College football countdown: Nos. 6-10

Looking for five teams with at least a chance at a national championship? You're looking at them. The preseason top five rolls out Monday. ...

No. 10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

Yes, the NCAA took the Trojans behind the woodshed, dishing out a two-year postseason ban and extensive scholarship losses in the coming seasons. Pete Carroll has flown away to a lucrative nest in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Cal went 8-5 a season ago. Lane Kiffin remains an untested commodity --- amazing for a guy who has at age 35 has already coached an NFL team and succeeded two college coaches who won national championships.

The defections have already begun, most notably with prized offensive line recruit Seantrel Henderson bolting for Miami. The prognosis for the Men of Troy from 2011 through 2013 is uninspiring at best and disastrous at worst.

Yet 2010 is still in play, and there's still plenty of Carroll-recruited talent dotting the roster. The Trojans' defense isn't what it was just a few years ago --- Oregon State, Oregon and Stanford did a nice job of obliterating that notion last season --- and Southern Cal can't simply expect to out-athlete the rest of the Pac-10 as it did for much of the Aughts. But Kiffin's first Trojans team could wind up being his best (who really expects him to stay through the entire rebuilding process?)

So much depends on whether the players give a damn about salvaging a bit of pride for a program so blatantly out of control that the NCAA actually hammered it rather than issuing an extended "tsk-tsk." The Trojans have no excuse not to win their first four, and they should be favored in a home date with Washington to open October.

At 5-0, the possibility of playing spoiler at the national level would have to seem might appetizing (even if a BCS title is out, the Trojans can still finish first in the AP poll). Yet there might not be a team more in danger of mentally checking out after a single defeat than Southern California.

Kiffin's unproven beyond his ability to talk a good game. If his first team back in L.A. stumbles even once, it will be a lot easier to gauge just how sharp he really is.

No. 9 TEXAS CHRISTIAN

If there's one thing to know about the great Horned Frogs, it's that they can cook up some amazing defenses in Fort Worth.

As in five of the top 13 defensive units since the turn of the century

TOP TOTAL DEFENSES, 2000-09

217.8: 2008 Texas Christian
219.5: 2006 Virginia Tech

221.4: 2004 N.C. State
221.8: 2008 Southern California

233.0: 2007 Ohio State
234.9: 2006 Texas Christian
236.2: 2001 Texas
237.9: 2001 Virginia Tech
239.7: 2009 Texas Christian

240.3: 2002 Texas Christian
242.8: 2006 Louisiana State
244.1: 2009 Alabama
245.0: 2000 Texas Christian
245.5: 2004 Alabama
247.6: 2005 Virginia Tech
249.0: 2002 Kansas State

251.9: 2009 Texas
252.0: 2003 Louisiana State
252.2: 2006 Rutgers
252.6: 2009 Florida

That 2008 TCU defense gave up 1.72 yards a carry, the best figure nationally in the last 10 years. Last year's outfit wasn't quite as dominant, but at 80.2 rushing yards yielded a game, it was still quite stingy.

It's a consistent performance, and Horned Frogs fans can bank on it repeating this season. Seven starters are back, including three on the defensive line (but not star defensive end Jerry Hughes, who had 11.5 sacks a year ago).

Oh, and TCU might have its best offense in Gary Patterson's 10-year tenure.

The trickiest games --- Oregon State (Sept. 4), Brigham Young (Oct. 16) and Utah (Nov. 6) --- are ideally spread out, and the Horned Frogs have opened with a defeat of a power conference school in five of the last six seasons. If TCU gets by Oregon State (a real possibility given the Beavers' chronic slow starts), it could be on its way to another 12-0 season and BCS berth.

No. 8 OKLAHOMA

Boy, do the Sooners probably wish they played more than six home games this season.

It's Oklahoma's turn to be the home team in the Red River Shootout Rivalry whatever you want to call it. It must return a 2008 visit from Cincinnati, albeit with Brian Kelly safely removed to South Bend. But it does get Florida State, Texas Tech and four others in Norman, and stands a pretty good chance of remaining at the top of this list:

LONGEST ACTIVE HOME-FIELD WINNING STREAKS (last loss in parentheses)

30: Oklahoma (2005 vs. Texas Christian)

26: Boise State (2005 vs. Boston College in MPC Computers Bowl)

17: Utah (2007 vs. Air Force)

15: Houston (2007 vs. East Carolina)
15: Texas (2007 vs. Kansas State)

14: Alabama (2007 vs. UL Monroe)
14: Texas Christian (2007 vs. Utah)

12: Cincinnati (2007 vs. West Virginia)

11: Florida (2008 vs. Mississippi)

10: Oregon (2008 vs. Boise State)
10: Troy (2007 vs. Florida Atlantic)

Six games elsewhere won't help, but it's also unlikely the Sooners will endure a pair of injuries as crucial to the season's outcome as the losses of Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham were.

Preview mag guru Phil Steele lists Oklahoma at No. 1. The numbers certainly look nice for the Sooners, but an offensive line that struggled to get traction a year ago remains a concern. This should be a better team than last season's 8-5 bunch and probably would be a disappointment if it doesn't wind up in the top 10 at season's end. Nonetheless, 2011 might be a better time frame for expecting a national championship.

No. 7 BOISE STATE

At long last, there's a non-power conference team with a chance to completely game the BCS system.

Utah went undefeated in 2004, but began the season ranked 20th. The Utes were No. 5 in the final regular season poll.

Boise State was unranked to begin the 2006 season, and made it to No. 9 heading into the Fiesta Bowl.

The next year, Hawaii opened at No. 23 and made it all the way to No. 10 after a dozen wins in a row.

Last season, Texas Christian leaped from No. 17 to No. 3, while Boise State charged from No. 14 to No. 6.

But this year, the Broncos will start in the top 10. Maybe even the top five. And given the inane and intellectually lazy habits of poll voters of all stripes, Boise State could vault into the national title game thanks to its head start in the rankings.

It could turn out to be a fantastic outcome, but the manner in which it could be clinched would be less than impressive. Teams rise up the rankings when they win and tumble when they lose. Once they go up, it's tough for them to come down (at least much, anyway) without a loss simply because that's not how most voters roll.

Boise State can solidify top-five standing with a defeat of Virginia Tech in the season's opening week. But after that, how many legitimate top-25 teams will the Broncos face? Maybe Oregon State on Sept. 25? In a bigger stretch, perhaps Nevada the day after Thanksgiving? So if the Broncos can get up for a huge game --- as they have in sweeping a home-and-home from Oregon the last two years --- the door to a national title game appearance doesn't just swing open, it basically falls off its hinges after slamming against the wall.

Why? Because Boise State won't get severely penalized by many --- arguably, a substantial majority --- of voters just because the totality of their schedule is middling. (And that's nothing new; in the last four years, the titans of the Smurf Turf have played six ranked opponents, including three in bowl games. The only other ranked opponent outside the Oregon series was Hawaii in 2007). If it can somehow get into the top two, Boise will be difficult to dislodge due in large part to voting inertia.

But that's the system, even if it is severely flawed. And if the Broncos can exploit it after getting the shaft several times in recent years, bully for them.

This is all rendered moot if they can't beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day. But with 20 starters returning, Boise at least has a realistic chance to to undermine some stale conventional wisdom, and that's always both good and entertaining.

No. 6 VIRGINIA TECH

It's a Bizarro Year in Blacksburg, where up is down, black and white, and defense and special teams are the apparent question marks.

But Virginia Tech fans might want to scrutinize something else: What would the trickle down be if Bud Foster's unit didn't perform especially well.

Hint: It is one giant unknown, especially where quarterback Tyrod Taylor is concerned.

That seems counterintuitive, since Taylor has started 28 games over the last three seasons. But consider that in those starts, he's faced a deficit of more than a possession just five times.

Sure, he led a comeback from down 17-3 against North Carolina in 2008 (going 5-for-8 for 53 yards in three scoring drives in the second half; the Hokie rally included a 30-yard touchdown drive preceded by a fumble recovery and a 45-yard field goal set up by a Tar Heel personal foul).

There were also four setups with a deficit of at least two possessions --- Boston College and Miami in 2008, Alabama and Georgia Tech last year --- that didn't work out so well.

Presumably, a weaker defense would mean Taylor might get that chance from time to time this season. And if it happens against one of the more imposing teams on Virginia Tech's schedule, such as Boise State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina or Miami?

Well, check out Taylor's work against ranked teams in his career (of the games in 2007, Taylor only started against Clemson):

2007	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Louisiana State	9-44	1	7-18	62	0/0	67.82
at Clemson	15-118	0	7-14	65	1/0	112.57
at Virginia	9-17	2	4-6	39	0/0	121.27
vs. Boston College	9-36	0	3-6	28	0/0	89.20
vs. Kansas	5-(-2)	0	1-3	11	0/1	-2.53
2008	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Florida State	1-(-6)	0	0-0	0	0/0	---
vs. Boston College	11-30	2	11-19	84	0/1	84.51
vs. Cincinnati	15-47	1	13-22	140	0/1	103.45
2009	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
vs. Alabama	10-(-26)	0	9-20	91	0/0	83.22
Nebraska	9-(-22)	0	12-27	192	1/0	116.40
Miami	10-75	0	4-9	98	1/0	172.58
at Georgia Tech	13-63	1	10-14	159	1/2	161.83
Total (12 G-8 GS)	116-374	7	81-158	969	4/5	104.81

It's not a gigantic sample size, and Taylor obviously played well against his last two ranked opponents a season ago. Nonetheless, he doesn't seem like a guy who will win games on his own --- or produce multiple significant comebacks in a season.

The Hokies certainly possess some options in the running game, between Taylor himself and Ryan Williams (as well as Darren Evans and his surgically reconstructed knee). It might not be smart, though, to discount the impact of rebuilding the left side of the offensive line.

This entire discussion is based on the idea the Hokies will struggle on defense. Yet that hasn't happened since 2003.

VIRGINIA TECH, CONFERENCE DEFENSIVE RANKS, 2004-09

Year	Total	Rush	Pass	Score
2004	2	4	2	1
2005	1	2	2	1
2006	1	3	1	1
2007	1	2	4	1
2008	2	2	5	1
2009	2	4	2	1

At some point, the defensive system warrants a bit of trust. Foster passed that point a while ago, cranking out elite units even as players come and go. And it's not like the Hokies just neglect defensive talent in their recruiting efforts.

On the surface, yes, things appear to be different. But absolutely no one should be surprised if this turns out to be a typical Virginia Tech defense complemented by perhaps the program's best offense since joining the ACC.

Taylor's probably a dicier option when a rally is needed than Hokies fans probably realize (or care to admit), but here's guessing such heroics won't be needed all that much this year. There's a loss lurking somewhere along the way, but Virginia Tech looks like it should win the conference for the third time in four years.

Comments

[Andy]

It looks like the author conveniently forgot to mention how Tyrod did in his last drive against Nebraska from a year ago. Tyrod transformed into a complete quarterback during that game. He is easily the most underrated passer in the ACC and is set to surprise a lot of people this fall

[D1scourse]

Andy ---

Oh, there was no ignoring that game.

Lets not forget the Nebraska secondary didnt acquit itself particularly well on the long pass to Danny Coale to set up the game-winning score. Credit Taylor for some of that, but lousy coverage contributed significantly to that crucial play.

(Taylors touchdown pass three plays later, though, was pretty impressive).

Taylors played from more than a possession behind in five of his 28 career starts. Maybe hell be fine if the Hokies defense takes a dip after some significant personnel losses, but its very much in question whether Taylor (or, perhaps more on point, Virginia Techs offensive system) will hold up well under a scenario in which it gets caught in a shootout or three.

[MM]

D1scourse

I don't think you can say that it was lousy coverage. You have to give Tyrod credit for standing in the pocket to find Danny Coale. Tyrod's pump fake not only got Suh into the air, but also froze the whole secondary in which Coale was able to slip behind and make a great catch. That game was definitely not one of Tyrod's best performances, but he showed great poise in the last 2 minutes of the game.

For me I think Tyrod will have a great year, for the fact teams have to prepare for Ryan Williams and Darren Evans as well as Tyrod's running abilities. This is definitely going to open it up for Tyrod in the passing game with improving receivers such as Boykins and Coale. But like you said it will depend on how the new line holds up. Also we'll see how Stinespring will call the plays. We'll all see this fall!

GO HOKIES!

[Mike]

D1scourse - could some (if not all) of that "lousy coverage" on that play be credited to the fact that TT kept the play alive by scrambling around in the backfield and making the secondary come up to take him...meanwhile, one of our craftier WR's took advantage by going deep. The ball was also PERFECTLY thrown.

[D1scourse]

MM ---

First, the play in question, which I just watched far too many times in order to offer a reasoned reply (even if it contradicted what I remembered about it originally): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4WGOZVTCK4

The safeties floated back and probably would have been in the same spot regardless, but youre right that Suh and both corners reacted to the pump fake. Id argue the one covering Coale shouldnt have been so blatantly fooled since the fake was directed to the other side of the field, and that turned out to be a crucial error. So Taylor warrants credit, but I still think the corner shouldnt have been 12 yards behind Coale once the ball was out of Taylors hand. Would that have changed the plays ultimate outcome if it was a five-yard gap and the corner was already running? Realistically, probably not.

You also point out the great variable of play-calling for this year. Why do I have the feeling that will cause some angst for fans in Blacksburg this year?

[D1scourse]

Mike ---

Check out my last reply. Taylor does warrant some --- but not all --- of that credit.

[mark rowland]

two things happened with the taylor pump fake other than freezing the d line and perhaps the best d linemen weve seen in 30 years, ndamukong suh. Clearly the corner was looking back for the quick pass out route( pump fake), and 2) the safety bit hard on the fake and was also playing relatively a shallow field, which further hastened coale to be able to slip the safety deep down the sidelines. As for the defense of nebraska, look at the statistics of the 2009 husker defense. the black shirts defense was nearly back to form.

[D1scourse]

Mark ---

I think its safe to say I havent discounted Nebraskas defense for entirety of last season --- or for this year, for that matter.

http://d1scourse.typepad.com/blog/2010/07/college-football-countdown-nos-1-5.html

[Mason]

Maybe the reason he has rarely had to comeback from a large deficiet is because he is good enough to prevent his team from falling substantially behind?

[D1scourse]

Mason ---

Or, more likely, his defense created a comfortable margin for error.

In Taylors 28 starts, opponents have scored 20 points just eight times (Clemson 2007, Nebraska 2008, Boston College 2008, Florida State 2008, Alabama 2009, Duke 2009, Georgia Tech 2009, North Carolina 2009).

Virginia Tech has thrived because its defense is superb and it typically uses both special teams and turnovers to create short fields for a ball-control offense that hasnt been particularly special for much of the last four years. Nonetheless, the Hokies are effective at playing with a lead, something that happens frequently since the defense typically ranks among the strongest in the country. This isnt an interpretation of events so much as it is an obvious truth.

The whole point of this argument is what happens if that defense suddenly isnt so great. And for the most part, that is an unknown.

[Mason]

“And for the most part, that is an unknown.” I think this sentiment perfectly sums up why I feel it necessary to respond to a blogger of such little skill as yourself. Why waste my time? It might have something to do with the fact that I’m stuck in a soul-sucking job with far too much free time on my hands, or it might be because the smugness in your replies are matched only by the ineptitude displayed in your “research”.
Warning, this will probably be a long reply, and I won’t bother for the most part with spelling or syntax since I’ll be responding in a conversational style.

First things first. I can barely comprehend what point your trying to make with this “analysis” of the VT football team. My confusion started with the first line. “It's a Bizarro Year in Blacksburg, where up is down, black and white, and defense and special teams are the apparent question marks.” I won’t bother to paste anymore of this horrid writing for fear of my mouse’s right click button becoming violently ill. I’ll try to sum up your argument here.
1. VT defense is rebuilding (ok, fair point but I almost skipped the rest of the article thinking it was going to be a rehashing of every other VT offseason analysis)
2. Tyrod Taylor is the REAL question mark here if the defense underperforms (Well, now you have my attention. Tyrod Taylor, the senior, the 14th highest rated qb in the country last year is going to be the Hokies weak link? Maybe I will stick around.)
3. Tyrod Taylor has made a comeback before in 2008 (um, he seems to be arguing against himself, especially since he made that comeback as a true sophomore, but maybe he has some larger point to make)
4. But he has failed to make a comeback when down by more than 10 points on four occasions(…ok, I’m still waiting on his point here….Oh wait, that was his point?! That VT fans should be afraid of how the season is going to turn out because Tyrod Taylor has only led the team back from 10+ points down 1 out of 5 times he could be the weak link this year? And he readily admits that two of these “failures” occurred when Tyrod was playing as a true sophomore in a year Frank Beamer originally intended on redshirting him? This can’t be true. He must have some stats to back up his argument.)
5. Finally. Some stats…(Your kidding me… It’s at this point I know I’m wasting my time. Including a game vs FSU in the stat chart is UNBELIEVABLE. The only stat for Tyrod Taylor in that game is a sack. HE WAS INJURED ON THE ONE PLAY HE PARTICIPATED IN THE GAME! And these stats are defeating his own argument! Last year, Tyrod taylor failed to lead VT to victory after falling being 20+ to Alabama and GT. Look at the very stat chart you presented and you’ll see that tyrod had his 2nd highest rated game against GT! And if the author was smart enough to break it down into “crunchtime” numbers he’d see tyrod did even BETTER in the second half, while down, than he did in the first half. Oh, but Tyrod had a bad game vs Alabama! WHO DIDN’T YOU RANDOM BLOGGER! THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP! They had arguably the best defense in the country. So did Nebraska. But I like how you gazed over one of the most exciting comebacks of the year.)
6. Tyrod Taylor just doesn’t “seem” like a guy who will win games on his own (well, considering football is a team sport, it’s a rare individual who can claim to “win” a game on his own. Especially a QB, who has to rely on his O-line to block for him and his Recievers to catch the ball and his coaches to make the right calls… But are you really spending your VT preseason anaylsis to convince VT fans Tyrod Taylor isn’t a Mike Vick or Reggie Bush talent? I think we all knew that. At least, we all “seem” to.)
7. VT has “some” running options (My favorite part of the post. I like how he uses the very useful word “some”. As if Ryan Williams, all-time freshmen rusher, and Darren Evans, 2nd all time freshmen rusher, are just “some” runningbacks instead of the World class athletes they are. It’s an easy, easy argument to make that VT has the best backfield in the country. Plus, I love how the blogger just randomly starts talking about the VT running game. Not a fantastic flow to your thread bud)
8. VT’s defense has been amazing the past half decade. (Um, wtf. I thought we were talking about Tyrod Taylor?)
9. Here’s a graph to prove what we already know (um, again wtf. I thought you were extrapolating on what “seems” to be Tyrod’s lack of playmaking skills)
10. Don’t be surprised if VT’s defense is great this year too (ok, so you’re hedging your bets by saying “vt’s defense will suck, and Tyrod Taylor seems as if he won’t be able to win games when behind, but it won’t matter because VT has some running options and the defense rarely sucks.”)
11. Tech will win the conference. ( HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA…Silly blogger! If your going to have the guts to say that the 14th most efficient QB in the country last year(and many of those ranked higher either graduated or got drafted) doesn’t have the chops to lead his country to comebacks, at least have the guts to stick to the logical conclusion and pick them to NOT win the conference!)
This is the worst blog post I’ve seen all year.

Far and away my favorite part of this page though are the replies. The OP (original poster) is almost immediately called out for Tyrod bashing with no facts, and the Nebraska example is thrown in his face. The OP responds that it was the Defenses fault for losing the game, not giving Tyrod any credit. Eventually, the OP admits he was wrong about not giving him his due and all seems well in the world.

Then I, wishing to avoid a long blog post such as this, try to point out the fallacy in the OP’s original argument with a simple question.
“Maybe the reason he has rarely had to comeback from a large deficiet is because he is good enough to prevent his team from falling substantially behind?”
AAAAAAAAnd let the stupid response of all stupid responses begin! Completely disregarding the obvious flaw in his thinking, the OP says some generic stuff about how good the defense has been and then he drops this bombshell.
“Nonetheless, the Hokies are effective at playing with a lead, something that happens frequently since the defense typically ranks among the strongest in the country. This isnt an interpretation of events so much as it is an obvious truth.”
OH REALLY! AN OBVIOUS TRUTH?! You don’t say! Tyrod Taylor’s FANTASTIC winning percentage (I believe it’s the highest any QB not named Micheal Vick has in VT history) is due to VT’s ability to “play with a lead”. Hey idiot, who do you think is the QB while VT is playing with a lead? Tyrod Taylor! Who has to lead an offense to score in order to secure a lead? Tyrod Taylor! Who was the 14th MOST EFFICIENT QB IN THE COUNTRY LAST YEAR? TYROD TAYLOR!

Just when I think I’ve seen the pinnacle of football stupidity, the OP closes on this gem. “The whole point of this argument is what happens if that defense suddenly isnt so great. And for the most part, that is an unknown.”
LOL CATS! ROFL DOGS! Apparently the future is unknown! Hey! See this whole time, I thought you were making statements that you felt carried some heft, but ALAS! You know that the future is unknown! So whats the point in talking about it with an idiot like you? THERE IS NO POINT! I’VE WASTED AN ENTIRE DAY AT WORK TYPING UP A REPLY TO A GENIUS WHO KNOWS THAT THE FUTURE IS UNKNOWN!!!!

Hey, dude, next time you post something on the internet for the world to see bashing a standup guy like tyrod taylor who has always done what was asked of him, always been respectful and given everything for his team, and been an excellent role model to kids make sure you have some basis for doing so.
Not just your knowledge that we don’t know with 100 percent certainty what a world-class nice guy like Tyrod Taylor will do in the future.

[D1scourse]

Mason ---

You suck would have sufficed. And my sympathies for your soul-sucking job.

[furrer4heisman]

Mason

Calling D1scourse a "random blogger" shows your own inability to do research.

Do I disagree with his position on Tyrod? Absolutely. But I didn't go off the deep end like you did because I respect his opinion and respect him as a journalist.

He came to his own conclusion about Tyrod and the Hokies just like Hokie fans have theirs. And believe me, his is an informed opinion, unlike a lot of others.

[ckstevenson]

Someone who works with Mason at the soul-sucking job, please switch him over to decaf. WOW.