Halfway home in the countdown, and while it's still a while before the top 25, perhaps someone in this group could turn out to be an out-of-nowhere team.
If any do, it won't be hard to find some surprised people.
No. 65 KANSAS STATE
Whether the Wildcats are better than this or not, this much is certain: They'll know where they stand by mid-October.
A scheduling quirk gives them four home games and a neutral site date with Iowa State in Kansas City in their first five games. Then come five of seven on the road, with Texas rolling into Manhattan for one of the two home games in the second half of the season.
Yes, Kansas State was better last year, and Bill Snyder alone was probably worth a win. So, too, was playing a pair of teams from the former Division I-AA.
The Wildcats gets Big 12 North favorite Nebraska early in the season on a Thursday night. Whether questions at quarterback, in the front seven and concerning depth in general will not only dictate K-State's chances that night, but also all season.
No. 64 COLORADO
The Buffaloes probably wish they were playing intramurals rather than Big 12 football. If they were, "10 wins and no excuses" would have looked a lot more doable last season.
Instead, Colorado slipped from 5-7 to 3-9 during last fall's interminable slog.
The Buffaloes have endured four seasons with nine losses or more in their history. Two have come in Dan Hawkins' first four seasons.
In short, Colorado is heading to the Pac-10, presumably next year. Without a winning season, chances are remote Hawkins joins them in their new conference --- at the varsity level or piloting the intramurals program.
No. 63 AIR FORCE
All hail the surprisingly predictable Falcons.
Why say that? Well, they've been unsuccessful against Brigham Young, Texas Christian and Utah --- the Mountain West's flagship programs --- as well as Navy. And they've been pretty good against everyone else.
Here's how those records stack up since 2005:
| Year | vs. BYU/TCU/Utah/Navy |
vs. Everyone else |
| 2005 | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| 2006 | 0-4 | 4-4 |
| 2007 | 2-2 | 7-2 |
| 2008 | 0-4 | 8-1 |
| 2009 | 0-4 | 8-1 |
That's a 2-18 mark against four schools, and 31-11 against everyone else.
Air Force has the task of visiting Oklahoma in September, so pencil in an extra loss there. So it's not too much of a stretch to anticipate a 7-5 season, with a bowl leaving the Falcons the opportunity to collect a fourth consecutive eight-win season under Troy Calhoun.
You heard it here first --- even if it simply is a mirror of what Air Force has consistently accomplished in the last five years.
No. 62 TULSA
The Golden Hurricane lost three games by a touchdown or less last fall, and collected only one victory by less than 17 points.
So, yes, they were 5-7. But they were a lot closer to extending their bowl streak to five years than bottoming out even further.
It's worth noting that dip occurred with an inexperienced offensive line that was reamed for 46 sacks in Tulsa's pass-happy system a year ago. There's a real chance that unit will be better --- and it will not just help improve quarterback G.J. Kinne, but also the prospects of a program that's grown accustomed to contending in Conference USA.
There's certainly a chance to grow. The Golden Hurricane doesn't have to deal with C-USA heavyweights Houston and Southern Mississippi until November. By then, it could be Tulsa rather than other preseason chic picks (Central Florida? Southern Methodist?) that emerges as the best chance to surprise the conference favorites.
No. 61 PURDUE
Red flag No. 1: The offensive line isn't particularly experienced.
Red flag No. 2: The secondary returns no starters.
Red flag No. 3: New quarterback Robert Marve's production at his last stop was spotty at best. The Miami transfer completed 54.5 percent of his passes and tossed nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions while splitting time with Jacory Harris as a redshirt freshman in 2008.
The Boilermakers took a step back to normal last year, finishing 4-4 in the Big Ten and 5-7 overall. The former isn't all that unusual; Purdue has finished within a game of .500 in the conference seven times in the nine seasons since Drew Brees departed West Lafayette.
Purdue could be in for a similarly pedestrian season this year. A 3-1 nonconference record isn't out of the question. The Boilermakers miss Iowa and Penn State and get highly winnable dates with Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota at home.
It could all add up to a 7-5 season and a trip to a lower-tier bowl. It's precisely the sort of season fans grew weary of in the latter portion of Joe Tiller's tenure, but it would still be a solid year for a team with no shortage of questions.
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