Later than many but only a bit after a realistically useful prediction was first possible, here's a breakdown of the projected 68-team NCAA tournament field through Monday's action.
But first a few thoughts:
* One time through the resumes, and it is already obvious the Mountain West could wind up with a Missouri Valley circa 2006 situation --- a league that has a lot of good teams that has gamed the RPI with its nonconference scheduling.
* As has been the case with a 68-team field, there will be flawed teams taking up the final spots in the field.
* Historically, teams with nonconference strength of schedules in the 300s who are borderline teams don't make the tournament. Period. That's why Maryland will find itself on the outside unless it is demonstrably better than the rest of the riff-raff fighting for the final couple spots.
* Finally, this is still really, really early, and half of the point of doing this exercise this early is to begin to memorize what first-round matchups aren't permitted because they are repeats (one that popped up today: Indiana-Bryant).
As for the projected field:
EAST REGION
Philadelphia
(1) Duke vs. (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Niagara-BIG SOUTH/Charleston Southern
(8) UCLA vs. (9) Baylor
San Jose, Calif.
(4) MOUNTAIN WEST/New Mexico vs. (13) SUN BELT/Middle Tennessee
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) PATRIOT/Bucknell
Auburn Hills, Mich.
(3) Minnesota vs. (14) IVY/Harvard
(6) MISSOURI VALLEY/Wichita State vs. (11) Temple
Dayton, Ohio
(2) Louisville vs. (15) BIG WEST/Long Beach State
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Wyoming
SOUTH REGION
Kansas City, Mo.
(1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) MID-EASTERN/North Carolina Central
(8) Notre Dame vs. (9) Mississippi
Salt Lake City
(4) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Louisiana Tech
(5) N.C. State vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA/Southern Mississippi
Dayton, Ohio
(3) ATLANTIC 10/Butler vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Davidson
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Colorado
Lexington, Ky.
(2) Indiana vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Albany
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Oklahoma State
WEST REGION
Auburn Hills, Mich.
(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Mercer-SOUTHWESTERN/Southern
(8) Georgetown vs. (9) North Carolina
San Jose, Calif.
(4) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (13) SUMMIT/North Dakota State
(5) Oklahoma vs. (12) Brigham Young/Boise State
Kansas City, Mo.
(3) Kansas State vs. (14) SOUTHLAND/Stephen F. Austin
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) OHIO VALLEY/Belmont
Lexington, Ky.
(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Florida vs. (15) NORTHEAST/Bryant
(7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Colorado State
MIDWEST REGION
Philadelphia
(1) BIG EAST/Syracuse vs. (16) COLONIAL/Northeastern
(8) Illinois vs. (9) Iowa State
Austin, Texas
(4) ATLANTIC COAST/Miami vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron
(5) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (12) Kentucky/Iowa
Austin, Texas
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) HORIZON/Valparaiso
(6) Creighton vs. (11) Texas A&M
Salt Lake City
(2) Arizona vs. (15) BIG SKY/Weber State
(7) San Diego State vs. (10) Pittsburgh
Last four in: Iowa, Boise State, Brigham Young, Kentucky
Last four out: Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Memphis, Rutgers
Next four out: Arizona State, Charlotte, La Salle, Saint Louis
Conference call: Big Ten (8), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), Mountain West (6), Southeastern (5), Atlantic Coast (4), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)
--- Patrick Stevens
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