So the ACC preseason poll was released on Wednesday, which naturally begs the question: Who will fail to meet and exceed expectations.
Since the expansion to 12 teams, the biggest overachiever is Florida State, which has finished an average of 2.5 spots better than where it was picked over the last five years. The Seminoles were pegged as the league's fifth-place team this week.
Virginia Tech is the second biggest overachiever, outpacing expectations by 1.6 standings positions. Maryland, on average, picks up one spot over preseason projections.
The biggest underachiever --- by far --- is Georgia Tech at 2.4 places below the average.
Duke and North Carolina predictably have an average of "underachieving," but that's mainly because one shaky season (Duke 2007, North Carolina 2010) can make things look bad when a team is pegged to finish in the top two year after year. In fact, Virginia Tech of this year is the first non-Duke/Carolina team to get picked for the top two since Boston College in 2006.
(A point on methodology. A tie in the standings is averaged together. So if two teams tie for third, each gets 3.5 for the season. If three teams tie for third, each gets 4.0 for the season).
ACC BASKETBALL, EXPECTATIONS vs. RESULTS 2006-2010
Maybe the most amazing part of this chart is that no one other than Duke or North Carolina was picked on average to finish in the top five (Maryland is third at 6.0, barely projected as a top-half-of-the-ACC team on an annual basis).