Five facets of Maryland's trip to No. 1 Duke to keep an eye on tonight (8 p.m., Fox Sports Net) ...
1. Starting 'em up
Maryland used the same starting lineup for all but three games last season. The Terps have used three different lineups over the last four games, and coach Gary Williams predictably didn't entirely tip his hand on whether Terrell Stoglin, Pe'Shon Howard or Cliff Tucker will start against the Blue Devils.
Nonetheless, Stoglin had 12 points in his first career start Tuesday against Colgate, and there's a common-sense element that suggests Cameron Indoor Stadium is not the place to work out those sorts of nerves. Maryland needs a scoring punch, and no one is more efficient at providing that from the perimeter than the freshman from Arizona.
Prediction: Maryland will start Stoglin along with the four guys who have received the nod for each game this season.
2. Doubling the fun
Maryland forward Jordan Williams continues to crank out double-doubles; he has eight in a row and 12 in 14 games this season. Duke, meanwhile, has yielded only one double-double this season --- the 11-point, 15-rebound outing UAB's Cameron Moore produced on Wednesday.
Williams is the variable that makes this matchup curious, and at least a bit dangerous for the Blue Devils. The sophomore is a known quantity who already ranks among the nation's most consistent big men. Maryland at least has a chance to hold the edge in the paint --- a priority against the Blue Devils.
Prediction: Williams does his usual thing and winds up with 17 points and 11 rebounds despite Duke's best attempts to get him into foul trouble.
3. Mr. Smith continues his player of the year push
The idea of peaking too early always seems kind of silly; it's never terrible to play great at any extended stretch. And "great" probably doesn't accurately convey how superbly Smith is playing. The senior is averaging 26.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists over his last five games.
That's not ACC player of the year stuff. That's national player of the year stuff. And, as Gary Williams observed, Smith has demonstrated opponents have little choice but to help on him at the risk of leaving the likes of Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry open on the perimeter. It's a dangerous game of pick-your-poison, and Maryland is the latest forced to play it.
Prediction: Maryland does an admirable job of keeping Smith somewhere around 20 points, but those kickouts to Dawkins, Curry and others prove to be the Terps' undoing.
4. Deep thoughts
So, what exactly is Maryland's rotation? Does it include James Padgett? Or Berend Weijs? Or Haukur Palsson?
Logically, the answer to all three is yes. Padgett and Weijs have played in every game, Palsson in all but one. They are, in some order or another, the eighth, ninth and 10th players in the rotation based on minutes played. Of course, a 10-man rotation is anything but the norm for Maryland (or most teams, really).
Weijs could be well-suited for this game; his ability to run the floor will help immensely, even against the thicker Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly. Palsson, at 6-foot-6, could have some matchup issues depending on how big Duke opts to play. In any case, it will be curious to see how the Terps figure out their rotation.
Prediction: All three guys play, with Padgett just beating Weijs in as the first frontcourt sub.
5. Duke stays unbeaten
Mike Krzyzewski has lost twice at Cameron with a top-ranked team --- and won 76 times. That's a ridiculous figure on a number of levels, and even though those games don't matter, Duke's abundance of talent does.
Maryland's recent trips to Cameron have not gone particularly well, and the Terps yet again get Duke on the road before facing the Blue Devils at home. That's not a terrible situation; better for Maryland to face Duke while students are on campus. But the Terps tend to take a little time to fully come together, and they'll be far better suited to handle the Blue Devils on Feb. 2 than tonight.
Prediction: This won't be the 41-point debacle it was two years ago, but something similar to last year's margin of 21 isn't completely unreasonable. Maryland should play well in bursts and even keep it close for a while. But this could be the sort of night Duke gets the margin to about a dozen, keeps it there for much of the second half and then sucks the life out of an opponent in the final five or six minutes. It's not an uncommon occurrence, and will probably happen many more times over the years. Maryland is a threat to knock off Duke this year, but it's much more likely to occur next month in front of the Terps' crowd.
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