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D1scourse Half-Dozen: Quarterbacks who could win the Heisman

Time for a little early-season Heismania.

The truth is, if someone is going to win the Heisman, they're probably going to be on a top-10 team at the end of the regular season.

A quick look, then, at how this has played out since 1980 (and as a pre-emptive move to hopefully avoid the usual bickering, Reggie Bush was voted the Heisman winner at the time; regardless of what's happened since, that event did occur in December 2005):

AP RANKING OF TEAMS WITH HEISMAN WINNER AT REGULAR SEASON'S END, 1980-2009

No. 1 (10): 1982 Georgia (Herschel Walker), 1983 Nebraska (Mike Rozier), 1986 Miami (Vinny Testaverde), 1992 Miami (Gino Torretta), 1993 Florida State (Charlie Ward), 1997 Michigan (Charles Woodson), 2004 Southern California (Matt Leinart), 2005 Southern California (Reggie Bush), 2006 Ohio State (Troy Smith), 2009 Alabama (Mark Ingram)

No. 2 (1): 2008 Oklahoma (Sam Bradford)

No. 3 (1): 2000 Florida State (Chris Weinke), 2003 Oklahoma (Jason White)

No. 4 (6): 1991 Michigan (Desmond Howard), 1994 Colorado (Rashaan Salaam), 1995 Ohio State (Eddie George), 1996 Florida (Danny Wuerffel), 1999 Wisconsin (Ron Dayne), 2001 Nebraska (Eric Crouch)

No. 5 (1): 2002 Southern California (Carson Palmer)

No. 8 (2): 1981 Southern California (Marcus Allen), 1984 Boston College (Doug Flutie)

No. 9 (1): 2007 Florida (Tim Tebow)

No. 12 (2): 1987 Notre Dame (Tim Brown), 1988 Oklahoma State (Barry Sanders)

No. 13 (2): 1989 Houston (Andre Ware), 1990 (Ty Detmer)

No. 16 (1): 1985 Auburn (Bo Jackson)

No. 18 (1): 1980 South Carolina (George Rogers)

No. 20 (1): 1998 Texas (Ricky Williams)

You'll note that 18 of the last 19 Heisman winners came from teams that wrapped up the regular season in the top 10. Moreover, the last QB before Ware and Detmer to win the Heisman from a team outside the top 10 was Stanford's Jim Plunkett back in 1970.

Unsurprisingly, those numbers distinctly color this look at possible Heisman candidates. This should not be considered a ranking of the best at the position, but rather a look at who has the best potential combination of skills, stats and team success over the course of the season to haul home college football's most hallowed hardware.

1. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State. Everybody knows who Pryor is, and he plays on a team with as good a shot as anyone of making it to the national title game. Hey, look! Five of the last six Heisman winners played in the national title game. If the Buckeyes go 11-1 or better, Pryor will probably receive an invitation to New York --- at minimum.

2. Kellen Moore, Boise State. It all hinges on Labor Day for the gunslinger behind the BCS-busting Broncos. If Moore can play well and take down Virginia Tech, he'll very much be a factor in the Heisman race. Thanks to a relatively soft WAC schedule, his numbers will be excellent and Boise will probably remain in the top five, barring a shocking stumble or a successful Oregon State upset bid. That's a recipe for Heisman relevance.

3. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas. Good news: He's in the SEC, so his name recognition will be high. Bad news: The Razorbacks aren't as good as Alabama. And even if they are on one late September day, they still have to play Georgia, Auburn and Louisiana State at some point. Team success could be the greatest hindrance in Mallett's candidacy.

4. Jacory Harris, Miami. The ACC's most viable Heisman candidate resides in Florida, but he's not the guy with the massive campaign behind him. Harris' Hurricanes will be lucky to make it through the first five games with less than two losses, but that set of opponents --- Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Clemson --- ensures Harris will be a known quantity very early. Should Miami be as good as some (including the Official Dot-Com Diva) believe, Harris will get a ton of credit for it because of the Hurricanes' cast-of-thousands approach to the rest of their skill positions on offense.

5. Ricky Dobbs, Navy. If there's a quarterback who could stay in the discussion without being in the top 10, it's Dobbs. He's already finding grass-roots support, and the service academy angle will at least cause people to consider him. Oh, and he's pretty good, too, and wrapped up his junior year with a surgical dissection of Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Navy probably needs to go 10-2 at minimum and Dobbs might need to come close to his 27 rushing touchdowns from a year ago for this to be even remotely possible. Given Dobbs' abilities and Navy perhaps reaching a talent peak this year, don't count it out.

6. Andrew Luck, Stanford. An efficient quarterback who returns with a nearly intact offensive line in a conference that seems up for grabs after tumultuous offseasons for the two league favorites? That's not a bad Heisman possibility, actually. Sure, Toby Gerhart is gone, but the Cardinal is still in decent shape to make a rare Pac-10 title push. Luck, who threw only four interceptions in 288 attempts last year, will be the guy who makes the offense go this year.

Six more also considered: Matt Barkley, Southern California; Blaine Gabbert, Missouri; Case Keenum, Houston; Jake Locker, Washington; Joshua Nesbitt, Georgia Tech; Christian Ponder, Florida State

Coming tomorrow: A half-dozen running backs who could win the Heisman

College football countdown: Nos. 16-20

Down to the top 20 on the countdown. Time to unveil many of everyone else's chic picks that just aren't entirely trustworthy for a full season.

No. 20 ARKANSAS

Everyone seems to love the Hogs, and to some extent it is understandable. Quarterback Ryan Mallett (30 touchdowns, seven interceptions) has a bit to do with that, but he also returns much of his help.

So let's agree for a moment the Razorbacks are going to be fun to watch on offense. Heck, with Tim Tebow off to the NFL, Arkansas might even possess the most explosive team in the SEC.

But two very troublesome, very unavoidable things stand out.

First, the Razorbacks aren't going to replicate their gaudy +15 turnover margin. They just aren't. It might be on the positive side, but it won't be that favorable over the course of another season unless the Hogs are really lucky. And the regression to the mean will not only nullify some of Arkansas' improvement, but also create greater issues for a defense that yielded more than 400 yards a game last season (easily the worst in the SEC).

Second, the early gauntlet remains, even if it isn't quite so scary. Florida rotates off the schedule and Mississippi isn't quite so strong, but playing Georgia (road), Alabama (home), Texas A&M (in Jerry Land) and Auburn (road) in succession in the first half of the season could easily send the Razorbacks tumbling from the top 25.

So, yes, Arkansas will be better. It just might not be enough to do much better than 8-4 or 9-3.

No. 19 AUBURN

A lot sets up swimmingly for the Tigers, who may not really be better than Arkansas or Louisiana State but certainly don't face as difficult a road to 10 wins as their SEC West brethren.

First of all, both of those teams have to visit the Plains. And so do Arkansas State, Clemson, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga.

That's right, Auburn is sticking to its recent game plan of staying at home as much as possible. Since 2004, the Tigers have played just one nonconference road game (a 34-17 loss at West Virginia in 2008).

Heck, even Alabama played Clemson in Atlanta two years ago (and is visiting Duke this year).

In any case, the Tigers are good enough on offense and talented enough (if not effective enough) on defense to have a prayer at getting to 11-0. There are SEC trips to Mississippi State, Kentucky and Mississippi --- hardly automatic wins, but better than trips to the Swamp and Death Valley --- and a lot of home cooking before an Iron Bowl trip to Tuscaloosa.

This isn't a prediction Auburn cracks the top 10 and has a chance to win the SEC entering Thanksgiving weekend; a defense that gave up 30 points on seven occasions last year would make that borderline nuts. But there would be more surprising outcomes this season than a stealthy BCS push by the Tigers.

No. 18 MIAMI

Here's the moment of truth: Does anyone really trust Miami to become a consistent team?

This isn't the sort of question along the lines of "Does anyone think the Hurricanes won't get shut out by Virginia?" Miami's moved past that sort of problem, and it absolutely must be viewed as a top-20 team going forward.

This is a bunch that beat Oklahoma hammered Georgia Tech and pulled out a stirring opening week defeat of Florida State. It also flopped at Virginia Tech and North Carolina and nearly got stung at Wake Forest.

Jacory Harris can be one of the nation's top quarterbacks. He can also be a complete wreck, depending on the day. Those 17 interceptions don't just throw themselves.

The defense is good. Not vintage The U good, but that's an absurd standard. It should still be better this fall than it was a year ago.

And so it's time to return to the original point. Can Miami be trusted to be a top-10 team all the time? The guess here is not quite yet. There will be nights when the Hurricanes look invincible, and there are a couple national title contenders (Ohio State, Virginia Tech) that had better hope it doesn't come at their expense.

But that wasn't an every-week occurrence for Miami last fall. Until proven otherwise, it's best not to count on it being the case now, either.

No. 17 NORTH CAROLINA

The Tar Heels will be fine on defense, what with a unit stocked with future pros and solid enough special teams.

But the offense ... oh dear.

Yes, 10 starters are back, but they're part of a unit that ranked in the bottom 10 percent nationally in total yardage and the ACC's third-worst passing attack (behind Georgia Tech's option-scheme and whatever snarky moniker you wish to provide to Virginia's attempt to throw the ball last year).

In particular, there's the question of whether T.J. Yates is a good enough quarterback to lead a team to a championship. It's a great curiosity, and it has to be one of the top questions on the minds of Tar Heels fans --- beyond, of course, (a) Is Harrison Barnes a hardwood deity; (b) Did John Henson add any muscle this offseason; and (c) What nuggets of wisdom did Roy Williams get from his massage therapist lately?

OK, enough with poking fun at Carolina as a hoops school. Its football --- a sleeping giant since Mack Brown departed for Texas --- should be good this fall. But what exactly does it take at quarterback to win the ACC.

Let's cue up the last 10 years:

QUARTERBACKS ON ACC CHAMPS, 2000-09

Year	QB	C-A (Pct.)	Yards	TD	INT
2000	Chris Weinke	266-431 (61.7)	4167	33	11
2001	Shaun Hill	197-329 (59.9)	2380	13	9
2002	Chris Rix	118-225 (52.4)	1684	13	7
2003	Chris Rix	216-382 (56.5)	3107	23	13
2004	Bryan Randall	170-306 (55.6)	2264	21	9
2005	Drew Weatherford	276-469 (58.8)	3208	18	18
2006	Riley Skinner	171-260 (65.8)	2051	9	5
2007	Sean Glennon	143-235 (60.9)	1796	12	5
2008	Tyrod Taylor	99-173 (57.2)	1036	2	7
2009	Josh Nesbitt	75-162 (46.3)	1701	10	5

It's funny. Yates' completion percentage from a season ago would rank fourth on that list. His yardage trumps half of those guys. His touchdown total was more than the last four title winning QBs. And his interception total ... well, that's better left untouched.

(It's also crucial to mention Taylor had 738 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in '08, while Nesbitt had 1,037 yards and 18 TDs on the ground last year).

The overall point here is Yates isn't a massive outlier among guys who have hauled home a conference title of late, which might surprise Carolina fans.

Sure, he probably won't be an NFL star (who on that list above was) and he still needs to get better --- cutting down on those 15 interceptions would be a nice start. But Carolina's offensive problems can't all be pinned on him, and the Tar Heels need to improve everywhere as a unit and not just under center. If that happens, Butch Davis' team might not just be a trendy pick. It could be an accurate one.

No. 16 GEORGIA TECH

With Paul Johnson running the offense and former Virginia coach Al Groh handling the defense, the Yellow Jackets are virtually certain to lead the league in hubris. Both are extremely intelligent guys when it comes to their profession, both can maximize the production of their units among the best in their business and they're both keenly aware of their knowledge and abilities.

There's also a better chance than most realize that the Yellow Jackets lead the league in wins, too.

Georgia Tech is the rare situation where turnover in offensive linemen is actually a good thing. Johnson is slowly but surely working his preferred sort of blocker --- quick and agile over slow and plodding --- into the mix. And don't worry much about Jonathan Dwyer's departure; the Yellow Jackets will simply plug-n-play Anthony Allen, who averaged 9.7 yards a carry a season ago.

There are some questions on defense, but Groh can usually coach up players as well as anyone. One telling thing about Virginia teams of the last decade --- even the bad ones in recent years --- is they never quit on Groh. That said, he'll probably be pretty happy to coach the defense of a team that held the ball for 33:49 a game last season. Coordinating the defense is a bit easier when the offense keeps you off the field.

Ultimately, it will be Josh Nesbitt (and his ability to stay on the field) that determines whether this projection is too optimistic. While running backs are particularly disposable in Johnson's system, effective quarterbacks are not.

The Yellow Jackets' season will hinge on a stretch featuring consecutive trips to Clemson and Virginia Tech, followed by a home date with Miami. If Nesbitt makes it to that point unscathed, Georgia Tech will have a chance to return to the Orange Bowl this year.