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Flipping through history: Current Terps vs. Florida State

Maryland swept a pair of games from Florida State last season, scoring 148 points in the process against the stingy Seminoles.

The Terrapins' returning players this year managed 43 of those points (17 by Jordan Williams). Little wonder, then, that Maryland's three seniors each scored in double figures in both games against Florida State last season.

As for the holdovers. ...

ADRIAN BOWIE: 18.3 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.5 tpg, 0.7 spg, .385 FG% (5/13), .400 3FG% (2/5), .857 FT% (6/7)

2008 (H): 6 minutes, 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 1/2 FG, 2/2 FT
2009 (A): 24 minutes, 14 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 steal, 4/6 FG, 2/4 3FG, 4/4 FT
2010 (H): 11 minutes, 0 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 0/1 FG, 0/1 FT
2010 (A): 14 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 1 turnover, 0/4 FG, 0/1 3FG

DINO GREGORY: 15.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.3 tpg, 0.3 spg, .333 FG% (4/12), 1.000 FT% (2/2)

2009 (A): 16 minutes, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 2/6 FG
2010 (H): 18 minutes, 4 points, 4 rebounds, 1 turnover, 2/5 FG
2010 (A): 13 minutes, 2 points, 2 rebounds, 0/1 FG, 2/2 FT

CLIFF TUCKER: 9.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.3 tpg, .500 FG% (4/8), .250 3FG% (1/4), .500 FT% (1/2)

2009 (A): 5 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebound, 1/3 FG, 0/2 3FG
2010 (H): 16 minutes, 8 points, 1 turnover, 3/5 FG, 1/2 3FG, 1/2 FT
2010 (A): 7 minutes, 0 points, 2 rebounds

SEAN MOSLEY: 24.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.0 tpg, 1.3 spg, 0.3 bpg, .467 FG% (7/15), .000 3FG% (0/1), .667 FT% (6/9)

2009 (A): 25 minutes, 13 points, 5 rebounds, 1 turnover, 2 steals, 5/7 FG, 3/6 FT
2010 (H): 24 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 turnover, 2/4 FG, 0/1 3FG, 2/2 FT
2010 (A): 24 minutes, 1 point, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 2 steals, 1 block, 0/4 FG, 1/2 FT

JAMES PADGETT: 5.5 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1/3 FG, 3/4 FT

2010 (H): 10 minutes, 4 points, 4 rebounds, 1/2 FG, 2/2 FT
2010 (A): 1 minute, 1 point, 1 rebound, 0/1 FG, 1/2 FT

JORDAN WILLIAMS: 24.0 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.0 tpg, 1.5 bpg, .471 FG% (8/17), .500 FT% (1/2)

2010 (H): 18 minutes, 3 points, 7 rebounds, 1 turnover, 1 block, 1/6 FG, 1/2 FT
2010 (A): 30 minutes, 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1 turnover, 2 blocks, 7/11 FG

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Florida State

Closing in on a half-hour to game time. Let's get to five things to look for as Maryland takes on Florida State.

1. D.J. Adams will score a touchdown. It's well-established now that Adams is going to be the Terps' best option along the goal line. He received nine red zone carries last season, and assuming Maryland gets down there again, he'll be relied upon. Bank on Adams visiting the end zone at least once.

2. Christian Ponder will be sharp. The Florida State quarterback accounted for six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games, but he sat out a week ago because of an injury to his throwing arm. Bank on 200 yards and a couple scores for the senior, who is still seeking his first Atlantic Division title.

3. Maryland won't win if it doesn't hold a turnover advantage. Not just a split. A win. Maryland holds an 80-7 advantage in points off turnovers; the Terps only have a 34-point edge on opponents when scores off takeaways aren't factored in. That's the sort of help Maryland requires to upend Florida State.

4. Florida State will get at least three sacks. The Terps have allowed 13 sacks in their three losses, and four sacks in their seven victories. The Seminoles have the goods to create problems for the Maryland offensive line, which coach Ralph Friedgen acknowledged during the week. Florida State will get theirs, but don't expect a complete debacle from the Maryland line barring an injury.

5. Florida State will win. The Terps have struggled against teams with a surplus of athletes. That sounds like Florida State. It will be close --- much like the loss at Miami was two weeks ago --- but ultimately the Seminoles will escape with its conference title hopes intact in a game that won't be a shootout.

All 128 ACC Atlantic Division scenarios in one place

With four teams and seven games still relevant to the ACC's Atlantic Division race, there are 128 scenarios that could come out of the division.

(For those without much of a stats background, that number comes from taking two --- the number of outcomes possible --- to the seventh power, i.e. 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2).

Anyway, this was a quirky project for a flight from Fort Lauderdale to Baltimore on the way back from the Maryland-Miami game. Needless to say, three pages of my notebook now look like Kryptonian symbols.

Of the 128 scenarios, Florida State wins in 38 of them, N.C. State in 33, Maryland in 31 and Clemson in 25.

And then there's the trainwreck scenario. That's the fun one.

Suppose Florida State loses to Clemson but beats Maryland. And the Terrapins upend Virginia and N.C. State. Oh, and the Wolfpack has to beat Wake Forest and North Carolina. Finally --- and perhaps least likely --- Clemson has to lose at Wake Forest. Then again, it's Clemson, so nothing should be counted out.

That creates a three-way tie at 5-3 between Florida State, Maryland and N.C. State. The group would be 1-1 against each other, and all three teams would have the same division record, losses to Clemson, wins against Boston College and Wake Forest and no common games against non-division teams.

That takes things down to step No. 7 on the eight-step tiebreaker list, which is the team with the highest ranking in the BCS standings at the end of the conference regular season --- unless the teams are within five spots of each other. Seeing as how none of the three are in the top 25 of this week's BCS standings, hilarity could ensue.

Step No. 8, by the way, is "the representative shall be chosen by a draw." Fun times.

So one of the 128 scenarios falls under "unknown" --- an amusing potential outcome to say the least. As for the other 127. Read on after the jump.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Florida State

(The third of 12 ACC team previews)

Nowhere is there such a titanic shift in the ACC this season as the one that exists in Tallahassee.

Sure, Virginia has a new coach, N.C. State (and soon enough, Maryland) have new athletic directors and North Carolina has a new dedicated phone line to the NCAA offices.

But at Florida State, Bobby Bowden is gone after being nudged out the door last fall, with head coach in waiting Jimbo Fisher taking over.

Some perspective on that: Twelve of the last 13 Heisman winners weren't even alive when Bowden coached his first game in Tallahassee (it came a month or so before Charles Woodson was born).

So things are different, if only because a larger-than-life personality no longer is the symbol of a program the built --- only to watch it slide into relative irrelevance for most of his final years on the job.

The big question, then, is whether changing a coach prompts different results. We'll find out soon enough.

When we last saw them ...: Bowden celebrated his final game with a Gator Bowl defeat of West Virginia, his soon-to-be old school knocking off his long-time old school to herald in an unwanted retirement.

It wrapped up a year when the Seminoles lost to Miami, South Florida and Florida and failed to collect even a division title in the conference for the fourth straight year. It ended with Christian Ponder watching from the sideline after missing four games with injury. And it ended with defensive lion Mickey Andrews enjoying his last roar --- except it was much more of a whimper thanks to a unit that gave up 204.6 yards a game on the ground. The pass defense (230.0 ypg) wasn't quite so toothless, but it wasn't impressive.

Still, Florida State was 7-6 with a bowl defeat of a ranked team. Clearly, the Seminoles were in a diminished state. But if that was rock bottom, it was an enviable low point many other programs in the league would happily take as their floor.

Biggest question: The defense. Yes, the secondary was almost completely wiped out, but the whole unit is on the spot after last year's debacle.

For the press box well above the Doak Campbell Stadium field, it was shocking to watch the Seminoles scamper about trying (and, often, failing) to contain a struggling Maryland offense late last season. In glimpses on TV throughout the year --- notably in the comically bad attempts to stop Georgia Tech --- one thing stood out.

Those guys were wearing Florida State uniforms, but that sure wasn't a Florida State defense. The Seminoles didn't have to look like they stepped out of a time machine from the mid-1990s (like they did in a 2008 trip to Maryland), but the expectation was they'd be competent. They were not.

In some ways, it was like watching a football version of North Carolina's 2001-02 basketball team. Deep down, you knew that wouldn't last long. It didn't. Three years later, the Tar Heels won a national title. But it did take time, and it wasn't always fun.

And so it will be with Florida State, and its defense in particular. There are some pieces in place, and the Seminoles will be better. But the defense could still let them down against some potent teams (Oklahoma, Miami, Florida and N.C. State all come to mind).

Biggest asset: The offensive line. Rodney Hudson is already among the top linemen to pass through Tallahassee, and that's saying quite a bit. But all five men expected to line up in the opener against Samford are at least two-year starters, and the group has combined for 142 career starts.

Ponder couldn't ask for a better situation to help ignite his Heisman chances. He already completed 68.8 percent of his attempts last year, and tossed only three interceptions in his first eight games before a painful (in more ways than one) loss to Clemson.

Nearly all of Florida State's tailbacks averaged at least five yards a carry (Ty Jones checked in at 4.9 yards a rush), so that area is set, too.

Even if Ponder got hurt again, the line would give backup E.J. Manuel a chance to enjoy some success and salvage something. That might not be the case for the reserves behind any of the ACC's other high-profile starters.

Best-case: The Seminoles take advantage of a favorable division schedule (Boston College and Clemson at home), Fisher makes an instantaneous difference and Florida State nabs one or two of the three high-profile games on its schedule (at Oklahoma, at Miami, Florida). Rather than needing time to make a major adjustment, the Seminoles go 10-2 and have a chance to win their first ACC title since 2005.

Worst-case: The defense isn't any better, and Ponder winds up leading Florida State to the wrong end of a few 45-38 games. The Seminoles are blasted in first-half tests at Oklahoma and Miami, and lurch into November with a 4-4 or 5-3 record featuring an unexpected loss (Brigham Young? N.C. State?) or a physical manhandling by Boston College --- or both.

Florida State shouldn't finish any worse than 7-5 --- an improvement by a game over last year --- but with the hype the Seminoles have received in the preseason, a lot of people would consider that a massive disappointment.

Where we'll see them in three months: On paper, the Seminoles should be the Atlantic Division's representative in the ACC title game. Then again, that's a virtually annual refrain, and it never come to pass (except in 2005).

Florida State has more talent in its program --- albeit much of it young talent --- than do Boston College and Clemson. It's better at quarterback than both teams, and better on the offensive line than the Tigers (and probably the Eagles, though that's pretty close).

The defense, though, has plenty to prove in the first year under new coordinator Mark Stoops. And at this stage, it's smarter to let the Seminoles demonstrate they're an elite group rather than just assume they are because of the uniforms they wear.

The calls for a 10-win autumn seem a little over-the-top, but these guys aren't going to slog through another .500 season. They might not beat Oklahoma (but could) and probably won't beat Florida, but the league schedule is favorable enough to offer a shot at a conference title.

The Seminoles get their fellow Atlantic contenders at home. Their crossover combo of North Carolina and Virginia suddenly looks a lot tamer thanks to the Tar Heels' troubles. Even the date at Miami isn't an insurmountable challenge.

Ponder will help keep things interesting, and he's got enough receivers both established (Bert Reed, Taiwan Easterling) and promising (Willie Haulstead) to create all sorts of problems. If the defense can at least achieve adequacy, Florida State should bounce back to 8-4 or (if the Seminoles are fortunate) 9-3 territory.

It won't be a top-five national finish, but it will be tangible progress toward eventually matching Bowden's glory days --- something Florida State fans have longed to recapture much too long for their own liking.

Before the poll, a look back on media's voting record

GREENSBORO, N.C. --- It's just a few hours away from the release of the ACC's preseason poll. While it ultimately doesn't mean much, it is something that will stir conversation for a day or two.

And maybe longer for the teams picked at the bottom of the league.

In any case, there are schools that seem like they perpetually receive the benefit of the doubt (Florida State) and some that are chronically overlooked (Boston College).

But rather than just assume the stereotype is true, why not look back over the first five years of a 12-team ACC to figure out whether it actually is the case or not. The preseason media polls in that span have been averaged together, along with the average finishes. That difference is, for lack of a better term, performance against expectations.

(Note: A two-way tie for first counts as 1.5; a three-way tie for first counts as 2, etc.)

ACC ATLANTIC DIVISION 2005-09, PERFORMANCE vs. EXPECTATION

School	Avg. Pick	Avg. Finish	Vs. Pick
Boston College	3.4	1.8	+1.6
Wake Forest	4.4	3.4	+1.0
Maryland	4.8	4.8	0.0
Clemson	2.4	2.8	-0.4
N.C. State	4.6	5.2	-0.6
Florida State	1.4	3.0	-1.6

ACC COASTAL DIVISION 2005-09, PERFORMANCE vs. EXPECTATION

School	Avg. Pick	Avg. Finish	Vs. Pick
Georgia Tech	3.0	1.9	+1.1
Duke	6.0	5.8	+0.2
Virginia	4.2	4.2	0.0
North Carolina	4.0	4.1	-0.1
Virginia Tech	1.2	1.5	-0.3
Miami	2.6	3.5	-0.9

Hey, for once perception was reality. Boston College is the program most consistently underrated, with Florida State most consistently overrated.

Obviously, this is a fairly simple metric; Duke exceeded expectations on a whole simply by finishing fifth in the Coastal last year, while Virginia Tech probably wasn't going to do better than projection since it was picked to win its division four times out of five.

But it does illustrate something Boston College fans are well aware of --- the Eagles get picked to finish behind Florida State every year, only to wind up no worse than even with the Seminoles by year's end.

College football countdown: Nos. 21-25

Five more teams as the top of the list inches ever closer ...

No. 25 NOTRE DAME

Go ahead and underestimate Brian Kelly. Dare you.

For once, Notre Dame didn't simply elevate an assistant with no head coaching experience (Bob Davie) or pluck a fairly successful coach from an academically-oriented school (Tyrone Willingham) or just hand the keys to a storied program to a blustery NFL coordinator with virtually no background in the college game (Charlie Weis).

No, this time, the Irish went with a long-time coach at three schools who simply won. A lot. He went 34-6 in three years at Cincinnati, a run that's going to look downright impossible another 20 years down the road.

Unlike Willingham (who won six of his first eight games by 10 points or less) or Weis (who beat three ranked teams in his first five games on the job and then knocked off one more in another four-plus seasons), Kelly actually should get credit if Notre Dame surges this year. After a 6-9 record in one-possession games the last two seasons (some "decided schematic advantage," huh?), no one will complain if luck favors the Irish.

Kelly is fortunate to have a schedule designed for a bounceback season. The Irish play three true road games (Michigan State, Boston College and Southern California), and Western Michigan, Tulsa and Utah all pay a visit to South Bend in what might be Notre Dame's least glitzy home schedule in quite some time.

Kelly's a confident guy, willing to speak his mind --- but in a less abrasive way than Weis. That will help erase some lingering frustration from the last few seasons. But more than anything else, winning will do that. Kelly has exactly one losing season in 20 years as a head coach, and it's not likely for that total to double this autumn --- or in any year in the near future.

No. 24 WEST VIRGINIA

The Mountaineers have rattled off eight straight winning seasons --- the first time the program has done so since a 12-year stretch from 1914 to 1926 (there was a season lost to World War I in there).

Throughout this stretch, there have been periods West Virginia has gone through as a program. There was the "Hey, Rich Rodriguez got the team fast in a hurry" phase. Then came perhaps a hint of impatience in 2004, followed by the three straight 11-win seasons. 

Rodriguez, of course, bolted, and Bill Stewart managed a pair of 9-4 years. A third in a row could be in the cards.

The Mountaineers need to find a new quarterback (again), only this time they'll turn to a true sophomore rather than a fifth-year senior (Jarrett Brown). That's going to cause some early issues, and while the defense should be better this fall, Mountaineers fan could easily feel like their team is plateauing a rung below where it was only a couple years ago once this season is through.

No. 23 FLORIDA STATE

No, there wasn't some plan to trot out Florida State the same day Christian Ponder's new website was unveiled. Besides, Ponder --- as good as he is --- is going to account for only so much improvement on his own.

The issue in Tallahassee for the foreseeable future is defense. It was, to put things diplomatically, below average a season ago.

The most telling number: The Seminoles gave up 40 points three times in four weeks during one midseason stretch. Florida State had 40 hung on them three times total during one 16-year stretch (1987-2002).

An up-close look at the Seminoles in November revealed a startlingly shoddy defense. It was sort of like watching North Carolina's basketball team in 2002; sure, the trappings were basically the same, but the talent just wasn't there.

There's a new defensive coordinator (Mark Stoops) and plenty of new starters, which in this situation isn't all bad. If the Seminoles can just achieve adequacy on defense, Ponder and a veteran offensive line will take care of securing the program's first Atlantic Division title since 2005.

No. 22 PENN STATE

If there is a team whose expectations should be reined in simply because of its schedule, it is Penn State.

The Nittany Lions must visit Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State, all while breaking in a new quarterback and working with a revamped front seven on defense.

The schedule does bring a nice treat --- a "road" game against Indiana in Landover, Md. But effectively playing five conference home games (who really thinks FedEx Field will be a pro-Indiana environment on Nov. 20?) only does so much to make up for the brutal road the Nits will face.

The last five years were incredibly impressive in Happy Valley --- 51-13, with a couple BCS bowl appearances. Penn State probably won't make a trip to Pasadena on New Year's, but a 10-3 season isn't out of the question. That would include Joe Paterno's 400th career victory, a feat Nittany Lions fans can only hope comes during one of three midseason home games.

No. 21 PITTSBURGH

Tailback Dion Lewis is back for another romp through the history books. That's good.

Quarterback Bill Stull, who completed 65.1 percent of his passes last season and tossed 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, is not back. That's not good.

Oh, and that guy on the sideline. He still scares the heck out of me. The Panthers have won their share of close games the last few years, but it's also worth pointing out the Panthers' last five losses have come by a combined 21 points.

Nonetheless, Pittsburgh has accrued plenty of talent in the last few seasons, and it's important to allot some of the credit for that to Dave Wannstedt. At this point, it's left the Panthers in as good a position as anyone in the Big East.

That's why, with a measure of reluctance, Pitt is the pick here to win the Big East. There's ample opportunities for a nonconference loss (Utah, Miami, Notre Dame) and it's difficult to imagine the Panthers hanging around the top 10. But it's a solid group, and a trip to the Orange Bowl is the next logical step for a program that's won 19 games the last two years.