It's merely a week and a half before Maryland opens its preseason camp. Naturally, when things get underway, goals will be bandied about.
Ten wins. ACC title. All sorts of fun stuff.
On the flip side, some more grounded folks connected with the program will offer up the "one-game-at-a-time" mantra that will be dutifully be reported only by those who feel bound by law to dip into the Big Bag of Sportswriters Cliches as often as possible.
So let's take the middle ground, and look ahead in a realistic manner. Teams only jump from two wins to BCS games so often, so how about a break-even season and a trip to a bowl game?
That would make for a four-win improvement, which isn't exactly unprecedented. It's happened 39 times in the conference's 57-year existence.
BEST IMPROVEMENTS IN WINS, ACC HISTORY
7: 1979 Wake Forest (1-10 in 1978, 8-4 in '79)
7: 2006 Wake Forest (4-7 in 2005, 11-3 in '06)
6: 1963 North Carolina (3-7 in 1962, 9-2 in '63)
6: 1976 North Carolina (3-7-1 in 1975, 9-3 in '76)
6: 1981 Clemson (6-5 in 1980, 12-0 in '81)
5: 1963 N.C. State (3-6-1 in 1962, 8-3 in '63)
5: 1972 N.C. State (3-8 in 1971, 8-3-1 in '72)
5: 1977 Clemson (3-6-2 in 1976, 8-3-1 in '77)
5: 1977 N.C. State (3-7-1 in 1976, 8-4 in '77)
5: 1982 Georgia Tech (1-10 in 1981, 6-5 in '82)
5: 1986 N.C. State (3-8 in 1985, 8-3-1 in '86)
5: 1987 Virginia (3-8 in 1986, 8-4 in '87)
5: 1990 North Carolina (1-10 in 1989, 6-4-1 in '90)
5: 1992 Wake Forest (3-8 in 1991, 8-4 in '92)
5: 1994 Duke (3-8 in 1993, 8-4 in '94)
5: 1995 Georgia Tech (1-10 in 1994, 6-5 in '95)
5: 2001 Maryland (5-6 in 2000, 10-2 in '01)
4: 1957 North Carolina (2-7-1 in 1956, 6-4 in '57)
4: 1957 N.C. State (3-7 in 1956, 7-1-2 in '57)
4: 1960 Duke (4-6 in 1959, 8-3 in '60)
4: 1961 Virginia (0-10 in 1960, 4-6 in '61)
4: 1964 Wake Forest (1-9 in 1963, 5-5 in '64)
4: 1967 N.C. State (5-5 in 1966, 9-2 in '67)
4: 1973 Duke (2-8-1 in 1972, 6-5 in '73)
4: 1979 Virginia (2-9 in 1978, 6-5 in '79)
4: 1981 Duke (2-9 in 1980, 6-5 in '81)
4: 1982 Maryland (4-6-1 in 1981, 8-4 in '82)
4: 1983 Virginia (2-9 in 1982, 6-5 in '83)
4: 1988 N.C. State (4-7 in 1987, 8-3-1 in '88)
4: 1989 Georgia Tech (3-8 in 1988, 7-4 in '89)
4: 1990 Georgia Tech (7-4 in 1989, 11-0-1 in '90)
4: 1993 Clemson (5-6 in 1992, 9-3 in '93)
4: 1999 Wake Forest (3-8 in 1998, 7-5 in '99)
4: 2001 Wake Forest (2-9 in 2000, 6-5 in '01)
4: 2002 N.C. State (7-5 in 2001, 11-3 in '02)
4: 2002 Virginia (5-7 in 2001, 9-5 in '02)
4: 2006 Maryland (5-6 in 2005, 9-4 in '06)
4: 2007 Virginia (5-7 in 2007, 9-4 in '07)
4: 2008 North Carolina (4-8 in 2007, 8-5 in '08)
That's a lot of raw data; here's something a little more relevant --- how often a four-game or better turnaround has occurred by decade:
1950s: 2
1960s: 6
1970s: 7
1980s: 9
1990s: 7
2000s: 8
For the last 30 years, it's happened at an eight-in-10 clip. Not bad --- and definitely not impossible to reach.
So who has the best chance to pull it off this year in the ACC? Well, Georgia Tech cannot; it won 11 games last year and only plays 14 this year. Scratch the Yellow Jackets off the list.
Similarly, Virginia Tech can only pull it off if it goes 14-0. That doesn't seem particularly likely, but its odds might be better than Virginia winning seven games and Duke or Wake Forest collecting nine victories. North Carolina getting to a dozen wins is also a stretch. Ditto Clemson going 13-1 or 14-0.
Of the remaining teams, some longshots still exist. But they're at least possibilities.
1. Florida State (7-6 in 2009): Can the Seminoles win 11 games for the first time since 2000? If they get 14 games to do it, it's certainly possible. The nonconference schedule (Oklahoma, Brigham Young, Florida) isn't helpful for the task, and Florida State is perpetually overrated. But if someone's going to make a four-game improvement, it might just be Jimbo Fisher's first team.
2. Maryland (2-10): The Terrapins have the benefit of both regression to the mean working in their favor and a whole lot of room for improvement. If Maryland merely wins its home games against non-bowl teams from a year ago, it will have five victories. There's a truckload of questions and the offensive line warrants scrutiny until it proves otherwise. The Terps, though, aren't an awful candidate for a modest turnaround if things break right.
3. Miami (9-4): Asking for 13 wins in an awfully tall order, especially for a team as inconsistent as the Hurricanes. They should be better, maybe even good enough to win the Coastal Division and the conference. That would put Miami in the 10-11 win range, maybe even 12. But a four-game improvement would be awfully tough, even with a burgeoning talent base in Coral Gables.
4. Boston College (8-5): A perfect nonconference record is possible (the Eagles get Notre Dame at home in the signature game of the four), and the league schedule is about as inviting as possible. There's enough questions in the passing game to make 12-2 a considerable stretch, but no one should be surprised if Boston College winds up with a better record than a season ago.
5. N.C. State (5-7): If this was a video game, the Wolfpack would be No. 1 on the list. Why? Well, Russell Wilson would lead a potent offense and there's a chance the system could be gamed to recover onside kick after onside kick. Most importantly, there would be a way for N.C. State to avoid its usual season-ending injury per week. Alas, it's real life, and the Wolfpack will probably be stuck laboring toward a season within a game of .500 --- as usual.
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