(The ninth of 12 ACC team previews)
How you start isn't as important as how you finish --- unless, of course, you finish about where you start.
That's the story of Virginia Tech's time in the ACC, when the Hokies have demonstrated a remarkable level of consistency (at least 10 wins in six straight seasons) and a proclivity for hitting expectations almost on the noggin.
To wit:
VIRGINIA TECH STARTING AND FINAL AP RANKINGS, 2005-2009
| Year | Start |
Finish |
Net |
| 2005 | 8 | 7 | +1 |
| 2006 | 17 | 19 | -2 |
| 2007 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| 2008 | 17 | 15 | +2 |
| 2009 | 7 | 10 | -3 |
| Avg. |
11.6 | 12.0 | -0.4 |
So, with this data in hand and the knowledge Virginia Tech opens its season Monday against Boise State as the nation's No. 10 team, there doesn't seem to be much reason to doubt the Hokies belong (and probably will wind up) somewhere in that neighborhood at season's end.
The next question, naturally, is whether Virginia Tech fans --- whipped into a frenzy thanks to a senior quarterback, more running backs than the team really knows what to do with and the continued presence of a magician in the defensive coordinator spot --- would be disappointed with winding up in roughly the same place as the journey began.
A No. 10 final ranking would probably mean there will be a couple losses to go with another double-digit win season. Heck, the Hokies lost three times last year and wound up in that spot.
It could be a telling year in Blacksburg. Not because the Hokies start in the top 10; that's obviously nothing new. But Virginia Tech had a top-50 offense last year for the first time since 2003, so fans have reason to dream of a unit that can achieve something a little more than adequacy.
If it doesn't, there still might be a sheen of disappointment if the Hokies meet expectations and little else.
When we last saw them ...: Virginia Tech authoritatively collected a second bowl win in as many seasons for the first time in school history, demolishing Tennessee in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in what would ultimately be the end of the Lane Kiffin Interregnum in Knoxville.
It was the 10th victory of the year for the Hokies, keeping them right alongside Texas as the only programs to reach that plateau every season since 2004.
Virginia Tech didn't haul home a third straight ACC title, but life was still good. Tyrod Taylor made strides as a junior, and Ryan Williams emerged as a star in the place of Darren Evans. In short, it was exactly the sort of season expected from the Hokies.
Biggest question: The Hokies are good just about everywhere, and that includes an inexperienced defense that maybe hasn't generated the sort of faith it should.
Even if it's a down year for Virginia Tech's defense, it will still be among the best units in the ACC --- perhaps even the league's best thanks to an assist from North Carolina's implosion.
There will be a measure of hilarity when, around the beginning of November, there are predictable articles at both a local and national level written about how well the Hokies' defense is performing. One reason for such a slew of pub is Virginia Tech will clean up against a toothless October schedule. The other is that Bud Foster will go ahead and do his normal routine and make the Hokies formidable regardless of who's playing for him.
Biggest asset: The trendy thing to say is running backs, what with Williams back, Evans healthy and true sophomore David Wilson set to play in some capacity.
The success of all three of them will have as much to do with the rebuilt left side of the offensive line playing well as it does with their own impressive abilities. As good as Williams is, it wouldn't be stunning if he falls a little shy of his 5.6 yards per carry from last season. There's a real chance the holes just won't be quite as big this time around.
The common question of whether there are enough carries for Williams and Evans to coexist is sort of funny. With the way Virginia Tech plays, there's enough of a load for two men. The Hokies' top three tailbacks last year combined for 430 carries --- or just a tick more than 33 rushes a game. Give two-thirds to Williams and a third to Evans and voila, two effective rushers.
Factoring in a third guy could be a little tougher. But Wilson averaged 5.7 yards a rush last year, and at a minimum he's a superb insurance policy in case Williams or Evans gets hurt.
Best case: The Hokies overwhelm Boise State in the opener, shooting into the top five. They escape an early trip to Boston College with a win, roll through October and then summon their best games against Georgia Tech and Miami. After ruthlessly dispatching the Atlantic Division champ in the ACC title game with a multi-pronged rushing attack and a rapidly maturing defense, coach Frank Beamer gets his second crack at a national title and his first since the 1999 season.
Worst case: Boise State takes advantage of its chance to take out the Hokies, all but extinguishing any national title hopes before Labor Day is over. The defense doesn't grow up as quickly as expected, and there's losses both plausible (Georgia Tech, Miami) and less-than-expected (N.C. State? North Carolina?) lurking later in the schedule.
The Hokies limp home at 8-4 --- an enviable season for plenty of their conference brethren --- and find themselves in the odd spot of going to a mid-tier bowl and promptly demolish the unsuspecting team they draw in El Paso or Charlotte.
Where we'll see them in three months: Packing their bags for the Orange Bowl.
There's no perfect team, of course, which is why Virginia Tech fans can harbor some national title dreams. Alabama lost a lot of its defense. Ohio State has a way of flopping against athletic teams. Texas has questions at quarterback. Boise State's schedule strength will work against it. Florida is down Tim Tebow. Oklahoma's running game can be questioned. On and on it goes.
But the Hokies aren't without little flaws. No, there are no gaping holes, but how the offensive line plays and whether defensive reserves from last year are ready for larger roles remains in question.
There's also the elephant in the room: Can the offense carry the defense if need be, a reverse of the ACC championship teams of 2007 and 2008. It hasn't happened in a while for a Beamer-coached team.
The national consensus is the Hokies are a borderline top-10 team. Virginia Tech --- whether as a function of impressive consistency or boring predictability --- can be counted upon to land in that neighborhood.
So here's the guess. The Hokies have a loss or two come the start of December, enough to keep them out of the national title hunt but squarely in control of the ACC. That's easy enough to peg.
The better question is whether an 11-1 or 10-2 team with no BCS championship hopes will maintain a grip on the collective imaginations of an invested fan base. That, more than anything Williams or Taylor or anyone else pull off, could be the most fascinating dynamic in what is sure to be another strong season.
Recent Comments