, Michigan State is searching for answers and Purdue is operating without its best player. Maryland overachieved a bit this season, but also hasn't suffered a truly dumb loss over the balance of the season. The Terps also don't tend to overwhelm opponents on the road. Look for Houston to stick around, maybe even lead early in the second half and then watch as the Terps wear them down. Here's calling Maryland 79-66, and an 11th straight first-round tournament win for coach Gary Williams.
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