All 128 ACC Atlantic Division scenarios in one place

With four teams and seven games still relevant to the ACC's Atlantic Division race, there are 128 scenarios that could come out of the division.

(For those without much of a stats background, that number comes from taking two --- the number of outcomes possible --- to the seventh power, i.e. 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2).

Anyway, this was a quirky project for a flight from Fort Lauderdale to Baltimore on the way back from the Maryland-Miami game. Needless to say, three pages of my notebook now look like Kryptonian symbols.

Of the 128 scenarios, Florida State wins in 38 of them, N.C. State in 33, Maryland in 31 and Clemson in 25.

And then there's the trainwreck scenario. That's the fun one.

Suppose Florida State loses to Clemson but beats Maryland. And the Terrapins upend Virginia and N.C. State. Oh, and the Wolfpack has to beat Wake Forest and North Carolina. Finally --- and perhaps least likely --- Clemson has to lose at Wake Forest. Then again, it's Clemson, so nothing should be counted out.

That creates a three-way tie at 5-3 between Florida State, Maryland and N.C. State. The group would be 1-1 against each other, and all three teams would have the same division record, losses to Clemson, wins against Boston College and Wake Forest and no common games against non-division teams.

That takes things down to step No. 7 on the eight-step tiebreaker list, which is the team with the highest ranking in the BCS standings at the end of the conference regular season --- unless the teams are within five spots of each other. Seeing as how none of the three are in the top 25 of this week's BCS standings, hilarity could ensue.

Step No. 8, by the way, is "the representative shall be chosen by a draw." Fun times.

So one of the 128 scenarios falls under "unknown" --- an amusing potential outcome to say the least. As for the other 127. Read on after the jump.

FLORIDA STATE (38)

FSU-CU	FSU-UM	UM-UVA	UM-NCSU	NCSU-WF	NCSU-UNC	CU-WF	Winner	Notes
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	FSU (5-3)	---
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	---
CU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	FSU (5-3)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	FSU (5-3)	---

Quick tidbit: If Florida State loses to Clemson on Saturday, the Seminoles will be eliminated if Clemson follows it up with a defeat of Wake Forest.

N.C. STATE (33)

FSU-CU	FSU-UM	UM-UVA	UM-NCSU	NCSU-WF	NCSU-UNC	CU-WF	Winner	Notes
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	HTH: FSU
FSU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	HTH: FSU
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	HTH: FSU
FSU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	CU	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	NCSU	WF	NCSU (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	WF	NCSU (5-3)	---
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	WF	NCSU (5-3)	---

Quick tidbit: The only way N.C. State could win the division without beating Maryland is if the Wolfpack is 5-2 entering the finale, Maryland is 3-4 and Clemson has beaten Florida State and lost to Wake Forest.

MARYLAND (31)

FSU-CU	FSU-UM	UM-UVA	UM-NCSU	NCSU-WF	NCSU-UNC	CU-WF	Winner	Notes
FSU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	WF	UNC	CU	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	UM	WF	UNC	WF	UM (6-2)	---
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	CU	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
FSU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	WF	UNC	CU	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	UM	WF	UNC	WF	UM (6-2)	---
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	---
CU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	WF	UM (5-3)	HTH: NCSU
CU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	---
CU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	WF	UM (5-3)	---
CU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	WF	UM (5-3)	---

Quick tidbit: Maryland must defeat Florida State to have any chance to win the division.

CLEMSON (25)

FSU-CU	FSU-UM	UM-UVA	UM-NCSU	NCSU-WF	NCSU-UNC	CU-WF	Winner	Notes
CU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU, UM & NCSU
CU	FSU	UM	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
CU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
CU	FSU	UM	UM	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & UM
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
CU	FSU	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU & NCSU
CU	FSU	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: FSU
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM & NCSU
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM & NCSU
CU	UM	UM	NCSU	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM & NCSU
CU	UM	UVA	UM	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UVA	UM	WF	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: UM
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	NCSU	UNC	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: NCSU
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	HTH: NCSU
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	NCSU	CU	CU (5-3)	---
CU	UM	UVA	NCSU	WF	UNC	WF	CU (4-4)	HTH: FSU, UM & NCSU

Quick tidbit: Clemson is done with a loss to Florida State. The Tigers are also the only team that can win the division at 4-4.

Comments

[ngaterp]

Two things going into the UVA game; (1) we better have a serious chip on our shoulder after the last two home games against these guys & (2) if we can't beat UVA then we do not need to be in your 128 scenarios....

[afstu]

This is insane. But interesting. :) Go Hokies!

[Andrew Zitnay]

You say md's done with a fsu loss, but that doesn't take the trainwreck scenario into account. I like our chances in that draw :).

[Matt]

Actually in the scenario where Clemson wins with a 4-4 record, you didn't take into account the possibility of BC beating UVA and Duke and also finishing 4-4. There would be 5 way tie at 4-4 atop the Atlantic.

[D1scourse]

Matt ---

Id actually included that in a post the other night.

Clemson wins the five-way tie, too, which is why I didnt bother to spell it out again.

But, what the heck:

Clemson 3-1 (W-FSU, NCSU, Md.; L-BC)
NCSU 3-1 (W-FSU, Md., BC; L-Clemson)
Md 2-2 (W-FSU, BC; L-Clemson, NCSU)
FSU 1-3 (W-BC; L-Clemson, NCSU, Md.)
BC 1-3 (W-Clemson; L-NCSU, Md., FSU)

Clemson takes it over N.C. State based on head to head win.

[Daren Helms]

If NC State takes care of business, beats Wake, UNC, and Maryland, it doesn't matter what happens with Maryland, FSU, or Clemson. If FSU wins out and NC State wins out, doesn't the Wolfpack get the tie-breaker from beating the Seminoles?

[D1scourse]

Daren ---

Correct. N.C. State collects the division if it wins out.

[Ross]

Your trainwreck scenario isnt correct at all. If Clemson beats FSU and loses to Wake then Clemson's record is 4-4 not 5-3. If Clemson wins both and finishes at 5-3, then it wins the tie-breaker because they would have beaten FSU, Maryland, and NCSU.

[D1scourse]

Ross ---

Youre misinterpreting what the trainwreck scenario is.

The three-way tie at 5-3 between Florida State, Maryland and N.C. State (with the Clemson loss to Wake to fall to 4-4) could go all the way to a blind draw, which is much uglier than simply a four- or five-way tie that Clemson clearly wins.

[Dave]

looking forward to the update tomorrow?

[D1scourse]

Perhaps as soon as I make it home.