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Today's biggest loser: Boise State

In the immediate picture, today's biggest loser wasn't Georgia Tech or Minnesota or Virginia Tech.

Sure, the Yellow Jackets became the latest ACC team to endure an early loss.

And Tim Brewster's countdown clock as head coach of the Golden Gophers is officially on.

And Virginia Tech fans ... well, those are some awfully disappointed campers right now. As well they should be.

But the real loser is Boise State, which was counting on that Virginia Tech victory on Monday to hold up as a reason the Broncos should remain in the top five --- and perhaps even make the national title game --- if they run the table.

Those dreams lasted less than five days.

Boise could still go undefeated, and chances are it will.

But it's best win is severely tarnished, and considering no ACC team has produced a perfect conference record in a decade, chances are the Hokies will be a three- or four-loss team (at minimum) come the end of the season.

The Broncos had a great argument. Through no fault of their own, that argument lost a lot of weight today. And to enough people, that will be enough to be cautious about where a perfect Boise State team will be ranked in the end-game.

From a national standpoint, no one will be hurt more by today's results than the titans of the Smurf Turf. Given how lousy an afternoon it already is for the ACC, that's a remarkable development indeed.

D1scourse Half-Dozen: Quarterbacks who could win the Heisman

Time for a little early-season Heismania.

The truth is, if someone is going to win the Heisman, they're probably going to be on a top-10 team at the end of the regular season.

A quick look, then, at how this has played out since 1980 (and as a pre-emptive move to hopefully avoid the usual bickering, Reggie Bush was voted the Heisman winner at the time; regardless of what's happened since, that event did occur in December 2005):

AP RANKING OF TEAMS WITH HEISMAN WINNER AT REGULAR SEASON'S END, 1980-2009

No. 1 (10): 1982 Georgia (Herschel Walker), 1983 Nebraska (Mike Rozier), 1986 Miami (Vinny Testaverde), 1992 Miami (Gino Torretta), 1993 Florida State (Charlie Ward), 1997 Michigan (Charles Woodson), 2004 Southern California (Matt Leinart), 2005 Southern California (Reggie Bush), 2006 Ohio State (Troy Smith), 2009 Alabama (Mark Ingram)

No. 2 (1): 2008 Oklahoma (Sam Bradford)

No. 3 (1): 2000 Florida State (Chris Weinke), 2003 Oklahoma (Jason White)

No. 4 (6): 1991 Michigan (Desmond Howard), 1994 Colorado (Rashaan Salaam), 1995 Ohio State (Eddie George), 1996 Florida (Danny Wuerffel), 1999 Wisconsin (Ron Dayne), 2001 Nebraska (Eric Crouch)

No. 5 (1): 2002 Southern California (Carson Palmer)

No. 8 (2): 1981 Southern California (Marcus Allen), 1984 Boston College (Doug Flutie)

No. 9 (1): 2007 Florida (Tim Tebow)

No. 12 (2): 1987 Notre Dame (Tim Brown), 1988 Oklahoma State (Barry Sanders)

No. 13 (2): 1989 Houston (Andre Ware), 1990 (Ty Detmer)

No. 16 (1): 1985 Auburn (Bo Jackson)

No. 18 (1): 1980 South Carolina (George Rogers)

No. 20 (1): 1998 Texas (Ricky Williams)

You'll note that 18 of the last 19 Heisman winners came from teams that wrapped up the regular season in the top 10. Moreover, the last QB before Ware and Detmer to win the Heisman from a team outside the top 10 was Stanford's Jim Plunkett back in 1970.

Unsurprisingly, those numbers distinctly color this look at possible Heisman candidates. This should not be considered a ranking of the best at the position, but rather a look at who has the best potential combination of skills, stats and team success over the course of the season to haul home college football's most hallowed hardware.

1. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State. Everybody knows who Pryor is, and he plays on a team with as good a shot as anyone of making it to the national title game. Hey, look! Five of the last six Heisman winners played in the national title game. If the Buckeyes go 11-1 or better, Pryor will probably receive an invitation to New York --- at minimum.

2. Kellen Moore, Boise State. It all hinges on Labor Day for the gunslinger behind the BCS-busting Broncos. If Moore can play well and take down Virginia Tech, he'll very much be a factor in the Heisman race. Thanks to a relatively soft WAC schedule, his numbers will be excellent and Boise will probably remain in the top five, barring a shocking stumble or a successful Oregon State upset bid. That's a recipe for Heisman relevance.

3. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas. Good news: He's in the SEC, so his name recognition will be high. Bad news: The Razorbacks aren't as good as Alabama. And even if they are on one late September day, they still have to play Georgia, Auburn and Louisiana State at some point. Team success could be the greatest hindrance in Mallett's candidacy.

4. Jacory Harris, Miami. The ACC's most viable Heisman candidate resides in Florida, but he's not the guy with the massive campaign behind him. Harris' Hurricanes will be lucky to make it through the first five games with less than two losses, but that set of opponents --- Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Clemson --- ensures Harris will be a known quantity very early. Should Miami be as good as some (including the Official Dot-Com Diva) believe, Harris will get a ton of credit for it because of the Hurricanes' cast-of-thousands approach to the rest of their skill positions on offense.

5. Ricky Dobbs, Navy. If there's a quarterback who could stay in the discussion without being in the top 10, it's Dobbs. He's already finding grass-roots support, and the service academy angle will at least cause people to consider him. Oh, and he's pretty good, too, and wrapped up his junior year with a surgical dissection of Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Navy probably needs to go 10-2 at minimum and Dobbs might need to come close to his 27 rushing touchdowns from a year ago for this to be even remotely possible. Given Dobbs' abilities and Navy perhaps reaching a talent peak this year, don't count it out.

6. Andrew Luck, Stanford. An efficient quarterback who returns with a nearly intact offensive line in a conference that seems up for grabs after tumultuous offseasons for the two league favorites? That's not a bad Heisman possibility, actually. Sure, Toby Gerhart is gone, but the Cardinal is still in decent shape to make a rare Pac-10 title push. Luck, who threw only four interceptions in 288 attempts last year, will be the guy who makes the offense go this year.

Six more also considered: Matt Barkley, Southern California; Blaine Gabbert, Missouri; Case Keenum, Houston; Jake Locker, Washington; Joshua Nesbitt, Georgia Tech; Christian Ponder, Florida State

Coming tomorrow: A half-dozen running backs who could win the Heisman

College football countdown: Nos. 6-10

Looking for five teams with at least a chance at a national championship? You're looking at them. The preseason top five rolls out Monday. ...

No. 10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

Yes, the NCAA took the Trojans behind the woodshed, dishing out a two-year postseason ban and extensive scholarship losses in the coming seasons. Pete Carroll has flown away to a lucrative nest in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Cal went 8-5 a season ago. Lane Kiffin remains an untested commodity --- amazing for a guy who has at age 35 has already coached an NFL team and succeeded two college coaches who won national championships.

The defections have already begun, most notably with prized offensive line recruit Seantrel Henderson bolting for Miami. The prognosis for the Men of Troy from 2011 through 2013 is uninspiring at best and disastrous at worst.

Yet 2010 is still in play, and there's still plenty of Carroll-recruited talent dotting the roster. The Trojans' defense isn't what it was just a few years ago --- Oregon State, Oregon and Stanford did a nice job of obliterating that notion last season --- and Southern Cal can't simply expect to out-athlete the rest of the Pac-10 as it did for much of the Aughts. But Kiffin's first Trojans team could wind up being his best (who really expects him to stay through the entire rebuilding process?)

So much depends on whether the players give a damn about salvaging a bit of pride for a program so blatantly out of control that the NCAA actually hammered it rather than issuing an extended "tsk-tsk." The Trojans have no excuse not to win their first four, and they should be favored in a home date with Washington to open October.

At 5-0, the possibility of playing spoiler at the national level would have to seem might appetizing (even if a BCS title is out, the Trojans can still finish first in the AP poll). Yet there might not be a team more in danger of mentally checking out after a single defeat than Southern California.

Kiffin's unproven beyond his ability to talk a good game. If his first team back in L.A. stumbles even once, it will be a lot easier to gauge just how sharp he really is.

No. 9 TEXAS CHRISTIAN

If there's one thing to know about the great Horned Frogs, it's that they can cook up some amazing defenses in Fort Worth.

As in five of the top 13 defensive units since the turn of the century

TOP TOTAL DEFENSES, 2000-09

217.8: 2008 Texas Christian
219.5: 2006 Virginia Tech

221.4: 2004 N.C. State
221.8: 2008 Southern California

233.0: 2007 Ohio State
234.9: 2006 Texas Christian
236.2: 2001 Texas
237.9: 2001 Virginia Tech
239.7: 2009 Texas Christian

240.3: 2002 Texas Christian
242.8: 2006 Louisiana State
244.1: 2009 Alabama
245.0: 2000 Texas Christian
245.5: 2004 Alabama
247.6: 2005 Virginia Tech
249.0: 2002 Kansas State

251.9: 2009 Texas
252.0: 2003 Louisiana State
252.2: 2006 Rutgers
252.6: 2009 Florida

That 2008 TCU defense gave up 1.72 yards a carry, the best figure nationally in the last 10 years. Last year's outfit wasn't quite as dominant, but at 80.2 rushing yards yielded a game, it was still quite stingy.

It's a consistent performance, and Horned Frogs fans can bank on it repeating this season. Seven starters are back, including three on the defensive line (but not star defensive end Jerry Hughes, who had 11.5 sacks a year ago).

Oh, and TCU might have its best offense in Gary Patterson's 10-year tenure.

The trickiest games --- Oregon State (Sept. 4), Brigham Young (Oct. 16) and Utah (Nov. 6) --- are ideally spread out, and the Horned Frogs have opened with a defeat of a power conference school in five of the last six seasons. If TCU gets by Oregon State (a real possibility given the Beavers' chronic slow starts), it could be on its way to another 12-0 season and BCS berth.

No. 8 OKLAHOMA

Boy, do the Sooners probably wish they played more than six home games this season.

It's Oklahoma's turn to be the home team in the Red River Shootout Rivalry whatever you want to call it. It must return a 2008 visit from Cincinnati, albeit with Brian Kelly safely removed to South Bend. But it does get Florida State, Texas Tech and four others in Norman, and stands a pretty good chance of remaining at the top of this list:

LONGEST ACTIVE HOME-FIELD WINNING STREAKS (last loss in parentheses)

30: Oklahoma (2005 vs. Texas Christian)

26: Boise State (2005 vs. Boston College in MPC Computers Bowl)

17: Utah (2007 vs. Air Force)

15: Houston (2007 vs. East Carolina)
15: Texas (2007 vs. Kansas State)

14: Alabama (2007 vs. UL Monroe)
14: Texas Christian (2007 vs. Utah)

12: Cincinnati (2007 vs. West Virginia)

11: Florida (2008 vs. Mississippi)

10: Oregon (2008 vs. Boise State)
10: Troy (2007 vs. Florida Atlantic)

Six games elsewhere won't help, but it's also unlikely the Sooners will endure a pair of injuries as crucial to the season's outcome as the losses of Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham were.

Preview mag guru Phil Steele lists Oklahoma at No. 1. The numbers certainly look nice for the Sooners, but an offensive line that struggled to get traction a year ago remains a concern. This should be a better team than last season's 8-5 bunch and probably would be a disappointment if it doesn't wind up in the top 10 at season's end. Nonetheless, 2011 might be a better time frame for expecting a national championship.

No. 7 BOISE STATE

At long last, there's a non-power conference team with a chance to completely game the BCS system.

Utah went undefeated in 2004, but began the season ranked 20th. The Utes were No. 5 in the final regular season poll.

Boise State was unranked to begin the 2006 season, and made it to No. 9 heading into the Fiesta Bowl.

The next year, Hawaii opened at No. 23 and made it all the way to No. 10 after a dozen wins in a row.

Last season, Texas Christian leaped from No. 17 to No. 3, while Boise State charged from No. 14 to No. 6.

But this year, the Broncos will start in the top 10. Maybe even the top five. And given the inane and intellectually lazy habits of poll voters of all stripes, Boise State could vault into the national title game thanks to its head start in the rankings.

It could turn out to be a fantastic outcome, but the manner in which it could be clinched would be less than impressive. Teams rise up the rankings when they win and tumble when they lose. Once they go up, it's tough for them to come down (at least much, anyway) without a loss simply because that's not how most voters roll.

Boise State can solidify top-five standing with a defeat of Virginia Tech in the season's opening week. But after that, how many legitimate top-25 teams will the Broncos face? Maybe Oregon State on Sept. 25? In a bigger stretch, perhaps Nevada the day after Thanksgiving? So if the Broncos can get up for a huge game --- as they have in sweeping a home-and-home from Oregon the last two years --- the door to a national title game appearance doesn't just swing open, it basically falls off its hinges after slamming against the wall.

Why? Because Boise State won't get severely penalized by many --- arguably, a substantial majority --- of voters just because the totality of their schedule is middling. (And that's nothing new; in the last four years, the titans of the Smurf Turf have played six ranked opponents, including three in bowl games. The only other ranked opponent outside the Oregon series was Hawaii in 2007). If it can somehow get into the top two, Boise will be difficult to dislodge due in large part to voting inertia.

But that's the system, even if it is severely flawed. And if the Broncos can exploit it after getting the shaft several times in recent years, bully for them.

This is all rendered moot if they can't beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day. But with 20 starters returning, Boise at least has a realistic chance to to undermine some stale conventional wisdom, and that's always both good and entertaining.

No. 6 VIRGINIA TECH

It's a Bizarro Year in Blacksburg, where up is down, black and white, and defense and special teams are the apparent question marks.

But Virginia Tech fans might want to scrutinize something else: What would the trickle down be if Bud Foster's unit didn't perform especially well.

Hint: It is one giant unknown, especially where quarterback Tyrod Taylor is concerned.

That seems counterintuitive, since Taylor has started 28 games over the last three seasons. But consider that in those starts, he's faced a deficit of more than a possession just five times.

Sure, he led a comeback from down 17-3 against North Carolina in 2008 (going 5-for-8 for 53 yards in three scoring drives in the second half; the Hokie rally included a 30-yard touchdown drive preceded by a fumble recovery and a 45-yard field goal set up by a Tar Heel personal foul).

There were also four setups with a deficit of at least two possessions --- Boston College and Miami in 2008, Alabama and Georgia Tech last year --- that didn't work out so well.

Presumably, a weaker defense would mean Taylor might get that chance from time to time this season. And if it happens against one of the more imposing teams on Virginia Tech's schedule, such as Boise State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina or Miami?

Well, check out Taylor's work against ranked teams in his career (of the games in 2007, Taylor only started against Clemson):

2007	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Louisiana State	9-44	1	7-18	62	0/0	67.82
at Clemson	15-118	0	7-14	65	1/0	112.57
at Virginia	9-17	2	4-6	39	0/0	121.27
vs. Boston College	9-36	0	3-6	28	0/0	89.20
vs. Kansas	5-(-2)	0	1-3	11	0/1	-2.53
2008	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Florida State	1-(-6)	0	0-0	0	0/0	---
vs. Boston College	11-30	2	11-19	84	0/1	84.51
vs. Cincinnati	15-47	1	13-22	140	0/1	103.45
2009	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
vs. Alabama	10-(-26)	0	9-20	91	0/0	83.22
Nebraska	9-(-22)	0	12-27	192	1/0	116.40
Miami	10-75	0	4-9	98	1/0	172.58
at Georgia Tech	13-63	1	10-14	159	1/2	161.83
Total (12 G-8 GS)	116-374	7	81-158	969	4/5	104.81

It's not a gigantic sample size, and Taylor obviously played well against his last two ranked opponents a season ago. Nonetheless, he doesn't seem like a guy who will win games on his own --- or produce multiple significant comebacks in a season.

The Hokies certainly possess some options in the running game, between Taylor himself and Ryan Williams (as well as Darren Evans and his surgically reconstructed knee). It might not be smart, though, to discount the impact of rebuilding the left side of the offensive line.

This entire discussion is based on the idea the Hokies will struggle on defense. Yet that hasn't happened since 2003.

VIRGINIA TECH, CONFERENCE DEFENSIVE RANKS, 2004-09

Year	Total	Rush	Pass	Score
2004	2	4	2	1
2005	1	2	2	1
2006	1	3	1	1
2007	1	2	4	1
2008	2	2	5	1
2009	2	4	2	1

At some point, the defensive system warrants a bit of trust. Foster passed that point a while ago, cranking out elite units even as players come and go. And it's not like the Hokies just neglect defensive talent in their recruiting efforts.

On the surface, yes, things appear to be different. But absolutely no one should be surprised if this turns out to be a typical Virginia Tech defense complemented by perhaps the program's best offense since joining the ACC.

Taylor's probably a dicier option when a rally is needed than Hokies fans probably realize (or care to admit), but here's guessing such heroics won't be needed all that much this year. There's a loss lurking somewhere along the way, but Virginia Tech looks like it should win the conference for the third time in four years.