Projecting ACC basketball

Hey, it's college basketball season, everyone! Before things get underway tonight, there's time to run through the ACC (here) and a offer up a 68-team field for March (no bracketing of teams until January. Promise).

There's a little bit of a "show-me" attitude to these picks, a lot like last year the D1scourse projections for Georgetown and Georgia Tech were well outside the top 25. That means a certain lack of faith in N.C. State, though the Wolfpack should be in contention for an NCAA tournament berth.

Let's get to it ...

1. DUKE

Best-case: Kyrie Irving is an even better backcourt option than Jon Scheyer was, Seth Curry sizzles after sitting our a season and Mason Plumlee becomes a frontcourt force. Duke pulverizes the rest of the ACC, joining 1999 Duke as the only teams to run the table in the conference. The Blue Devils then go on to repeat as national champions for the second time under Mike Krzyzewski.

Worst-case: Duke sputters at times and still winds up 12-4 in the conference, naturally winning three games in as many days in Greensboro. However, a year after receiving a dream draw, the Blue Devils get a particularly stiff bracket and their outside shooting goes cold in the regional semifinals.The repeat dreams die four wins from another national title.

Best guess: Duke will win the ACC, both regular season and tournament, and will be deserving of a No. 1 seed. Things won't break quite so well this year, and despite having more talent than in 2010, Duke will fall in the Elite Eight or Final Four.

Projected: 28-3, 14-2 ACC

2. VIRGINIA TECH

Best-case: The Hokies become this year's version of 2010 Maryland, right down to the feisty guard who is an extension of an intense head coach, a sidekick in the backcourt who doesn't receive as much credit as he warrants and a veteran undersized forward who holds everything together. The Hokies have no heartburn on Selection Sunday, rolling to a No. 3 seed after tying Duke for the regular-season conference title.

Worst-case: Virginia Tech is done in by depth issues. The Hokies' freshmen don't develop fast enough, and the Hokies find themselves back in usual territory --- squarely on the bubble --- come Selection Sunday.

Best guess: The upside for the season took a hit when J.T. Thompson suffered an ACL tear in September. Still, there's too much here not to believe Virginia Tech will be near the top of the ACC and well on its way to the NCAA tournament. The nonconference schedule is vastly improved, so that won't knock the Hokies out of contention this year. This will be a good, solid second-round team, with the possibility of making it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament with the right draw.

Projected: 22-8, 11-5 ACC

3. NORTH CAROLINA

Best-case: To start off, Harrison Barnes  demonstrates he is a hardwood deity and lives up to the hype of being a potential No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick. Tyler Zeller stays healthy and produces a superlative season inside, John Henson develops and Larry Drew II (or, in a pinch, Kendall Marshall) brings stability to the point. The Tar Heels leave last year's nightmare behind and assume their usual perch among the top two in the conference.

Worst-case: Barnes is simply an above-average player rather than a messiah, Zeller's hard-luck career finds a new bump, Drew and Marshall can't run the offense and interior depth comes back and haunts a Coca-Cola-chugging Roy Williams. Carolina winds up 8-8 in the conference  and somehow finds itself in danger of another NIT trip.

Best guess:  There will be good days and bad for the Tar Heels; they'll lose to one of the league's dreadful teams, but also knock off Duke in the regular-season finale. This won't be a Final Four bunch, but there will be progress and no extended spells of disinterest. Like Virginia Tech, the Tar Heels could win a couple NCAA tournament games, and that would be a step forward.

Projected: 24-7, 11-5 ACC

4. FLORIDA STATE

Best-case: Michael Snaer emerges as a star, Chris Singleton's all-around game becomes much better known, Xavier Gibson more than makes up for the loss of Solomon Alabi and Derwin Kitchen grows into being a point guard. Oh, and Leonard Hamilton realizes he can out-athlete 75 percent of his opponents and sets his players loose. A Sweet 16 appearance ensues.

Worst-case: Gibson doesn't bust out and Singleton shows a fondness for hanging out on the perimeter, leaving the Seminoles to get roasted inside. Snaer's development sputters, and Florida State's newcomers offer only a little in sporadic playing time. The Seminoles finish in the middle of the pack, grateful the moving target that is NCAA tournament inclusion is just a little bit wider this year with the field's expansion to 68 teams.

Best guess: Florida State, despite its talent, was outscored on a per-game basis last year by Boston College and its high school flex offense. Think about that. The Seminoles aren't going to run as much as they should, and as a result they won't take one of their best weapons out of its sheath. No matter. Florida State should again make the NCAA tournament, but it could be another case of one-and-done in Tallahassee.

Projected: 21-9, 10-6 ACC

5. MARYLAND

Best-case: Cliff Tucker can score 15 points a night given 30 minutes each game, Jordan Williams handles double teams with ease, a huge freshman class can contribute immediately and Gary Williams extracts as much as he can as Maryland somehow wins a dozen ACC games. Gary Williams gets irked when it's pointed out his team pulled that off with the help of season sweeps of Boston College, Virginia and Wake Forest, and the fired-up Terps make a surprise Sweet 16 run.

Worst-case: Maryland's three seniors play like the complementary pieces they've been for three years, and there isn't enough help for returning holdovers Jordan Williams and Sean Mosley to get much traction. Despite a surplus of athleticism, the Terps can't handle a halfcourt game and wind up in 7-9/8-8 territory in the conference and wind up missing the NCAA tournament.

Best guess: It could be an up and down season, but the conference schedule provides a bit of a cushion and Gary Williams will find some way to get the most out of his team. Freshmen Pe'Shon Howard and Terrell Stoglin contribute enough to make the backcourt work appropriately, and Maryland winds up between a No. 8 and No. 11 seed come March.

Projected: 21-10, 9-7 ACC

6. CLEMSON

Best-case: Demontez Stitt thrives while running new coach Brad Brownell's motion offense, and big men Jerai Grant and Devin Booker play well to give the Tigers plenty of interior toughness. Despite a handful of hiccups, Clemson remains an NCAA tournament team --- yet winds up with a Purnellian result once March arrives and is ousted after the first round.

Worst-case: The switch in philosophies is a shock to Clemson's collective system, and players recruited for an up-tempo scheme struggle almost from the start. The Tigers deal with identity issues all season and sink to around eighth or ninth and wind up ticketed for the NIT after three straight NCAA berths.

Best guess: I'm admittedly more optimistic about Clemson than most, in part because the Tigers return much from Purnell's final team (though Trevor Booker) isn't back. The question is how much the transition fouls things up. The guess here is Brownell's a pretty smart guy, and will tweak as needed. Clemson might not have a huge upside, but it can still be an NCAA tournament team.

Projected: 19-11, 8-8 ACC

7. N.C. STATE

Best-case: Coach Sidney Lowe's coveted recruiting class more than lives up to the hype, with Lorenzo Brown, Ryan Harrow and C.J. Leslie teaming up with Tracy Smith and the rest of the Wolfpack's holdovers to lift them higher than the double-digit ACC tournament seeds that have defined Lowe's tenure. Much, much higher. Oh, and to make things even better, State sweeps North Carolina. This is best-case, after all.

Worst-case: It's 2007-08 all over again in Raleigh. The pieces fit together terribly and Lowe finds himself in an incredibly frustrating situation. The Wolfpack misses the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in as many years since Lowe took over, and athletic director Debbie Yow makes a predictable change at season's end.

Best guess: Lowe (whether he's wearing his Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat or not) has more talent at his disposal than at any stage of his stint at State. It's not unreasonable to expect him to cobble together an NCAA tournament berth out of it, even if erratic play is to be anticipated from the newcomers. Would, say, a No. 9 seed in the NCAAs keep people happy? That's tough to say.

Projected: 20-10, 8-8 ACC

8. MIAMI

Best-case: Durand Scott is every bit as good as he was in the ACC tournament, Malcolm Grant and Adrian Thomas hit a ton of 3-pointers, Reggie Johnson emerges as a legitimate ACC big man and Rion Brown and/or Erik Swoope provide just the sort of lift from a newcomer that Frank Haith's team needs to get back to the NCAA tournament.

Worst-case: Something terrible happens, be it a spate of injuries, Scott's regression or just a team-wide epidemic of lousy shooting. No team knows Murphy's Law quite like the Hurricanes. The problems doom Miami to yet another NIT berth, though it will be tough to tell if anyone is really paying attention if The U goes down that road again. LeBron, after all, has brought his talents to South Beach and will ensure the Hurricanes generate even less buzz than usual, for better or for worse.

Best guess: Miami should be improved, and a complete pain to deal with in its little arena. If one of the mid-tier teams falters, Miami is the most likely to take a step toward becoming an NCAA tournament team. The projection here is NIT, but a losing season would be more of a surprise than Haith's second NCAA invite.

Projected: 19-12, 7-9 ACC

9. GEORGIA TECH

Best-case: That college basketball really is a guards' game, since the Yellow Jackets don't have much size to speak of after the losses of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal. Iman Shumpert plays more within himself and doesn't commit nearly as many turnovers, and other backcourt pieces improve enough to allow Georgia Tech to run nearly all game. An athleticism surplus helps the Yellow Jackets pull some surprises and remain in the NCAA tournament hunt deep into the season.

Worst-case: Georgia Tech's turnover epidemic becomes so severe the CDC is called in. Meanwhile, opponents abuse the Yellow Jackets inside, getting Tech's handful of forwards into foul trouble on a regular basis and forcing far too many on-the-fly lineup adjustments. The Yellow Jackets absorb their fourth losing season in six years, and cries about Paul Hewitt's continued employment grow loud again.

Best guess: The Yellow Jackets will pull an upset or two, but they'll be utterly confounding at times as well. Nothing new, basically, except for the fact the ceiling is far lower without Favors and Lawal than it was with them. Hewitt might need to do his best coaching job --- even better than his Final Four run in 2004 --- to coax an NCAA berth out of his team.

Projected: 17-14, 6-10 ACC

10. BOSTON COLLEGE

Best-case: Reggie Jackson is even better with some freedom, Joe Trapani enjoys a strong senior season and Boston College plays as smart as it can with limited man power to squeak out a winning record in Steve Donahue's first season.

Worst-case: Offseason attrition and Al Skinner's inability to bring in warm bodies on the recruiting trail conspire to leave the Eagles short-handed when injuries strike. Toss in learning a new system, and the Eagles have a chance to endure their worst season since a 6-21 debacle in 1998-99.

Best guess: Donahue did well at Cornell, but it took him time to build the Big Red. He inherits a couple of interesting pieces --- Corey Raji could be in for a particularly solid season. But a postseason trip would be an extreme bonus. Nonetheless, there could be some excitement in Chestnut Hill --- enough to make the Eagles an annoying team to play on the road.

Projected: 15-15, 6-10 ACC

11. VIRGINIA

Best-case: Coach Tony Bennett's first recruiting class of his own in Charlottesville comes in and immediately makes a positive impact, securing multiple starting jobs and leading the Cavaliers to the middle of the ACC pack.

Worst-case:  None of the freshmen are ready and Virginia has to take a step back before it moves forward under Bennett.

Best guess: Closer to worst-case than best. Bennett only has four recruited scholarship players who took the floor for Dave Leitao (Mustapha Farrakhan, Mike Scott, Assane Sene, Sammy Zeglinski) and this is a legitimate transition year, so expectations should be understandably modest for the Cavaliers. They'll play hard, no question, and there will be some glimmers of hope. But they'll take some lumps, too.

Projected: 13-17, 4-12 ACC

12. WAKE FOREST

Best-case: Jeff Bzdelik creates some amazing schemes, C.J. Harris matures into a first-team all-ACC performer and the Demon Deacons overcome a young, thin roster to reach the NIT.

Worst-case: Wake does everything imaginable to finish 13th in a 12-team league.

Best guess: It's going to be a long year in the Dash. Only three members of last year's rotation return (Harris, Ari Stewart and Gary Clark), and none of them have much size. For nearly every question Wake has, the answer is "a freshman!" Granted, the Demon Deacons (or, more specifically, Bzdelik predecessor Dino Gaudio) hauled in a decent class. But it would be a shock to see Wake wearing its home whites in an ACC tournament game come March.

Projected: 12-19, 2-14 ACC

Comments

[Riley]

I think Wake Forest is going to surprise some people this year. With the offense that we run, size inside may not be as big of a problem as it appears to be. Terrell and McKie are going to have huge years, and will both put up 20+ on some nights. I think 2-14 is a little unrealistic, but certainly could see a 4-12 or 5-11.

[D1scourse]

Riley ---

I guess at this point, I have a hard time seeing Wakes path to victory. Or maybe I do and realize its not going to be a whole lot of fun to actually watch.

On the bright side, the Demon Deacons will be coached up pretty good. Theyll stand a decent shot in whatever close games they find themselves in.

Maybe 2-14 is harsh. But I would be genuinely surprised at something better than 4-12.

[RnR_NCSU]

Patrick, I think you're being overly pessimistic about the Pack this year. The chemistry issues that plagued '07 won't be there in '10 as all of these kids are Lowe's.

I think State finishes no worse than 5th in the league standings and possibly as high as 2nd. Yes, 2nd. They get tested early in out-of-conference action against Wisconsin and Syracuse on the road, which should be enough of a culture shock to the freshmen to get them properly focused by the time conference season rolls around.

There's talented depth at nearly every position and flexibility to go small, large or any combo in between.

The one stumbling point may be if Sidney insists on constantly tweaking the lineup throughout the year instead of putting the best five on the floor for the maximum amount of minutes. Fingers crossed, he's evolved past those growing pains as a college coach.

The schedule does us no favors, but I think this team is a lock for the tournament and will be tested enough to make a possible trip to the Sweet 16, if not further.

[D1scourse]

RnR ---

I certainly can acknowledge Im more pessimistic about State than most, though I think the better word to use is skeptical. But Id rather temper my expectations than go gonzo on a team anyone should be willing to admit is going to rely on newcomers.

Also, remember where Im coming from. Im as guilty as anyone of trusting what their eyes tell them. Most of the games Ive closely watched the Wolfpack in person under Lowe are against Maryland, and I dont need to tell you how all of those turned out. That certainly plays a role in my caution as well.

I do think State makes the tournament; Im just not sold on the Wolfpack as being a serious conference contender.

[RnR_NCSU]

We've certainly struggled against Gary over the last five years. Ol' dude has our number for sure. (GVasquez certainly had a big hand over the last few years, as well).

I went to see State's incoming class play in Durham at the NC Pro Am against UNC's crew, and they held their own quite well and nearly bested them, were it not for a freakish performance from Reggie Bullock.

Not saying there's a TON of stock that can be placed into those games, but I know players on both sides that night took that one game very seriously and it's clear there's a ton of talent suiting up for State.

And as the one-and-done rule continues to shift the age of impact players in college basketball younger rather than older, we--as pundits--are somewhat forced to assume that teams will be relying heavily on freshmen across the board. With that being the case, State's trio of freshmen plus an experienced steadying force in the middle make for as good a nucleus of any team in the league, regardless of age.

I'll see them first-hand tonight and give you my impressions.