Picks at the wire: ACC title game

The final week of regular season picks was something of a split decision; the three conference games lined up according to plan, while the nonconference games were a little dicier.

Miami didn't hold up its end of the deal, Clemson flopped when I tried to Costanza the Tigers' game against South Carolina and Wake Forest routed Vanderbilt in what looked like an unguessable toss-up.

Oh well.

Just one game this week, of course, and that's the ACC title game. Let's get to it:

* Florida State vs. Virginia Tech (7:45, ESPN): Hokies 20-17. Well, what do you know? The game at least a plurality of the media expected to see way back in July. The best part? It isn't a regular-season rematch, which really wouldn't have been as much fun.

One one side there's the resurgent Seminoles, who made a three-game regular-season leap in Jimbo Fisher's first year, won the Atlantic Division for the first time since 2005 and toppled Florida for the first time since 2003.

So that's a pretty good year.

Meanwhile, the Hokies rattled off 10 wins (as usual), collected the Coastal Division for the fourth time in six years and boast the conference player of the year in Tyrod Taylor. A win Saturday would make the scoreboard of conference titles since Frank Beamer's boys entered the ACC read "Virginia Tech 4, Field 3."

And that's probably what's going to happen. Florida State is better than the motley teams of the Coastal Division: Inconsistent Miami, Wiped-Out North Carolina and Defense-Deficient Georgia Tech. It's probably about the same as N.C. State, and the Wolfpack wasted a 17-point on their home field before losing the Hokies.

If this game proceeds as many Virginia Tech affairs do, the Seminoles will stake themselves to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead, then watch as the Hokie defense collects turnover after turnover. The offense will turn one into a touchdown, more into field goals or field position. The Hokies, with plenty of rushing options, a defense that predictably grew into a decent outfit before season's end (third in the conference scoring defense, second in pass defense) and a superb kicker in Chris Hazley, will be ready to exploit Florida State's missteps.

And they'll come. Ever-predictable Virginia Tech follows one of two formulas: Either annihilate an overmatched opponent (Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest) or use turnovers or one or two timely plays to get the better of someone decent (Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State).

The Hokies aren't vastly better than Florida State, but there's at least some difference that still exists. Maybe it's just a field goal, but that seems like a solid guess of a spread come Saturday night in Charlotte.

Week 13: 6-3 (3-0 ACC)
Season record: 71-25 (36-12 ACC)
Preseason picks record: 67-29 (32-16 ACC)

Comments

[TomahawkNation]

Tech had better win this year.

[D1scourse]

Tomahawk ---

I do tend to agree with that. Assuming Manuel is capable of steering the ship and the Seminoles are stable on the offensive line, I have to think theyre the conference favorites in 2011.

[polaris]

I do not agree with your comparison of FSU and NCSU. I think the difference between the two is that FSU (despite the losses) I believe is increasing momentum. The unseen wrinkle however in that momentum is discipline/experience. I see NCSU floundering. One more point, I believe the Atlantic division was stronger this year than the Coastal. I think its too tough to call though -- VT has to stop playing mind games with themselves. If I had to pick someone to win though, it would be the Noles -- because this season for them has been about irony. Hokies season has been fairly predictable -- which usually starts with a strongly start, strong middle to end -- with a less than stellar finish in the post season.

[polaris]

er -- meant to say " usually starts with a struggle, strong middle to end --"