Breaking down this weekend's four NCAA tournament games
SATURDAY, Princeton N.J.
* No. 3 Maryland vs. Notre Dame
This might actually turn out to be more interesting than a Maryland-Princeton game would have. The Terrapins played well in their 11-8 defeat of Hofstra in the first round, probably better than the score indicates. But it'll be another matter trying to solve a huge goalie who simply isn't going to give up goals from the outside.
Of course, Maryland ran into a sizzling goalie in the first half last week, but showed the patience to eventually advance. Regardless of who the Terps play, they find some way to generate transition opportunities. That's going to be even more crucial against the Fighting Irish.
Maryland might not be able to go four midfields deep throughout this game. The Terps didn't go that far down their roster in the second half against Hofstra, and even the third midfield made just a cameo after the break. Nonetheless, the Terps are deeper in the middle of the field, and have to hope they can exhaust a talented Irish first midfield.
One fascinating situation here is that Maryland has erased deficits on several occasions, while few teams can play from ahead as effectively as Notre Dame.
Nonetheless, Maryland doesn't have many clunkers in its profile, while Notre Dame has offset defeats of Duke, Loyola and Princeton with losses to Drexel, Fairfield, Rutgers and Villanova. It's anyone's guess which Irish team shows up.
Maryland's defense and attack are strong enough to make up for having the weaker first midfield unit. This might not be much fun to watch, but the Terps should be able to advance to their first final four since 2006.
Pick: Terps 10-7.
* No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Duke
After spending much of the last five seasons in an obvious spotlight --- be it for a breakout 2005, a shortened 2006 and possibly redemptive 2007, 2008 and 2009 postseasons --- the Duke lacrosse program is just plugging along this year.
True, there's one last class of fifth-year seniors in the pipeline, and the Blue Devils did open the season at No. 1. But some early losses --- including one to North Carolina --- meant Duke spent much of the season reclaiming its status as a top-five team.
While the goalie situation (junior Mike Rock made his first two career starts this month) is interesting, the truth is Duke will win because it plays well at the other end of the field. With 11 straight games in double figures, it's safe to say the Blue Devils (led by Max Quinzani's 61 goals) are playing well on offense.
Here's the thing. North Carolina has yielded at least 13 goals in four straight games. The opponents? Robert Morris, Maryland, Ohio State and Delaware. With all respect to Maryland and Delaware, the Blue Devils just possess a more explosive offense.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels' offense seems to be fine, but dropping big numbers on that same contingent of teams (minus Maryland) can only mean so much. Carolina hasn't quite been itself since winning 10 straight to open the season. Stuck in a rivalry game a long way from home, the Tar Heels' are faced with the prospect of needing to win a shootout with Duke.
The last time the Blue Devils scored 13 goals and lost? The 1999 quarterfinals. Which is to say Carolina is fighting a bit of history here.
Pick: Blue Devils 13-11
SUNDAY, Stony Brook, N.Y.
* No. 7 Cornell vs. Army
It's not tough to find the trendy upset pick. It happens to be the same team that everyone in the sport is both admiring and thanking for knocking out Syracuse in the first round.
That would be Army, which is a victory away from its first semifinal appearance since 1984. The Black Knights even lost in overtime to Cornell earlier in the season, so a surprise for the folks from West Point might not even constitute that much of a surprise.
Jeremy Boltus and Garrett Thul make for a great combo on attack. Tom Palesky is among the most consistent goalies in the country. Army is tough, probably tougher than anyone else left. Given the Black Knights' run of close victories (they've won eight straight games by a combined 13 goals), there is every reason in the world for Army to believe it can keep winning.
And it's not like the Big Red is invulnerable. They lost to Dartmouth. They lost to Brown. They nearly blew a big lead last week against Loyola.
And yet ...
... there's still some pieces in place for Cornell. They have Rob Pannell and Ryan Hurley on attack. They have a solid goalie in A.J. Fiore. Long pole Pierce Derkac is among the best at his position.
The Big Red's midfield depth is an issue, but Army isn't great there, either. Cornell does possess a superior option on faceoffs with Austin Boykin, and that could be a significant factor. Maybe the significant factor if there's a bunch of scoring.
Cornell improved to 10-1 when scoring at least 10 goals with its defeat of Loyola. If it can establish a faster pace, it can probably squeak into the final four. But it won't be easy.
Pick: Big Red 10-9
* No. 1 Virginia at No. 8 Stony Brook
Hey, there's actually a lacrosse game being played. And the Cavaliers might actually get tested after running roughshod against an overmatched Mount St. Mary's outfit.
They'll face an intriguing Stony Brook team that can (a) score in bunches, thanks to star midfielder Kevin Crowley and a litany of Canucks and (b) Has suddenly figured out how to play defense late in the season, giving up just 30 goals in the last five games.
But the Seawolves haven't seen an offense as good as Virginia's since ... well, since they lost to Virginia 13-8 in the second week of the season. For some perspective, that game was played with snowbanks surrounding a turf field in Charlottesville. It's been a while.
Virginia's opening round performance was reminiscent of what it did to start last year's tournament. It proceeded to torch Johns Hopkins in the next round before flopping in the final four.
This game will be on Stony Brook's field, and the Seawolves have to be excited after collecting the first NCAA tournament win in school history. But Virginia comes in playing exceptionally well since the start of the ACC tournament, and the venue isn't going to matter much in this one. Even with a whole lot of scrutiny thanks to the George Huguely murder charge, the Cavaliers will plow through and advance to the final four.
Pick: Cavaliers 17-10
First round record: 5-3
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