There are, by count, 128 permutations involving the remaining games of the ACC's four Atlantic Division contenders.
Those scenarios stem from seven remaining games:
Clemson-Florida State (Nov. 13)
Wake Forest-N.C. State (Nov. 13)
Maryland-Virginia (Nov. 13)
Florida State-Maryland (Nov. 20)
Wake Forest-Clemson (Nov. 20)
N.C. State-North Carolina (Nov. 20)
N.C. State-Maryland (Nov. 27)
But rather than slicing those scenarios up just yet (or until I get bored on my flight tomorrow), how about the simplest way for each team to win the division?
N.C. STATE (3-2)
* Win out. The Wolfpack hold the head-to-head advantage on Florida State, and would beat Maryland in the process of getting to 6-2.
MARYLAND (3-2)
* Win out. The Terrapins get to play the other two two-loss teams in the division, which would leave them atop the Atlantic alone if they win the next three. Heck, couple two home victories with a Clemson loss and Maryland still wins the Atlantic.
FLORIDA STATE (4-2)
* Win out AND get one loss from N.C. State. The Seminoles would take care of the Maryland factor with wins the next two weeks, but they still need some help.
CLEMSON (3-3)
* Win out AND get one loss from N.C. State AND one loss from Maryland. One of those losses is assured, since Maryland and N.C. State play on the final weekend. Getting the other one will be more of a challenge.
BOSTON COLLEGE (2-4)
* None, but I did want to include the scenario that's apropos for the division --- a five-way tie at 4-4.
Boston College would need to beat Duke and Virginia.
Florida State would need to lose to Clemson and Maryland to fall to 4-4.
Maryland would then need to lose to Virginia and N.C. State to get no further than 4-4.
N.C. State would then need to lose to Wake Forest and North Carolina.
And Clemson would have to lose to Wake Forest.
Under that set of results, N.C. State and Clemson would each be 3-1 against that five-team scrum, with Maryland 2-2 and Florida State and Boston College both 1-3. Based on head-to-head, Clemson would trump N.C. State.
Odds this happens? Highly, highly minimal. But it's worth mentioning to point out how crazy things could get in the most ridiculous scenario fathomable.
I did some slicing already in both divisions. No surprise that Virginia Tech is the overwhelming favorite in the Coastal, but Georgia Tech can advance to the ACC Championship in three out of 128 scenarios.
Posted by: DanGr | 11/07/2010 at 12:12 AM
Being heuristic here, Lex Parsimoniae...Occam's Razor ... leads us to the conclusion that if our Terps win out, we win the Division. Thus, a crowded evening at Byrd when FSU visits!
BTW: trivia here: Did you know that one of the most popular episodes of "House" was called Occam's Razor?
Posted by: Joe in upstate NY | 11/07/2010 at 08:34 AM