Preseason vs. reality: ACC basketball

So the ACC preseason poll was released on Wednesday, which naturally begs the question: Who will fail to meet and exceed expectations.

Since the expansion to 12 teams, the biggest overachiever is Florida State, which has finished an average of 2.5 spots better than where it was picked over the last five years. The Seminoles were pegged as the league's fifth-place team this week.

Virginia Tech is the second biggest overachiever, outpacing expectations by 1.6 standings positions. Maryland, on average, picks up one spot over preseason projections.

The biggest underachiever --- by far --- is Georgia Tech at 2.4 places below the average.

Duke and North Carolina predictably have an average of "underachieving," but that's mainly because one shaky season (Duke 2007, North Carolina 2010) can make things look bad when a team is pegged to finish in the top two year after year. In fact, Virginia Tech of this year is the first non-Duke/Carolina team to get picked for the top two since Boston College in 2006.

(A point on methodology. A tie in the standings is averaged together. So if two teams tie for third, each gets 3.5 for the season. If three teams tie for third, each gets 4.0 for the season).

ACC BASKETBALL, EXPECTATIONS vs. RESULTS 2006-2010

Team	Picked	Finish	Net
Florida State	8.4	5.9	+2.5
Virginia Tech	7.6	6.0	+1.6
Virginia	9.6	8.1	+1.5
Maryland	6.0	5.0	+1.0
Boston College	6.6	6.2	+0.4
Clemson	6.2	6.2	0.0
Miami	8.8	9.1	-0.3
Duke	1.7	2.7	-1.0
North Carolina	2.1	3.1	-1.0
Wake Forest	6.6	7.7	-1.1
N.C. State	8.0	9.2	-1.2
Georgia Tech	6.4	8.8	-2.4

Maybe the most amazing part of this chart is that no one other than Duke or North Carolina was picked on average to finish in the top five (Maryland is third at 6.0, barely projected as a top-half-of-the-ACC team on an annual basis).

Comments

[Colm]

"Maybe the most amazing part of this chart is that no one other than Duke or North Carolina was picked on average to finish in the top five."

That is both fascinating and infuriating.

[Eric]

A point to make about your Spiffy Chart - teams at both ends of the specturm are limited by how much they can over/under-achieve. In other words, you can't over-achieve if you're picked first.

[D1scourse]

Eric ---

Correct. I thought the Duke/Carolina comment sort of alluded to that, but its certainly possible I wasnt specific enough.

The greatest flaw in this chart is the limited sample size. One year still throws everything out of whack --- Duke would have a net of zero if 2007 was deleted, and Carolina would actually be slightly positive if last year was tossed out. I might try something a little more simplistic over a larger period of time in a little bit.

As for the other end of things, it is indeed easier for a Virginia to overachieve when it is consistently pegged for the bottom.