Time to indulge in a time-honored sportswriters' conceit: Predictions.
Scores will be offered for the first round games in the NCAA lacrosse tournament, for they are upon us in the next few days. The breakdown of the final three rounds that follows will be a bit more sparse.
FIRST ROUND
* Mount St. Mary's at No. 1 Virginia. Every last thing about the Cavaliers will scrutinized, right down to their insensitivity if they roll up an 18-0 lead after three quarters like they did in last year's first round against Villanova. But this is a mismatch, and Virginia will move along to the quarterfinals. Cavaliers 16-6.
* Denver at No. 8 Stony Brook. It's hard to believe the Pioneers lost to Jacksonville and Penn this year. But they're clicking now, and they'll visit a Stony Brook team that owns all of one top-20 win (Towson). Some road team is going to win, so I'll take the easy way out and bank on it being Denver. Pioneers 12-11.
* Johns Hopkins at No. 5 Duke. Hopkins isn't going to get blown out, regardless of how anything looks on paper. That doesn't mean the Blue Jays (7-7) are a good bet to win. But they've played well the last couple weeks, and if their faceoff play is sound and their turnovers in the middle of the field are limited, they'll have a chance in the end. Duke is awfully talented, and while the Blue Devils probably won't lose in Durham, crazier things have happened. Blue Devils 12-10.
* Delaware at No. 4 North Carolina. So Delaware can score in bunches when needed and the Tar Heels haven't stopped anyone of late. Hmmm. Much like last year's scoreboard igniter against UMBC, there could be plenty of goals in this first round game involving Carolina. The last month has created reason to pause with the Tar Heels, but they should escape their opener. Tar Heels 16-12.
* Hofstra at No. 3 Maryland. The Pride can score. But can they defend a Maryland offense that has reached double figures on all but two occasions? Given the dicey situation in the cage, that seems unlikely. Hofstra was fortunate to make the tournament, and while its offense is final four-worthy, it probably isn't complete enough at the other end of the field to stick around long. Terrapins 14-10.
* Notre Dame at No. 6 Princeton. This has a chance to be interesting. Six of Princeton's last seven victories have come by two goals or less, including one-goal defeats of Yale (twice), Penn and Cornell. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish stumbled home with four losses in their last six games and haven't defeated a team with a winning record since before the NCAA basketball tournament started. Of the plausibly competitive games in the first round, this could be the biggest snoozer. Tigers 9-7.
* Loyola at No. 7 Cornell. So which Loyola team shows up --- the one that thrived in March and April, or the one that played poorly in back-to-back losses to close out the regular season. Let's not forget the Big Red is 3-4 since the start of April, with losses to Dartmouth and Brown sprinkled in. If it stays in single digits, Cornell is going to struggle to win (it is 1-4 in such situations this year). If it gets to 10, Jeff Tambroni's team will move on. Here's guessing ... Big Red 10-8.
* Army at No. 2 Syracuse. The Orange are 25-1 in NCAA tournament home games (the lone exception being a loss to North Carolina in the 1991 semifinals). And they will be 26-1 once they get done with the Black Knights, who lost all three of their games against the NCAA tournament field this season. Orange 14-6.
QUARTERFINALS
No. 1 Virginia
No. 5 Duke
No. 3 Maryland
No. 2 Syracuse
Virginia was placed in a favorable draw, and should advance whether it plays Denver or Stony Brook. It would be interesting to see if North Carolina could finally break through in the quarterfinals against Duke (the Tar Heels have lost to the Blue Devils at that stage in two of the last three years).
Meanwhile, Maryland seems like a steadier team than Princeton, even when stuck facing the Tigers on their home field. And Syracuse ... well, it will probably beat Cornell in excruciating fashion for the Big Red. Where have you heard that one before?
SEMIFINALS
No. 1 Virginia
No. 2 Syracuse
With the Duke hex gone after an ACC tournament rout, Virginia withstands the national glare on its program and makes it to Memorial Day for the first time since 2006. Syracuse, meanwhile, uses its superb defense to knock Maryland out of the postseason for the second straight year.
FINAL
No. 2 Syracuse
Close but not quite for the Cavaliers, who will have their hands full with a Syracuse outfit that nearly won when the teams met in Charlottesville in March. All the media attention will be on Virginia's tumultuous month, but few fans will complain about a season that ends with these two teams playing. A slight edge to Syracuse in this matchup to take home its third straight national title.
I think it Maryland's year. I like their path better than Syracuse and i think UVa just doesn't have it in them. But good write up.
Posted by: Glenn - Penn State Alabama Tickets | 05/14/2010 at 11:32 PM