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"Maybe the most amazing part of this chart is that no one other than Duke or North Carolina was picked on average to finish in the top five."

That is both fascinating and infuriating.


A point to make about your Spiffy Chart - teams at both ends of the specturm are limited by how much they can over/under-achieve. In other words, you can't over-achieve if you're picked first.


Eric ---

Correct. I thought the Duke/Carolina comment sort of alluded to that, but its certainly possible I wasnt specific enough.

The greatest flaw in this chart is the limited sample size. One year still throws everything out of whack --- Duke would have a net of zero if 2007 was deleted, and Carolina would actually be slightly positive if last year was tossed out. I might try something a little more simplistic over a larger period of time in a little bit.

As for the other end of things, it is indeed easier for a Virginia to overachieve when it is consistently pegged for the bottom.

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