Army and Denver are in.
Navy is out.
Loyola has to get an at-large.
Towson can't get an at-large.
And a whole lot of teams will be doing some scoreboard watching between now and Sunday.
Let's get to the bracket breakdown now.
AUTOMATIC BERTHS (6)
This we know: Army (Patriot League) and Denver (ECAC) have clinched two of the 16 spots in the NCAA tournament.
Four conference tournaments this weekend will determine berths as well. For now, league leaders --- Stony Brook (America East), Towson (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy) and Siena (Metro Atlantic) --- will be slotted into the AQ spots.
Army: 17 and 30 (no top-20 wins)
Cornell: 6 and 6 (Princeton-7, Stony Brook-9,Yale-15, Army-17)
Denver: 11 and 28 (Loyola-8, Stony Brook-9, Fairfield-20)
Siena: 37 and 58 (no top-20 wins)
Stony Brook: 9 and 37 (Towson-14)
Towson: 14 and 7 (Drexel-16)
AT-LARGE CERTAINTIES (6)
As a pretty simple rule, a team in the top 10 of both the RPI and the strength of schedule will be in the field. Right now, the four ACC schools, Syracuse and the top two Ivies (Cornell and Princeton) fall into that category.
With Cornell penciled in as the AQ for the moment, that leaves six at-large spots all but allocated at this stage:
Virginia: 1 and 1 (Maryland-twice-2, North Carolina-3, Syracuse-4, Duke-5, Cornell-6, Stony Brook-9, Hopkins-12, Towson-14, Drexel-16)
Maryland: 2 and 2 (North Carolina-3, Duke-5, Georgetown-10, Hopkins-12, Towson-14, Fairfield 20)
North Carolina: 3 and 5 (Maryland-2, Duke-5, Princeton-7, Hopkins-12)
Syracuse: 4 and 10 (Cornell-6, Princeton-7, Georgetown-10, Denver-11, Hopkins-12, Army-17, Notre Dame-18)
Duke: 5 and 3 (Virginia-1, Loyola-8, Georgetown-10, Brown-19)
Princeton: 7 and 8 (Hopkins-12, Hofstra-13, Yale-15, Brown-19)
THE AT-LARGE POOL (11 teams for four spots)
There's some generous inclusion in this bunch. Delaware and Massachusetts don't have the statistical profile of an at-large team, and both teams will absorb an extra loss unless they win the CAA tournament outright.
Johns Hopkins is included for illustrative purposes at the moment. The Blue Jays don't have wins, but neither does Georgetown or Brown or Yale. Hofstra and Villanova have some wins, but subpar schedule strengths. Give the Hop a victory over Loyola, and its profile will look decent compared to the rest of the bottom of the field.
Anyone that doesn't think Notre Dame doesn't possess one of the four best profiles in this group needs to have their head checked. That's not to say the Fighting Irish really belong in the field, but all those early wins are going to carry them into the tournament.
Loyola: 8 and 17 (Georgetown-10, Towson-14, Fairfield-20)
Georgetown: 10 and 12 (Notre Dame-18)
Johns Hopkins*: 12 and 4 (Towson-14)
Hofstra: 13 and 35 (Hopkins-12, Towson-14, Army-17, Brown-19)
Yale: 15 and 22 (Brown-19)
Drexel: 16 and 25 (Hofstra-13, Notre Dame-18)
Notre Dame: 18 and 15 (Duke-5, Loyola-8, Denver-11)
Brown: 19 and 13 (Cornell-6)
Villanova: 21 and 36 (Drexel-16, Notre Dame-18, Fairfield-20)
Massachusetts: 27 and 29 (Georgetown-10, Hofstra-13, Brown-19)
Delaware: 29 and 19 (Drexel-16)
THE FINAL SPOTS (4)
As mentioned before, Hopkins, Delaware and UMass are all included more for illustrative purposes than anything.
Villanova is outside the top 20 in RPI and strength of schedule. Even beating Georgetown might not be enough to get the Wildcats into the field.
Loyola and Notre Dame both rank in the top 20 of both relevant metrics, and both possess at least one top-10 victory. Right now, both are in.
That leaves Georgetown, Hofstra, Yale, Drexel and Brown for two spots.
When all else fails in a mess like this, there's two things worth rewarding: Pulling off one insanely good game, and playing a tough schedule from start to finish. Brown's the only team left in that group with a top-10 win. Georgetown has the best schedule of the bunch. For now, they are as palatable as it will get, though Hofstra and Yale would complain about their head-to-head result against Brown as an argument against that decision.
Hofstra is the sneaky team in the mix. The Pride is in the clubhouse, and can sit back and watch the rest of the bubble self-destruct. If Brown and Yale lose in the Ivy semis, Drexel falls to Delaware in the CAA semis and Hopkins stumbles at Loyola, Hofstra will be well-positioned to slip in and take the final at-large berth.
Virginia and Maryland will occupy the top two spots. I'm convinced common sense will prevail and not knock Syracuse below No. 3. North Carolina and Duke are sensible selections at 4-5.
Cornell slides in at No. 6, and pretty safely at the moment. The Big Red might not be able to make the jump to No. 5 even if they win the Ivy tournament.
Princeton and Loyola are the best of what's left. The Tigers' strength of schedule lifts them to the No. 7 spot, with Loyola stuck at No. 8
With Denver and Notre Dame in the field, the committee is stuck with two flights whether it likes it or not. No one else will be flying a charter in the first round.
Explainers are below, but the other priorities at this point are avoiding rematches and making sure Stony Brook gets funneled into its quarterfinal site. All first-round games are at home sites.
(1) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(8) Loyola vs. Georgetown
Stony Brook, N.Y.
(4) North Carolina vs. CAA/Towson
(5) Duke vs. ECAC/Denver
Stony Brook, N.Y.
(3) Syracuse vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
(6) IVY/Cornell vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(2) Maryland vs. Brown
(7) Princeton vs. Notre Dame
* It's just too easy to send a MAAC winner to the Dome. Fortunately, Army is just inside the 400-mile radius from Virginia. So those teams are slotted.
* Stony Brook won't be flying to the Triangle, and the spot opposite Syracuse is taken. That leaves a trip to Cornell, which is a regular-season rematch. Nonetheless, that's a situation where the committee's hands could be tied.
* One huge wild card could be the exact mileage of the Providence-to-College Park trek. Yahoo pegs it at 401.39 miles, Mapquest at 400.9 miles. Who wants to bet the NCAA can find a program that narrows that below the threshold? If so, Maryland-Brown is a real possibility.
* A team with a losing record (Towson) remains on the board. Off to Chapel Hill with the Tigers.
* Rematches are less than ideal. But Denver, Georgetown and Notre Dame have all played Loyola this season, so someone's getting a second date with the Greyhounds.
Ultimately, the right way to do this is base it on common sense. Georgetown's a steadier team than Notre Dame (and even beat the Irish), and Notre Dame did more over the course of the season than Denver (and even beat the Pioneers).