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College football countdown: Nos. 1-5

And now, the conclusion ...

No. 5 FLORIDA

The Gators lose their beloved quarterback (Tim Tebow), their top rusher (Tebow), four of their top five receivers as well as a good chunk of a dominant defense from the last two seasons.

And they're still expected to be a top-five team. A top-10 outfit at minimum.

That speaks volumes about the juggernaut Urban Meyer has built, regardless of whether it has or has not endangered his health in the long-term.

The last time the Gators brought back less than seven starters on either side of the ball (2007), they went 9-4 but still had a Heisman Trophy winner in Tebow. The Gators should be better this time around, and few players will receive as much scrutiny as quarterback John Brantley.

Brantley threw at a 75 percent clip in limited work last year, and owns 10 career touchdowns against a single interception. He won't be that good --- not even Tebow was --- but he should be solid enough to lead the Gators to their fourth 10-win season in five years.

What he might not be good enough to do: Maintain the Gators' winning streak in true road games. A visit to Tuscaloosa beckons on Oct. 2.

LONGEST ACTIVE WINNING STREAK, TRUE ROAD GAMES

12: Boise State

10: Florida

9: Cincinnati

8: Alabama

6: Texas
6: Texas Christian

No. 4 NEBRASKA

The Cornhuskers have a yahtzee of good things going for them this year.

1. Four offensive line starters return. That bodes well for an improved offense. Couple that with a decent stable of running backs, and Nebraska could manage to hide its instability at quarterback (Zac Lee? Cody Green?) reasonably well.

2. The nonconference schedule is manageable. After home-and homes with Southern California and Virginia Tech over the last four years (netting four losses), Nebraska's only truly dangerous non-league game is a trip to Washington on Sept. 18.

3. Much of the front six/seven on defense are back. Granted, that doesn't include Ndamukong Suh, but the Blackshirts should rank among the best units in the country again.

4. There's no frightful road trip. The Huskers don't play Oklahoma, and they get Texas and Missouri at home. There's virtually no reason to believe they won't the Big 12 North.

5. In a close game, Nebraska has an edge at kicker. Alex Henery was 22-for-23 inside of 50 yards last year and is 45-for-47 in that range for his career. That's ridiculous for an NFL kicker and off-the-charts amazing for a college specialist.

Yes, the passing game leaves much to be desired, and the Cornhuskers inevitably will have their hoped dashed by Texas (more on that momentarily). Yet even without Suh, this has a chance to be the best team in Lincoln since the 2001 outfit that lost to Miami in the national title game.

No. 3 TEXAS

Texas' spot as the feudal lord of the Big 12 was solidified last month (how's serfdom feel, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State?), but the reshaped league does come at a cost.

The Longhorns will no longer be able to find ways to defy defeat against Nebraska on a semi-regular basis.

TEXAS-NEBRASKA SERIES, 1996-2009

1996: Texas 37, Nebraska 27 (Big 12 title game)
1998: Texas 20, Nebraska 16 (ends Nebraska's home winning streak at 47)
1999: Texas 24, Nebraska 20 (lone loss in 12-1 season)
1999: Nebraska 22, Texas 6 (Big 12 title game)
2002: Texas 27, Nebraska 24 (Jammal Lord runs for 234 yards in a loss)
2003: Texas 31, Nebraska 7 (Cedric Benson and Vince Young both roll up 160+ yards rushing)
2006: Texas 22, Nebraska 20 (Ryan Bailey's FG --- in his first career attempt --- with 23 seconds left wins it)
2007: Texas 28, Nebraska 25 (Jamaal Charles runs for 290 yards and three scores)
2009: Texas 12, Nebraska 10 (Big 12 title game; Texas kicks last-second field goal)

That's a ridiculous level of agony to inflict upon one team. But that's what happens when you crank out top-five teams year after year.

As for on the field, yes, BFFs Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley (if all those prime-time Texas games the last couple years imparted anything, it was how quarterback and wideout were such good buddies) are now gone. There's also some holes to fill on the offensive line and on special teams.

But just remember: The Longhorns clean up in recruiting in Texas. Every. Single. Year. They've won at least 10 games in nine years running, and it would be shocking if somehow that streak didn't reach 10.

Texas is more than fine in the secondary, and Sam Acho will again anchor a more-than-capable pass rush. The Longhorns leave the state exactly twice --- to visit Nebraska after a bye and to pay at Kansas State in the lone road game in the second half of the schedule.

As usual, Texas will be in great shape for a run to the national title game if it can vault over Oklahoma. Given the history, there's little doubt the Longhorns will dispose of Nebraska --- both in the regular season and in a possible Big 12 title game tussle.

No. 2 ALABAMA

Perhaps there's a little bit too much emphasis placed on the value of bye weeks.

But nonetheless, it's hard not to feel just a twinge of sympathy for the defending national champs.

South Carolina has a bye before playing the Crimson Tide. So does Mississippi. And Tennessee. And Louisiana State. And Mississippi State. And Auburn.

Yep, each of Alabama's final six conference opponents --- all of them legitimate bowl contenders --- will have an extra week to prepare.

(In the spirit of full disclosure, Alabama has a bye before it plays Louisiana State, and it will face start-up program Georgia State nine days before the Iron Bowl).

The Crimson Tide --- no matter how talented they are --- will lose somewhere along the way. They might have the country's best running backs (returning a Heisman winner in Mark Ingram helps with that) and one of the most exciting wideouts (Julio Jones) anywhere. They might even have a plethora of talent to replace a defense that was wiped out by graduation and departures to the NFL.

But that scheduling quirk is going to cost Alabama. Whether it denies them a chance to win another national title remains to be seen.

By way, here's a look at how the Tide fared in the seasons after their previous seven national titles:

1962: 10-1, won Orange Bowl (lost Game No. 9 to Georgia Tech)
1965: 9-1-1, won Orange Bowl and national title (lost Game No. 1 to Georgia, tied Game No. 5 with Tennessee)
1966: 11-0, won Sugar Bowl (ranked No. 3 behind 9-0-1 Notre Dame and 9-0-1 Michigan State)
1974: 11-1, lost Orange Bowl (lost Game No. 12 to Notre Dame)
1979: 12-0, won Sugar Bowl and national title
1980: 10-2, won Cotton Bowl (lost Game No. 8 to Mississippi State and Game No. 10 to Notre Dame)
1993: 9-3-1, won Gator Bowl (tied Tennessee and lost to Louisiana State, Auburn and Florida)

No. 1 OHIO STATE

Time to qualify a pick that understandably will receive some scrutiny.

Are the Buckeyes the nation's best team? Probably not. Head-to-head, Alabama, Florida and Texas all have a pretty good chance to win by double digits.

But are the Buckeyes the best bet to be playing in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10? Absolutely.

They play eight home games, including the only scary nonconference test (Miami).

All the significant skill players on offense, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, are back for another run.

The defense, while unlikely to be so stout against the run, hasn't yielded more than 14 points a game since 2005. That should probably continue.

Two of their four road games are against Illinois and Minnesota. Granted, the Buckeyes must go to Iowa and Wisconsin, but no path to perfection is completely ideal.

Pryor made progress last year, and consistency in the next step. Ohio State looks like the most likely team (besides, perhaps, Boise State) to go 12-0 and wind up 60 minutes away from a national title. The Buckeyes might not haul home the hardware, but few programs are more obvious candidates to at least have a chance to play for it all on the last day of the season.

And, in case you're wondering (and you probably shouldn't, since Alabama is a likely preseason No. 1) ...

OHIO STATE, PERFORMANCE IN SEASONS WITH No. 1 RANKING IN FIRST POLL

1942: 9-1, No. 1 (first poll was Oct. 12)
1958: 6-1-2, No. 8
1962: 6-3, unranked
1969: 8-1, No. 4
1970: 9-1, No. 5
1980: 9-3, No. 15
1998: 11-1, No. 2
2006: 12-1, No. 2

Guess that's a murky enough history for Buckeyes fans to be happy settling for No. 2 or No. 3 when the preseason polls are released next month.

College football countdown: Nos. 6-10

Looking for five teams with at least a chance at a national championship? You're looking at them. The preseason top five rolls out Monday. ...

No. 10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

Yes, the NCAA took the Trojans behind the woodshed, dishing out a two-year postseason ban and extensive scholarship losses in the coming seasons. Pete Carroll has flown away to a lucrative nest in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Cal went 8-5 a season ago. Lane Kiffin remains an untested commodity --- amazing for a guy who has at age 35 has already coached an NFL team and succeeded two college coaches who won national championships.

The defections have already begun, most notably with prized offensive line recruit Seantrel Henderson bolting for Miami. The prognosis for the Men of Troy from 2011 through 2013 is uninspiring at best and disastrous at worst.

Yet 2010 is still in play, and there's still plenty of Carroll-recruited talent dotting the roster. The Trojans' defense isn't what it was just a few years ago --- Oregon State, Oregon and Stanford did a nice job of obliterating that notion last season --- and Southern Cal can't simply expect to out-athlete the rest of the Pac-10 as it did for much of the Aughts. But Kiffin's first Trojans team could wind up being his best (who really expects him to stay through the entire rebuilding process?)

So much depends on whether the players give a damn about salvaging a bit of pride for a program so blatantly out of control that the NCAA actually hammered it rather than issuing an extended "tsk-tsk." The Trojans have no excuse not to win their first four, and they should be favored in a home date with Washington to open October.

At 5-0, the possibility of playing spoiler at the national level would have to seem might appetizing (even if a BCS title is out, the Trojans can still finish first in the AP poll). Yet there might not be a team more in danger of mentally checking out after a single defeat than Southern California.

Kiffin's unproven beyond his ability to talk a good game. If his first team back in L.A. stumbles even once, it will be a lot easier to gauge just how sharp he really is.

No. 9 TEXAS CHRISTIAN

If there's one thing to know about the great Horned Frogs, it's that they can cook up some amazing defenses in Fort Worth.

As in five of the top 13 defensive units since the turn of the century

TOP TOTAL DEFENSES, 2000-09

217.8: 2008 Texas Christian
219.5: 2006 Virginia Tech

221.4: 2004 N.C. State
221.8: 2008 Southern California

233.0: 2007 Ohio State
234.9: 2006 Texas Christian
236.2: 2001 Texas
237.9: 2001 Virginia Tech
239.7: 2009 Texas Christian

240.3: 2002 Texas Christian
242.8: 2006 Louisiana State
244.1: 2009 Alabama
245.0: 2000 Texas Christian
245.5: 2004 Alabama
247.6: 2005 Virginia Tech
249.0: 2002 Kansas State

251.9: 2009 Texas
252.0: 2003 Louisiana State
252.2: 2006 Rutgers
252.6: 2009 Florida

That 2008 TCU defense gave up 1.72 yards a carry, the best figure nationally in the last 10 years. Last year's outfit wasn't quite as dominant, but at 80.2 rushing yards yielded a game, it was still quite stingy.

It's a consistent performance, and Horned Frogs fans can bank on it repeating this season. Seven starters are back, including three on the defensive line (but not star defensive end Jerry Hughes, who had 11.5 sacks a year ago).

Oh, and TCU might have its best offense in Gary Patterson's 10-year tenure.

The trickiest games --- Oregon State (Sept. 4), Brigham Young (Oct. 16) and Utah (Nov. 6) --- are ideally spread out, and the Horned Frogs have opened with a defeat of a power conference school in five of the last six seasons. If TCU gets by Oregon State (a real possibility given the Beavers' chronic slow starts), it could be on its way to another 12-0 season and BCS berth.

No. 8 OKLAHOMA

Boy, do the Sooners probably wish they played more than six home games this season.

It's Oklahoma's turn to be the home team in the Red River Shootout Rivalry whatever you want to call it. It must return a 2008 visit from Cincinnati, albeit with Brian Kelly safely removed to South Bend. But it does get Florida State, Texas Tech and four others in Norman, and stands a pretty good chance of remaining at the top of this list:

LONGEST ACTIVE HOME-FIELD WINNING STREAKS (last loss in parentheses)

30: Oklahoma (2005 vs. Texas Christian)

26: Boise State (2005 vs. Boston College in MPC Computers Bowl)

17: Utah (2007 vs. Air Force)

15: Houston (2007 vs. East Carolina)
15: Texas (2007 vs. Kansas State)

14: Alabama (2007 vs. UL Monroe)
14: Texas Christian (2007 vs. Utah)

12: Cincinnati (2007 vs. West Virginia)

11: Florida (2008 vs. Mississippi)

10: Oregon (2008 vs. Boise State)
10: Troy (2007 vs. Florida Atlantic)

Six games elsewhere won't help, but it's also unlikely the Sooners will endure a pair of injuries as crucial to the season's outcome as the losses of Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham were.

Preview mag guru Phil Steele lists Oklahoma at No. 1. The numbers certainly look nice for the Sooners, but an offensive line that struggled to get traction a year ago remains a concern. This should be a better team than last season's 8-5 bunch and probably would be a disappointment if it doesn't wind up in the top 10 at season's end. Nonetheless, 2011 might be a better time frame for expecting a national championship.

No. 7 BOISE STATE

At long last, there's a non-power conference team with a chance to completely game the BCS system.

Utah went undefeated in 2004, but began the season ranked 20th. The Utes were No. 5 in the final regular season poll.

Boise State was unranked to begin the 2006 season, and made it to No. 9 heading into the Fiesta Bowl.

The next year, Hawaii opened at No. 23 and made it all the way to No. 10 after a dozen wins in a row.

Last season, Texas Christian leaped from No. 17 to No. 3, while Boise State charged from No. 14 to No. 6.

But this year, the Broncos will start in the top 10. Maybe even the top five. And given the inane and intellectually lazy habits of poll voters of all stripes, Boise State could vault into the national title game thanks to its head start in the rankings.

It could turn out to be a fantastic outcome, but the manner in which it could be clinched would be less than impressive. Teams rise up the rankings when they win and tumble when they lose. Once they go up, it's tough for them to come down (at least much, anyway) without a loss simply because that's not how most voters roll.

Boise State can solidify top-five standing with a defeat of Virginia Tech in the season's opening week. But after that, how many legitimate top-25 teams will the Broncos face? Maybe Oregon State on Sept. 25? In a bigger stretch, perhaps Nevada the day after Thanksgiving? So if the Broncos can get up for a huge game --- as they have in sweeping a home-and-home from Oregon the last two years --- the door to a national title game appearance doesn't just swing open, it basically falls off its hinges after slamming against the wall.

Why? Because Boise State won't get severely penalized by many --- arguably, a substantial majority --- of voters just because the totality of their schedule is middling. (And that's nothing new; in the last four years, the titans of the Smurf Turf have played six ranked opponents, including three in bowl games. The only other ranked opponent outside the Oregon series was Hawaii in 2007). If it can somehow get into the top two, Boise will be difficult to dislodge due in large part to voting inertia.

But that's the system, even if it is severely flawed. And if the Broncos can exploit it after getting the shaft several times in recent years, bully for them.

This is all rendered moot if they can't beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day. But with 20 starters returning, Boise at least has a realistic chance to to undermine some stale conventional wisdom, and that's always both good and entertaining.

No. 6 VIRGINIA TECH

It's a Bizarro Year in Blacksburg, where up is down, black and white, and defense and special teams are the apparent question marks.

But Virginia Tech fans might want to scrutinize something else: What would the trickle down be if Bud Foster's unit didn't perform especially well.

Hint: It is one giant unknown, especially where quarterback Tyrod Taylor is concerned.

That seems counterintuitive, since Taylor has started 28 games over the last three seasons. But consider that in those starts, he's faced a deficit of more than a possession just five times.

Sure, he led a comeback from down 17-3 against North Carolina in 2008 (going 5-for-8 for 53 yards in three scoring drives in the second half; the Hokie rally included a 30-yard touchdown drive preceded by a fumble recovery and a 45-yard field goal set up by a Tar Heel personal foul).

There were also four setups with a deficit of at least two possessions --- Boston College and Miami in 2008, Alabama and Georgia Tech last year --- that didn't work out so well.

Presumably, a weaker defense would mean Taylor might get that chance from time to time this season. And if it happens against one of the more imposing teams on Virginia Tech's schedule, such as Boise State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina or Miami?

Well, check out Taylor's work against ranked teams in his career (of the games in 2007, Taylor only started against Clemson):

2007	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Louisiana State	9-44	1	7-18	62	0/0	67.82
at Clemson	15-118	0	7-14	65	1/0	112.57
at Virginia	9-17	2	4-6	39	0/0	121.27
vs. Boston College	9-36	0	3-6	28	0/0	89.20
vs. Kansas	5-(-2)	0	1-3	11	0/1	-2.53
2008	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
at Florida State	1-(-6)	0	0-0	0	0/0	---
vs. Boston College	11-30	2	11-19	84	0/1	84.51
vs. Cincinnati	15-47	1	13-22	140	0/1	103.45
2009	Rush-Yds	TD	Comp-Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
vs. Alabama	10-(-26)	0	9-20	91	0/0	83.22
Nebraska	9-(-22)	0	12-27	192	1/0	116.40
Miami	10-75	0	4-9	98	1/0	172.58
at Georgia Tech	13-63	1	10-14	159	1/2	161.83
Total (12 G-8 GS)	116-374	7	81-158	969	4/5	104.81

It's not a gigantic sample size, and Taylor obviously played well against his last two ranked opponents a season ago. Nonetheless, he doesn't seem like a guy who will win games on his own --- or produce multiple significant comebacks in a season.

The Hokies certainly possess some options in the running game, between Taylor himself and Ryan Williams (as well as Darren Evans and his surgically reconstructed knee). It might not be smart, though, to discount the impact of rebuilding the left side of the offensive line.

This entire discussion is based on the idea the Hokies will struggle on defense. Yet that hasn't happened since 2003.

VIRGINIA TECH, CONFERENCE DEFENSIVE RANKS, 2004-09

Year	Total	Rush	Pass	Score
2004	2	4	2	1
2005	1	2	2	1
2006	1	3	1	1
2007	1	2	4	1
2008	2	2	5	1
2009	2	4	2	1

At some point, the defensive system warrants a bit of trust. Foster passed that point a while ago, cranking out elite units even as players come and go. And it's not like the Hokies just neglect defensive talent in their recruiting efforts.

On the surface, yes, things appear to be different. But absolutely no one should be surprised if this turns out to be a typical Virginia Tech defense complemented by perhaps the program's best offense since joining the ACC.

Taylor's probably a dicier option when a rally is needed than Hokies fans probably realize (or care to admit), but here's guessing such heroics won't be needed all that much this year. There's a loss lurking somewhere along the way, but Virginia Tech looks like it should win the conference for the third time in four years.

College football countdown: Nos. 11-15

The countdown will take at least a day (if not two) off. There's no reason to unveil the entire top 10 during a weekend when no one is paying attention.

As for the teams just outside that range? Seems like a good thing to run down on a Friday morning ...

No. 15 OREGON STATE

The most mysterious thing about Oregon State is not its success, but rather why a lot of folks don't seem to expect it on a regular basis.

And so it is again this year, with most of the preview magazines slotting the Beavers between 25th and 30th when they invariably play as well as anyone after Oct. 1.

The same will hold true this season, at least after Oregon State is done dealing with both Texas Christian and Boise State before September is through.

That will be quarterback adjustment time, and the Beavers could get off to the usual tepid start. But down the road, both Southern California and Oregon come to Corvallis. And Jacquizz Rodgers will be his usual pinball self. And Oregon State's veteran defensive line will make it tough (as usual) for opponents to run.

Orchestrating it all is Mike Riley, who has done what once was unthinkable --- make the Pac-10 standings over a four-year stretch look like this:

PAC-10 CONFERENCE RECORDS, 2006-09

Southern Cal: 27-9
Oregon State: 25-11
Oregon: 24-12
California: 21-15
Arizona: 19-17

Arizona State: 17-19
UCLA: 16-20
Stanford: 14-22
Washington: 9-27
Washington State: 8-28

Consider that Riley's unheralded teams have won as many league games in that span as UCLA and Washington combined. That's just crazy.

Southern Cal, despite its probation, remains the most talented team. Oregon is a popular pick, even down its projected starting quarterback. But Oregon State will be in the mix at or near the end of the season. It usually is.

No. 14 OREGON

The Ducks took a huge step toward taking a step toward a national title the day they released their 2010 schedule.

That's because Boise State doesn't appear.

Take out a loss to the Broncos, and Oregon is likely in the top 15 heading into its 2008 showdown at Southern California. And last year, the Ducks rattled off seven straight wins after losing on the blue turf in the infamous season opener thanks to LeGarrette Blount's postgame antics.

Of course, it would have helped Oregon tremendously if Jeremiah Masoli could have behaved himself and not got himself suspended for the season and later thrown off the team.

The Ducks survived Blount's absence nicely, with freshman LaMichael James stepping in to run for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns (yet again demonstrating the ease with which most running backs can be replaced). Their ability to cope without Masoli --- a reality Oregon has known about for months --- will dictate whether they can secure their first top-five national finish since 2001.

That's the great unknown, and it means the Ducks should be viewed with some caution. But they'll still be plenty scary, and a legitimate threat to make it back to the Rose Bowl.

No. 13 IOWA

When any team wins four games by a combined eight points, it is worthy of some suspicion.

Such is the case with the Hawkeyes, who rode a superb defense and an unspectacular offense to the Orange Bowl --- and (as anyone who watched the broadcast could tell you) the coldest Orange Bowl ever, at that. 

The defense will remain excellent this season, with the line and the secondary both particularly strong. Whether Ricky Stanzi and the offense can improve remains to be seen.

But remember this. Iowa went to Penn State and Wisconsin and won last year, and nearly toppled Ohio State in the Horseshoe. All three Big Ten heavyweights (along with Michigan State) venture to Iowa City, leaving the Hawkeyes to visit Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota. Not exactly a perilous road.

Effectively, there's reasons to believe the Hawkeyes will again be a top-10 team (schedule, defense) and reasons to think they'll fade (luck evening out, offense). The smart play is to go somewhere in the middle and count on a comfortable trip to Florida for New Year's Day.

No. 12 GEORGIA

Five certainties about the Bulldogs' looming season.

1. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham will be more popular than his predecessor. That's a bar so low you can step over it.

2. The Bulldogs will have a better turnover margin than -15. Because it's pretty difficult to be that bad once, let alone twice.

3. Georgia will break in a new quarterback while relying on established running backs and the nation's most experienced offensive line (per Phil Steele).

4. The instant the Bulldogs lose a game, moaning about Mark Richt (he of a 90-27 career record) will escalate considerably. It won't matter if that loss comes in the season's second week or in the BCS title game.

5. The lock of the year: No fan at Sanford Stadium will ever witness another anti-drunk driving PSA featuring deposed athletic director Damon Evans.

No. 11 WISCONSIN

Somewhere in the great beyond, Woody Hayes nods approvingly at the Badgers.

Consider:

MOST CONSECUTIVE SEASONS, 200+ YARDS/GAME RUSHING

28: Air Force

8: Navy

3: Florida
3: Nevada
3: Oregon
3: Wisconsin

2: Army
2: Texas Christian

The Badgers aren't exactly a relic of a bygone era, but they might be the least fancy elite team in the country. They'll ride their rushing game --- between tailback John Clay and his humongous line --- as far as possible, just like they usually do.

Wisconsin should breeze through its out-of-league schedule (though it does seem like a magnet for nonconference scares), draws Ohio State at home and doesn't have to deal with Penn State. It's difficult to foresee a perfect season, but a trip to the Rose Bowl isn't out of the question for Bucky Badger.

College football countdown: Nos. 16-20

Down to the top 20 on the countdown. Time to unveil many of everyone else's chic picks that just aren't entirely trustworthy for a full season.

No. 20 ARKANSAS

Everyone seems to love the Hogs, and to some extent it is understandable. Quarterback Ryan Mallett (30 touchdowns, seven interceptions) has a bit to do with that, but he also returns much of his help.

So let's agree for a moment the Razorbacks are going to be fun to watch on offense. Heck, with Tim Tebow off to the NFL, Arkansas might even possess the most explosive team in the SEC.

But two very troublesome, very unavoidable things stand out.

First, the Razorbacks aren't going to replicate their gaudy +15 turnover margin. They just aren't. It might be on the positive side, but it won't be that favorable over the course of another season unless the Hogs are really lucky. And the regression to the mean will not only nullify some of Arkansas' improvement, but also create greater issues for a defense that yielded more than 400 yards a game last season (easily the worst in the SEC).

Second, the early gauntlet remains, even if it isn't quite so scary. Florida rotates off the schedule and Mississippi isn't quite so strong, but playing Georgia (road), Alabama (home), Texas A&M (in Jerry Land) and Auburn (road) in succession in the first half of the season could easily send the Razorbacks tumbling from the top 25.

So, yes, Arkansas will be better. It just might not be enough to do much better than 8-4 or 9-3.

No. 19 AUBURN

A lot sets up swimmingly for the Tigers, who may not really be better than Arkansas or Louisiana State but certainly don't face as difficult a road to 10 wins as their SEC West brethren.

First of all, both of those teams have to visit the Plains. And so do Arkansas State, Clemson, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga.

That's right, Auburn is sticking to its recent game plan of staying at home as much as possible. Since 2004, the Tigers have played just one nonconference road game (a 34-17 loss at West Virginia in 2008).

Heck, even Alabama played Clemson in Atlanta two years ago (and is visiting Duke this year).

In any case, the Tigers are good enough on offense and talented enough (if not effective enough) on defense to have a prayer at getting to 11-0. There are SEC trips to Mississippi State, Kentucky and Mississippi --- hardly automatic wins, but better than trips to the Swamp and Death Valley --- and a lot of home cooking before an Iron Bowl trip to Tuscaloosa.

This isn't a prediction Auburn cracks the top 10 and has a chance to win the SEC entering Thanksgiving weekend; a defense that gave up 30 points on seven occasions last year would make that borderline nuts. But there would be more surprising outcomes this season than a stealthy BCS push by the Tigers.

No. 18 MIAMI

Here's the moment of truth: Does anyone really trust Miami to become a consistent team?

This isn't the sort of question along the lines of "Does anyone think the Hurricanes won't get shut out by Virginia?" Miami's moved past that sort of problem, and it absolutely must be viewed as a top-20 team going forward.

This is a bunch that beat Oklahoma hammered Georgia Tech and pulled out a stirring opening week defeat of Florida State. It also flopped at Virginia Tech and North Carolina and nearly got stung at Wake Forest.

Jacory Harris can be one of the nation's top quarterbacks. He can also be a complete wreck, depending on the day. Those 17 interceptions don't just throw themselves.

The defense is good. Not vintage The U good, but that's an absurd standard. It should still be better this fall than it was a year ago.

And so it's time to return to the original point. Can Miami be trusted to be a top-10 team all the time? The guess here is not quite yet. There will be nights when the Hurricanes look invincible, and there are a couple national title contenders (Ohio State, Virginia Tech) that had better hope it doesn't come at their expense.

But that wasn't an every-week occurrence for Miami last fall. Until proven otherwise, it's best not to count on it being the case now, either.

No. 17 NORTH CAROLINA

The Tar Heels will be fine on defense, what with a unit stocked with future pros and solid enough special teams.

But the offense ... oh dear.

Yes, 10 starters are back, but they're part of a unit that ranked in the bottom 10 percent nationally in total yardage and the ACC's third-worst passing attack (behind Georgia Tech's option-scheme and whatever snarky moniker you wish to provide to Virginia's attempt to throw the ball last year).

In particular, there's the question of whether T.J. Yates is a good enough quarterback to lead a team to a championship. It's a great curiosity, and it has to be one of the top questions on the minds of Tar Heels fans --- beyond, of course, (a) Is Harrison Barnes a hardwood deity; (b) Did John Henson add any muscle this offseason; and (c) What nuggets of wisdom did Roy Williams get from his massage therapist lately?

OK, enough with poking fun at Carolina as a hoops school. Its football --- a sleeping giant since Mack Brown departed for Texas --- should be good this fall. But what exactly does it take at quarterback to win the ACC.

Let's cue up the last 10 years:

QUARTERBACKS ON ACC CHAMPS, 2000-09

Year	QB	C-A (Pct.)	Yards	TD	INT
2000	Chris Weinke	266-431 (61.7)	4167	33	11
2001	Shaun Hill	197-329 (59.9)	2380	13	9
2002	Chris Rix	118-225 (52.4)	1684	13	7
2003	Chris Rix	216-382 (56.5)	3107	23	13
2004	Bryan Randall	170-306 (55.6)	2264	21	9
2005	Drew Weatherford	276-469 (58.8)	3208	18	18
2006	Riley Skinner	171-260 (65.8)	2051	9	5
2007	Sean Glennon	143-235 (60.9)	1796	12	5
2008	Tyrod Taylor	99-173 (57.2)	1036	2	7
2009	Josh Nesbitt	75-162 (46.3)	1701	10	5

It's funny. Yates' completion percentage from a season ago would rank fourth on that list. His yardage trumps half of those guys. His touchdown total was more than the last four title winning QBs. And his interception total ... well, that's better left untouched.

(It's also crucial to mention Taylor had 738 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in '08, while Nesbitt had 1,037 yards and 18 TDs on the ground last year).

The overall point here is Yates isn't a massive outlier among guys who have hauled home a conference title of late, which might surprise Carolina fans.

Sure, he probably won't be an NFL star (who on that list above was) and he still needs to get better --- cutting down on those 15 interceptions would be a nice start. But Carolina's offensive problems can't all be pinned on him, and the Tar Heels need to improve everywhere as a unit and not just under center. If that happens, Butch Davis' team might not just be a trendy pick. It could be an accurate one.

No. 16 GEORGIA TECH

With Paul Johnson running the offense and former Virginia coach Al Groh handling the defense, the Yellow Jackets are virtually certain to lead the league in hubris. Both are extremely intelligent guys when it comes to their profession, both can maximize the production of their units among the best in their business and they're both keenly aware of their knowledge and abilities.

There's also a better chance than most realize that the Yellow Jackets lead the league in wins, too.

Georgia Tech is the rare situation where turnover in offensive linemen is actually a good thing. Johnson is slowly but surely working his preferred sort of blocker --- quick and agile over slow and plodding --- into the mix. And don't worry much about Jonathan Dwyer's departure; the Yellow Jackets will simply plug-n-play Anthony Allen, who averaged 9.7 yards a carry a season ago.

There are some questions on defense, but Groh can usually coach up players as well as anyone. One telling thing about Virginia teams of the last decade --- even the bad ones in recent years --- is they never quit on Groh. That said, he'll probably be pretty happy to coach the defense of a team that held the ball for 33:49 a game last season. Coordinating the defense is a bit easier when the offense keeps you off the field.

Ultimately, it will be Josh Nesbitt (and his ability to stay on the field) that determines whether this projection is too optimistic. While running backs are particularly disposable in Johnson's system, effective quarterbacks are not.

The Yellow Jackets' season will hinge on a stretch featuring consecutive trips to Clemson and Virginia Tech, followed by a home date with Miami. If Nesbitt makes it to that point unscathed, Georgia Tech will have a chance to return to the Orange Bowl this year.

College football countdown: Nos. 21-25

Five more teams as the top of the list inches ever closer ...

No. 25 NOTRE DAME

Go ahead and underestimate Brian Kelly. Dare you.

For once, Notre Dame didn't simply elevate an assistant with no head coaching experience (Bob Davie) or pluck a fairly successful coach from an academically-oriented school (Tyrone Willingham) or just hand the keys to a storied program to a blustery NFL coordinator with virtually no background in the college game (Charlie Weis).

No, this time, the Irish went with a long-time coach at three schools who simply won. A lot. He went 34-6 in three years at Cincinnati, a run that's going to look downright impossible another 20 years down the road.

Unlike Willingham (who won six of his first eight games by 10 points or less) or Weis (who beat three ranked teams in his first five games on the job and then knocked off one more in another four-plus seasons), Kelly actually should get credit if Notre Dame surges this year. After a 6-9 record in one-possession games the last two seasons (some "decided schematic advantage," huh?), no one will complain if luck favors the Irish.

Kelly is fortunate to have a schedule designed for a bounceback season. The Irish play three true road games (Michigan State, Boston College and Southern California), and Western Michigan, Tulsa and Utah all pay a visit to South Bend in what might be Notre Dame's least glitzy home schedule in quite some time.

Kelly's a confident guy, willing to speak his mind --- but in a less abrasive way than Weis. That will help erase some lingering frustration from the last few seasons. But more than anything else, winning will do that. Kelly has exactly one losing season in 20 years as a head coach, and it's not likely for that total to double this autumn --- or in any year in the near future.

No. 24 WEST VIRGINIA

The Mountaineers have rattled off eight straight winning seasons --- the first time the program has done so since a 12-year stretch from 1914 to 1926 (there was a season lost to World War I in there).

Throughout this stretch, there have been periods West Virginia has gone through as a program. There was the "Hey, Rich Rodriguez got the team fast in a hurry" phase. Then came perhaps a hint of impatience in 2004, followed by the three straight 11-win seasons. 

Rodriguez, of course, bolted, and Bill Stewart managed a pair of 9-4 years. A third in a row could be in the cards.

The Mountaineers need to find a new quarterback (again), only this time they'll turn to a true sophomore rather than a fifth-year senior (Jarrett Brown). That's going to cause some early issues, and while the defense should be better this fall, Mountaineers fan could easily feel like their team is plateauing a rung below where it was only a couple years ago once this season is through.

No. 23 FLORIDA STATE

No, there wasn't some plan to trot out Florida State the same day Christian Ponder's new website was unveiled. Besides, Ponder --- as good as he is --- is going to account for only so much improvement on his own.

The issue in Tallahassee for the foreseeable future is defense. It was, to put things diplomatically, below average a season ago.

The most telling number: The Seminoles gave up 40 points three times in four weeks during one midseason stretch. Florida State had 40 hung on them three times total during one 16-year stretch (1987-2002).

An up-close look at the Seminoles in November revealed a startlingly shoddy defense. It was sort of like watching North Carolina's basketball team in 2002; sure, the trappings were basically the same, but the talent just wasn't there.

There's a new defensive coordinator (Mark Stoops) and plenty of new starters, which in this situation isn't all bad. If the Seminoles can just achieve adequacy on defense, Ponder and a veteran offensive line will take care of securing the program's first Atlantic Division title since 2005.

No. 22 PENN STATE

If there is a team whose expectations should be reined in simply because of its schedule, it is Penn State.

The Nittany Lions must visit Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State, all while breaking in a new quarterback and working with a revamped front seven on defense.

The schedule does bring a nice treat --- a "road" game against Indiana in Landover, Md. But effectively playing five conference home games (who really thinks FedEx Field will be a pro-Indiana environment on Nov. 20?) only does so much to make up for the brutal road the Nits will face.

The last five years were incredibly impressive in Happy Valley --- 51-13, with a couple BCS bowl appearances. Penn State probably won't make a trip to Pasadena on New Year's, but a 10-3 season isn't out of the question. That would include Joe Paterno's 400th career victory, a feat Nittany Lions fans can only hope comes during one of three midseason home games.

No. 21 PITTSBURGH

Tailback Dion Lewis is back for another romp through the history books. That's good.

Quarterback Bill Stull, who completed 65.1 percent of his passes last season and tossed 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, is not back. That's not good.

Oh, and that guy on the sideline. He still scares the heck out of me. The Panthers have won their share of close games the last few years, but it's also worth pointing out the Panthers' last five losses have come by a combined 21 points.

Nonetheless, Pittsburgh has accrued plenty of talent in the last few seasons, and it's important to allot some of the credit for that to Dave Wannstedt. At this point, it's left the Panthers in as good a position as anyone in the Big East.

That's why, with a measure of reluctance, Pitt is the pick here to win the Big East. There's ample opportunities for a nonconference loss (Utah, Miami, Notre Dame) and it's difficult to imagine the Panthers hanging around the top 10. But it's a solid group, and a trip to the Orange Bowl is the next logical step for a program that's won 19 games the last two years.

College football countdown: Nos. 26-30

The top 25 looms.

For now, here's five teams that, for whatever reason, just didn't make the cut.

No. 30 CINCINNATI

There's a traveling two-team experiment about to get underway in a couple months. I like to call it the Brian Kelly Effect.

People should already know how good a coach Kelly is. Please notice the absence of traditional D1scourse punching bag Notre Dame on the countdown to this point.

But Kelly's influence won't be seen in just how good Notre Dame is, but how much Cincinnati regresses this fall.

Remember, the Bearcats were a second away from playing Alabama in the national title game. Instead, Texas got life, then a last-second field goal against Nebraska and then a loss to Texas in Pasadena.

Kelly took a team with one returning starter on defense and souped up the offense to render average play on the other side of the ball fairly irrelevant. He also got Cincinnati to win its final three conference games by a combined six points.

The Bearcats will take a step back, in large part because they have to. But there's enough here for a chance to collect a third straight Big East title. With Louisville, South Florida and Syracuse to open league play, Cincinnati surely can extend its conference winning streak by a game or three. That would fit with history, which shows such skids come to an end in November.

LONGEST CONFERENCE WINNING STREAKS, BIG EAST

27: Miami (1999-2003) --- ended Nov. 1, 2003, by Virginia Tech (31-7)

14: Virginia Tech (1998-2000) --- ended Nov. 4, 2000, by Miami (41-21)

12: Miami (1991-93) --- ended Nov. 20, 1993, by West Virginia (17-14)
12: Cincinnati (2008-present)

11: Syracuse (1991-92) --- ended Nov. 21, 1992, by Miami (16-10)

10: Miami (1995-96) --- ended Nov. 16, 1996, by Virginia Tech (21-7)
10: West Virginia (2003-04) --- ended Nov. 13, 2004, by Boston College (36-17)

No. 29 UTAH

The Utes already have a fine head start on power conference membership.

No, no, no. It has nothing to do with stellar unbeaten seasons in 2004 and 2008 that exponentially raised the program's profile, though those perfect runs surely helped.

Instead, Utah has already mastered the art of getting credit with poll voters based on past performance rather than current production.

The Utes beat precisely two eventual bowl teams during the regular season --- Air Force (in OT) and Wyoming --- yet remained ranked almost the entire time. In many ways, the best thing Utah did all year was stay close to Brigham Young and Oregon on the road. A bowl defeat of a wounded Cal outfit was nice, too.

This year, expect a similar ranking with a better team. The Utes' offense should be, and the defense routinely keeps opponents below 21 points a game. That shouldn't change even with some personnel turnover.

Utah has a chance to overperform this projection. It gets Brigham Young and Texas Christian at home, and opens with Pittsburgh in Salt Lake City on a Thursday night --- one of the first weekend's most intriguing games. Whatever the Utes do, you can count on them earning it on the field rather than riding the coattails of a predecessor into top-20 standing for much of the season.

No. 28 SOUTH CAROLINA

In lieu of a preview of what could be Steve Spurrier's best team in six seasons in Columbia --- yet one that pretty much universally is considered the No. 3 team in the SEC East behind Florida and Georgia --- here's a look at the best winning percentages by coaching stint in the SEC since 1990 (minimum three seasons; only seasons since 1990 counted):

1. Urban Meyer, Florida, 2005-present (.851, 57-10)
2. Steve Spurrier, Florida, 1990-2002 (.817, 122-27-1)
3. Gene Stallings, Alabama, 1990-96 (.810, 70-16-1)
4. Nick Saban, Alabama, 2007-present (.805, 33-8)

5. Mark Richt, Georgia, 2001-present (.769, 90-27)
6. Les Miles, Louisiana State, 2005-present (.773, 51-15)
7. Nick Saban, Louisiana State, 2000-04 (.750, 48-16)
8. Phil Fulmer, Tennessee, 1992-2008 (.745, 152-52)
9. Terry Bowden, Auburn, 1993-98 (.731, 47-17-1)

10. Tommy Tuberville, Auburn, 1999-08 (.680, 85-40)
11. Jim Donnan, Georgia, 1996-2000 (.678), 40-19)
12. Ron Zook, Florida, 2002-04 (.622, 23-14)
13. Houston Nutt, Arkansas, 1998-07 (.610, 75-48)
14. Billy Brewer, Mississippi, 1990-93 (.609, 28-18)
15. David Cutcliffe, Mississippi, 1998-2004 (.603, 44-29)

16. Ray Goff, Georgia, 1989-95 (.574, 46-34-1)
17. Gerry DiNardo, Louisiana State, 1995-99 (.571, 32-24-1)
18. Pat Dye, Auburn, 1990-92, (.559, 18-14-2)
T19. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina, 2005-present (.556, 35-28)
T19. Tommy Tuberville, Mississippi, 1995-98 (.556, 25-20)

Spurrier's accomplishments with the Gamecocks are nothing to be embarrassed by. He's the only South Carolina coach to have a winning overall record since Joe Morrison's run in the mid-1980s. The Gamecocks have reached four bowl games in five years. With a 2-12 record in that span against Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Louisiana State in that span and a 16-8 mark against everyone else in that span, the Gamecocks have taken their rightful place in the SEC's pecking order.

But something seems wrong. And that something is that Spurrier was such a successful character during his coaching incarnation in the Swamp. Sure, he fizzled with Washington in the NFL, but he wasn't in a cult of one there.

Five years into Spurrier's tenure at South Carolina, it seems the old Fun-N-Gun magic will never return, at least not for his teams. None of his Gamecock outfits have averaged 400 yards total offense; as a point of reference, that total would have ranked 45th nationally last year.

This isn't an indictment of Spurrier, whose reputation will remain strong even if it is a bit tarnished by an inability to turn South Carolina into a power. It's more a reminder to the rest of us that the past is difficult to duplicate, and the single greatest ingredient in coaching success is a surplus of talent.

He had it at Florida, which is why only one of his successors has done better in the SEC in the last two decades. And he does not at South Carolina, which explains why he's swimming around with the Ray Goffs and Gerry DiNardos of the world during his time with the Gamecocks. If ever there was a chance to rewrite his South Carolina legacy, it's this year.

Spurrier's history, though, hints at a remarkable level of predictability. Duke improved in his first season and continued to do so. Florida went 9-2 in 1990, then hauled home the first of six SEC titles the next year. The Redskins stunk both seasons under the Ol' Ball Coach. And South Carolina spent the latter half of the last decade stuck in 7-5 Land.

Things could get better this year, though it's difficult to say with a straight face the Gamecocks will be vastly improved. What you see is what you get, and that's a hard thing to finally acknowledge about Spurrier's stint at South Carolina.

No. 27 HOUSTON

Some perspective, if you will, on the top fivepassing seasons in Houston football history:

5,671: Case Keenum, 2009
5,140: David Klingler, 1990
5,020: Case Keenum, 2008
4,699: Andre Ware, 1989
3,809: Kevin Kolb, 2006

Basically, he's a ridiculous talent for a ridiculous system. And while he probably isn't quite as absurd as Klingler was (Klingler averaged 467.3 yards a game as a senior, while Keenum checked in with "just" 405.1 yards; Ware's Heisman season included 427.2 yards a game), he'll still be one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in college football this fall.

But a Heisman candidate? There's two things holding him back.

One is schedule. Houston beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in September last year. This time, they open with Texas State, nemesis UTEP, UCLA, Tulane, Mississippi State and Rice. Besides perhaps the trip to L.A., the star power is lacking.

The second is a fairly consistent unwillingness of late for voters to reward quarterbacks in pass-heavy schemes. Ware and Ty Detmer won back-to-back in 1989 and 1990, but it's been considerably tougher for similar quarterbacks to land in contention thanks to a presumably wary electorate.

Of course, there's one other thing (for better or for worse) that will impact Keenum's candidacy, and that would be winning. If Houston can overcome its porous defense and run the table, his name will be heard in many plays. But considering the Cougars had the nation's No. 1 offense last year and still lost four games, here's guessing Keenum's Heisman hype dries up before November (if not a little sooner).

No. 26 LOUISIANA STATE

Great defense. Bad offense. That about sums up the Tigers.

And if neither of those change, another 9-4 season (or perhaps 8-5) could be in the offing.

It's difficult to explain how a team that got outgained by more than 23 yards a game could wind up 9-4. A major part of it was Trindon Holliday, who ranked second nationally with 18.1 yards per punt return.

Holliday's gone, and with him is an easy way to cover up some offensive inefficiencies. The Tigers' offense should be better, but that will only help so much with the likes of Alabama, Auburn, Florida and North Carolina to deal with.

There's a lot to learn about Louisiana State in its opener, a neutral-field date with North Carolina in Atlanta. Vegas would be wise to set the over/under at about 25, and that might not be the last time it's possible to say that about a game involving the Tigers this season.

College football countdown: Nos. 31-35

It's de facto Big 12 day on the countdown.

Six of the teams from the temporarily 12-team league remain for the top 35. Half of them will pop up in the rest of this entry.

Oh, and so does Boston College.

Onward ...

35. MISSOURI

The Tigers got hammered last year by Navy, Oklahoma State and Texas (and eventually got reamed in the fourth quarter of a slopfest against Nebraska). The year before that, they were drubbed by Oklahoma and Texas. In 2007, Mizzou was dumped twice by Oklahoma.

Despite seasons with 12-2 and 10-4 records in the latter half of the Chase Daniel years, the Tigers get tagged with a close-but-not-quite label. They might be the Big 12's fourth-best team, but they're stuck playing Wile E. Coyote to the conference's traditional powers' Roadrunner.

There's a real chance that plays out in classic Missouri fashion this year. The early schedule --- five teams that didn't play in a bowl game last year, followed by a trip to Texas A&M --- is the sort of thing that can help Blaine Gabbert get his junior season off to a fine start and perhaps help the Tigers sweep the first half of their schedule.

Then comes Oklahoma and Nebraska in late October. Just like that, the Tigers will be back in the discussion for a trip to the Alamo Bowl.

Gary Pinkel probably doesn't get enough credit for shepherding the Tigers out a two-decade wilderness of irrelevance. It's not a Bill Snyder-type resurrection, but it's certainly strong. But when you break down Pinkel's 36-38 conference record (including league title game trips) by Big 12 opponent, it's abundantly clear where Missouri stands in the present day.

4-1: Baylor

3-1: Texas A&M
3-1: Texas Tech

6-3: Iowa State

5-4: Colorado
5-4: Kansas

4-5: Kansas State
4-5: Nebraska

2-3: Oklahoma State

0-5: Texas
0-6: Oklahoma

The Tigers are pretty well-entrenched in the tier below the elite in their conference. Don't plan on that changing this season.

34. STANFORD

There's every reason in the world to believe the Cardinal will be the latest team to demonstrate running back is perhaps the most replaceable position on the field.

Now hold up a minute. This isn't to say Toby Gerhart wasn't a good, even great, player during his career on the Farm.

It's just that four offensive linemen (plus quarterback Andrew Luck) return for Stanford. Gerhart's backups averaged 6.3 yards (Jeremy Stewart) and 5.4 yards (Stepfan Taylor) a carry a year ago, while Gerhart checked in at 5.5 yards a rush.

The pieces are in place for Stanford to at least replicate its 8-5 season of a year ago, if not improve it by a game or two. The Cardinal have posted better records in each of Jim Harbaugh's three seasons, something only six programs have accomplished in that span:

IMPROVED WIN TOTALS, THREE STRAIGHT YEARS (Listed as 06-07-08-09)

Alabama: 6-7-12-14
Cincinnati: 8-10-11-12
Duke: 0-1-4-5
Stanford: 1-4-5-8
Temple: 1-4-5-9
Utah State: 1-2-3-4

33. BOSTON COLLEGE

Just three times in the last 10 seasons did an ACC player set a school career rushing record.

Maryland's LaMont Jordan did it in 2000. Duke's Chris Douglas pulled it off in 2003. And two years later, Chris Barclay did the same thing at Wake Forest.

There's a very real chance Montel Harris pulls it off this year for Boston College --- as a junior.

Harris has 2,357 yards. Derrick Knight --- who played at Boston College from 2000 to 2003, but did so while the Eagles were in the Big East --- rolled up 3,725 yards.

Some quick math says Harris needs 1,369 yards for the record, or a little more than 105 yards a game (assuming BC makes a bowl game).

Count on it happening. The Eagles aren't going to abandon their run-heavy offensive approach, and they can be counted upon to be stout on defense --- particularly against the run.

Few teams cling to the fundamental notion that winning is predicated on controlling the line of scrimmage as much as Boston College does. Not-so-coincidentally, few teams exceed expectations on an annual basis as consistently as the Eagles.

There will be no severe underestimation of Boston College here. The Eagles have won eight games for nine years running. This isn't a national title contender and it's likely the first law of ACC bowl selection ("BC shalt always get screwed") will lead to a December trip to Shreveport. But with a friendly finish (Maryland, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse dot the second half of the schedule), the Eagles have a real chance to be in the Atlantic Division chase deep into November.

32. TEXAS TECH

Tommy Tuberville made some headlines this past week for pointing out the future of the Big 12 is murky at best despite the salvage job done last month.

What isn't quite so murky: The new Red Raiders coach is going to have his hands full keeping Texas Tech among the top three teams in the current (but soon to be abolished) South Division.

Texas and Oklahoma aren't going anywhere. Texas A&M is getting better. And the Red Raiders, aside from their 11-2 run in 2008, are a drip-drip-drip of eight- and nine-win seasons.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Texas Tech has actually done well against Oklahoma and even won that wild game in Lubbock against Texas two years back. But as good a hire as Tuberville was (the guy did lead Auburn to an unbeaten season not all that long ago), it's anyone's guess whether Mike Leach's crazy offensive genius will leave any sort of residue for too much longer.

Tuberville has time to find his inner pirate and keep things humming along at Texas Tech. For this year, though, 8-5 seems just about right for the Red Raiders.

31. TEXAS A&M

This season is really pretty simple for the Aggies.

If they can field an average defense, they'll safely land in a mid-tier bowl.

If they cannot, Mike Sherman could be feeling a pretty toasty seat.

Almost quietly, Texas A&M deployed one of the best quarterbacks you haven't seen much of (Jerrod Johnson) and finished fifth nationally in total offense. But they were a complete disaster on defense, giving up more yards per game (426.3) than all but two BCS conference schools.

One was Florida State, who gave up at least 21 points to all but one major-college opponent. The other was Washington State, which was just horrible.

Johnson will certainly make some believers, and the fact the Aggies must cross the state line only twice all season (to play fairly winnable games at Oklahoma State and Kansas) will help. A bruising home conference schedule --- Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska --- will only help so much.

Texas A&M hung with enough teams last season to provide hope this year could be even better. And it should be, assuming no one sees a 10-win season in the near future in College Station.

College football countdown: Nos. 36-40

Starting the final third of the countdown ...

40. WASHINGTON

If Charlie Weis could win 10 games with Tyrone Willingham's players, why not Steve Sarkisian?

OK, that might be a stretch. So, too, is imagining the Huskies charging to the top of the Pac-10 after six straight losing seasons.

Yes, Washington has Jake Locker at quarterback. And the Huskies certainly have a lot back from a team that upended Southern California and hammered California at home.

Some emphasis should be added to "at home."

Since 2003, the Huskies are 5-26 in Pac-10 road games, including 10 straight setbacks. Keith Gilbertson was the coach when U-Dub last beat a conference team headed for a winning season on the road:

2003 Oregon State: 8-5
2005 Arizona: 3-8
2006 Arizona: 6-6
2006 Washington State: 6-6
2007 Stanford: 4-8

Now comes the fun part: Washington draws Oregon, Southern California, Arizona and California on the road (along with Rotten Apple Cup rival Washington State).

The Huskies should finally return to a bowl game for the first time since 2002. But a rerun of Notre Dame '06 --- tons of wins, great quarterback, BCS bowl berth, team composed mostly of guys Willingham brought in --- just doesn't seem likely despite Washington apparently being something of a trendy pick.

39. BRIGHAM YOUNG

A rundown of the programs with the most consecutive 10-win seasons:

9: Texas

6: Virginia Tech

5: Ohio State

4: Boise State
4: Brigham Young

3: Cincinnati

2: Alabama
2: Florida
2: Oregon
2: Penn State
2: Texas Christian
2: Utah

Bet you didn't realize the Cougars were so far up this list. It has a little something to do with the five straight Las Vegas Bowl invites Brigham Young has rolled up in that stretch. Every other team on the list has played in a BCS game in the last two years.

It'll be a struggle, though, to extend the streak to five seasons.

Brigham Young will replace its top passer, rusher and receiver. It plays Washington and Florida State in the first two weeks, and draws Mountain West favorites Texas Christian and Utah on the road.

Maybe the Cougars surpass this set of expectations, but getting to 10-3 this time around will be awfully difficult.

38. MICHIGAN STATE

The Spartans are sort of the Big Ten's equivalent of Connecticut, only with a lot more tradition, a much bigger stadium and quite an impressive recent history of quarterbacks.

They also can't do a whole lot against ranked teams.

Michigan State is 1-9 against top-25 foes in Mark Dantonio's three seasons, and a healthy 21-8 against everyone else. The lone win came last year against Michigan, a defeat that precipitated a 1-7 tailspin for the Wolverines.

Basically, Dantonio's done a good job. He's reached three bowl games, defeated Michigan and Notre Dame twice each and hasn't slapped his head during a postgame press conference. That's improvement for Sparty.

But has he done a great job? Probably not. This year represents a chance to get things headed in the right direction, and the fact Ohio State isn't on the schedule (again) should help. Michigan State doesn't cross the state line until Oct. 23, so there's an opportunity to get off to a good start and crack the top 25 in the season's early stages.

37. NAVY

Could this be the golden age of Navy football?

Well, maybe.

Let's line the last seven years up against the only realistic candidate that could match it --- the run from 1954 to 1963:

Category	1954-63	2003-09
Record	70-25-5 (.725)	61-29 (.678)
Bowls	4 (2-2)	7 (3-4)
vs. Army	7-2-1	7-0
vs. Notre Dame	5-5	2-5
vs. Air Force	1-0	7-0
Heisman winners	2	0

It all depends on what you're looking for, of course. And for many Navy fans, that 7-0 record against Army will trump a lot of things.

Realistically, it's an unfair comparison. The sport was different a half-century ago. Back then, Navy played in the Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls --- all in a seven-year span, and the professional game hadn't exploded to the point of making the service academies (and their military commitments) less desirable options to the best players.

Nonetheless, what Navy has done for the better part of the last decade is remarkable. With much of the offense --- including quarterback Ricky Dobbs and his 27 rushing touchdowns --- back and a manageable schedule that includes just four true road games, the Midshipmen are well-position for another strong year.

Will it be a top-25 campaign for Navy? Perhaps. Chances are, Dobbs will need another 1,000-yard rushing/1,000-yard passing season to pull that off. If he does, he'd join this list of players with two or more seasons in the 1,000-1,000 Club:

Beau Morgan, Air Force 1995-06
Joshua Cribbs, Kent State 2001-02
Brad Smith, Missouri, 2002-03, 2005
Vince Young, Texas, 2004-05
Patrick White, West Virginia, 2006-07
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada, 2008-09

36. ARIZONA

There is a lot to like about the Wildcats' offense.

Most of all, they had one of the nation's most efficient pass protection schemes and return all but one starter from the entire unit:

FEWEST SACKS ALLOWED, 2009

School	Sacks Yielded	Pass Att.	Att./Sack
Boise State	5	294	58.8
Stanford	7	313	44.7
Army	10	161	16.1
Air Force	11	153	13.9
Georgia	12	346	28.8
Georgia Tech	12	168	14.0
Nevada	12	293	24.4
North Texas	12	277	23.1
Oklahoma State	12	336	28.0
Texas Christian	12	326	27.2
Arizona	13	484	37.2
UL Lafayette	13	406	31.2
Oregon	13	338	26.0
East Carolina	14	452	32.3
Michigan State	14	423	30.2

Adjusting for passing frequency, Arizona wound up third in what could be described as pass protection efficiency. Not bad.

Now, if only the Wildcats' defense can hold up its end of the deal. Arizona has little coming back on that side of the ball, and it would come as no shock if the Wildcats wind up matching last year's total of being involved in four conference games in which both teams posted at least 30 points.

The offense will be fine. If the defense is, too, this is a stealthy Rose Bowl candidate.

College football countdown: Nos. 41-45

The midsummer holiday weekend slows down a fair amount of work.

It definitely slows down traffic to a college sports-oriented blog.

It does not, however, slow down the countdown. Much.

Here's five more teams ...

No. 45 NEVADA

Ladies and gentlemen, the top 20 rushing offenses of the last 10 years:

349.3: 2000 Nebraska
348.8: 2007 Navy
344.9: 2009 Nevada
327.0: 2006 Navy
323.2: 2003 Navy
323.0: 2000 Ohio
318.7: 2005 Navy
316.7: 2003 Rice
314.7: 2001 Nebraska
307.8: 2002 Air Force
306.6: 2004 Rice
303.0: 2006 West Virginia
299.5: 2007 Air Force
299.1: 2004 Texas
297.2: 2007 West Virginia
295.4: 2009 Georgia Tech
294.9: 2000 Air Force
292.3: 2008 Navy
289.5: 2004 Navy
289.1: 2003 Minnesota

Consider that Nevada's running game piled up more yardage per game than all but one of the series of Navy ground juggernauts of the Paul Johnson/Ken Niumatalolo years.

The consider the Wolf Pack brings back nine starters on offense, including two of their three 1,000-yard rushers.

Yes, Nevada's defense needs some work. And, yes, it's inevitable the Wolf Pack will stumble when they play a nonconference team with any sort of reputation (go ahead and pencil in Brigham Young and/or California as losses).

For the most part, though, Nevada will dramatically overwhelm inferior opponents and will probably throw a scare into Boise State when the Broncos visit Reno the day after Thanksgiving. That likelihood alone makes the Pistol-packing Wolf Pack worth keeping an eye on.

No. 44 UCLA

June 10 will probably be a day that lives in infamy for one of Los Angeles' football programs.

For the other, though, it represents a much-coveted opportunity to finally re-establish itself as one of the Pac-10's pre-eminent programs.

Assuming Rick Neuheisel doesn't find a way to fritter it all away.

That's not to say he can't recruit. That was established long ago. It's not to say he can't coach. The guy's 77-44 in his career, but perhaps it is worth mentioning the Bruins are 2-13 against eventual postseason teams in Neuheisel's first two years in Westwood (they beat Tennessee to open 2009 and wrapped up the season with a defeat of Temple in the EagleBank Bowl).

It's just, well ... Neuheisel didn't earn the moniker "Slick Rick" for being a choir boy.

It is amusing that his opening in L.A. was created by someone else's wrongdoings, but it is still on him to keep things moving forward. Sophomore quarterback Kevin Prince should be better, and they possess a fantastic weapon in kicker and Groza Award winner Kai Forbath.

The running game absolutely must improve, but if the Bruins can develop their offense, they'll safely move into the middle of the Pac-10 and go bowling again.

No. 43 RUTGERS

Give the Scarlet Knights credit: After years of serving as a pinata for powerhouses, they sure know how to spot a nonconference mark a mile away.

Rutgers has run off five straight bowl appearances, a feat that probably should get Greg Schiano a statue (or a bronzed mini-helicopter, if he would rather honor his preferred form of transportation). Over those regular seasons, the Scarlet Knights have gone 19-5 in nonconference games.

The competition level? Not so hot. Take a look:

2005: 15-30 (.333)
2006: 28-34 (.452)
2007: 30-31 (.492)
2008: 32-31 (.508)
2009: 18-40 (.310)

Rutgers' nonconference defeats of bowl teams in that span? 2005-07 Navy and 2006 Ohio.

Yes, Rutgers picks up its series against North Carolina this year. It also gets a team from the former Division I-AA (Norfolk State), Florida International, Army and Tulane. Chances are good that winning percentage doesn't come close to .500 unless Norfolk State turns in a decent year (which is possible).

Rutgers should (and probably will) be 5-1 or 4-2 when it enters the second half of its schedule. And just like last year at that time, no one is going to have any way what to make of the Scarlet Knights --- other than that they'll be on their way to another postseason berth.

No. 42 CONNECTICUT

An admission of a somewhat incorrect viewpoint I've held for a couple years: Few power conference programs seem as boring as Connecticut.

That's unfair to some extent. The Huskies played some insanely exciting games last year (the Notre Dame win and Cincinnati loss come to mind, and eight of their 13 contests were decided by 10 points or less). They've been to three straight bowls and won eight games each of those seasons.

Of course, it's not as if UConn feels like it's a top-10 or top-20 program, either. It goes about its business, rolls up solid seasons, visits a mid-tier bowl game (recent postseason destinations: Charlotte, Toronto and Birmingham) and is merrily on its way.

Perhaps this is the thing that prompts some ennui: A 1-15 record against ranked teams since 2001.

Over the last three seasons, the Huskies are 1-5 when facing ranked opponents (the victory came against South Florida in 2007) and 24-9 against the unranked masses. That's good, not great, and certainly not overwhelmingly fascinating in the big picture. It's also enough of a justification to peg the Huskies in their usual neighborhood, even with a plethora of experience coming back.

No. 41 CLEMSON

C.J. Spiller's gone. So's Ricky Sapp. Quarterback Kyle Parker might as well be, and for the purposes of this ranking it's assumed he'll sign with the Colorado Rockies later this summer and end his college football career.

And all of this begs the question: Is Clemson expected to be good this year? Or do most people anticipate the Tigers fading back to 7-5 territory?

It's an important point thanks to the omnipresent force known here as Clemsonliness, which dictated the overhyped 2008 team would disappoint (it did) and last year's unheralded outfit would overachieve (it did).

It's hard to tell where this team is going. The defense should be good, even though the linebackers still aren't particularly special. Perhaps the Tigers should trade a defensive end to nemesis Maryland in exchange for a linebacker to iron out that deficiency.

Spiller's absence will be felt more on special teams; Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper are more than competent replacements, and much of last year's offensive line returns intact.

The big question is whether or not Clemson can survive a schedule that sets them up for serious headaches. The Tigers draw Georgia Tech, Miami and North Carolina from the Coastal Division (no Duke or Virginia to be seen), must visit Boston College and Florida State and also take an early swing to Auburn.

It has to sound scary to Tigers fans, who no doubt realize there's a real chance redshirt freshman Tajh Boyd is thrown into the fire if/when Parker commits to baseball. If Dabo Swinney somehow coaxes another nine wins out of the Tigers, he'll warrant a raise nearly as big as the one he received after last season.

College football countdown: Nos. 46-50

At this point, just about every edition of the countdown will feature some program of substantial prominence.

That's to be expected at the end, but maybe not at this stage.

Nonetheless, Tennessee went off the board in yesterday's interval. Today, it's time to finally trot out Michigan --- as well as four other teams.

Read on. ...

No. 50 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Every now and then, there's a team that for whatever reason just catches your attention. It doesn't have to make much sense. Southern Mississippi is that team for this countdown.

The Eagles are coming off a fairly nondescript 7-6 season, but have been to eight straight bowls and should contend for the Conference USA East title with East Carolina's roster wiped out by graduation.

A defense that was midpack nationally --- but in the top third of C-USA --- brings back nine starters. Despite the pass-heavy nature of the league, the Eagles should hold up on defense better than most of their fellow conference members.

Southern Mississippi loses a lot from its offense, but neither of the quarterbacks who combined to throw 26 touchdowns against five interceptions. And then there's also the matter that coach Larry Fedora kind of knows what he's doing on offense.

A look at his teams' yards and points per game since 2004:

2004: 427 ypg, 31.8 ppg (Florida OC)
2005: 325 ypg, 20.2 ppg (Oklahoma State OC)
2006: 410 ypg, 35.2 ppg (Oklahoma State OC)
2007: 486 ypg, 34.6 ppg (Oklahoma State OC)
2008: 434 ypg, 30.6 ppg (Southern Miss HC)
2009: 416 ypg, 32.9 ppg (Southern Miss HC)

We should all be smart enough to quit tossing around the label "offensive genius," but Fedora is clearly doing something right. Even with some rebuilding to do in crucial spots (ahem, offensive line), the Eagles should be fine. Fedora's track record certainly suggests the offense won't be a problem.

No. 49 MICHIGAN

For those who figured Rich Rodriguez would make history at Michigan, well, they were correct.

Just not the sort anyone would have guessed.

A few notable Rodriguez facts before moving along:

* He's the first Michigan coach to produce consecutive losing seasons to begin a career.

* He's the first Michigan coach whose career record in Ann Arbor ever reached eight games below .500 (8-16 entering this season).

* He's the first Michigan coach to land the program on probation.

* He's lost 13 Big Ten games --- or the same number of conference defeats Bo Schembechler suffered in his first 13 seasons with the Wolverines.

All that being said, Michigan should be better this year. Maybe a lot better. The Wolverines at least has a chance to have the same starting quarterback (Tate Forcier) in consecutive seasons for the first time since Chad Henne, a name Michigan fans have probably grown quite wistful for in the last two years.

Rodriguez's stumbles will be forgotten if Michigan can get back its accustomed spot near the top of the Big Ten. Another losing season will probably be seen as a trainwreck and get Rodriguez shown the door. There might not be a more glaring spotlight in the entire sport this fall than the one focused on the Big House for seven Saturdays. Trips to Penn State and Ohio State won't help, but the Wolverines should show enough improvement to get back to the postseason.

No. 48 NORTHWESTERN

Somehow, some way, there's a midpack major-conference team that grabs attention by beating up on flotsam and jetsam, only to deflate once the real schedule begins.

This year, the Wildcats are that team.

Northwestern is a nice enough team --- certainly one that could land in a middle-to-lower tier bowl, even with the need to replace its quarterback and top two receivers. But take a look at this schedule:

at Vanderbilt
Illinois State
at Rice
Central Michigan
at Minnesota
Purdue
BYE
Michigan State
at Indiana

Folks, that has 7-1 (or perhaps even 8-0) written all over it. Sure, there are four road games, but the toughest test (Michigan State) comes in Evanston and after a bye week. Advantage: Purple.

It's a great setup for the Wildcats to be in the top-15, only to author a "collapse" with a November slate of Penn State (in Happy Valley), Iowa, Illinois (at Wrigley Field) and Wisconsin (in Madison).

The reality is Northwestern should be in the 8-4 or 7-5 ballpark anyway. The Wildcats just have a really interesting way they can arrive at that point.

No. 47 CALIFORNIA

The Golden Bears began four of the last five seasons ranked, but not once in that stretch did they land in a better place in the top 25 than they started.

That shouldn't be a problem this year, as enough voters will look at the departure of tailback Jahvid Best and knock Cal down a peg or two.

The problem isn't Best, who will be capably replaced by Shane Vereen. Nor will it be a veteran offensive line, that will continue to open holes as efficiently as its many Jeff Tedford-coached predecessors have.

No, the issues here are inconsistency at quarterback and a secondary that was torched for nearly 267 yards a game despite enjoying the services of one of the Pac-10's best corners (Syd'Quan Thompson).

The margin between fourth and eighth in the Pac-10 is likely to be slim, and Cal certainly will have the chance to crack the top half of the league. But with holes to plug all over the defense, it looks like the Golden Bears are a candidate to take a step back in 2010.

No. 46 SOUTH FLORIDA

Skip Holtz (Connecticut, East Carolina and now South Florida) is halfway to matching his nomadic father Lou (William and Mary, N.C. State, Arkansas, Minnesota, Notre Dame and South Carolina) in total head coaching stops at the collegiate level.

He probably won't come close to matching Pops in rambling, nearly indecipherable on-air speeches, but that's a matter for another day.

He takes over a program that plateaued under Jim Leavitt, the only coach the Bulls have known. South Florida is part of a massive cluster behind Pittsburgh in the Big East, and it has every bit as much of a chance to challenge for a league title as Connecticut, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia do.

One thing that has tripped up the running of the Bulls toward a BCS berth --- Big East road trips. A month-by-month look at that category since South Florida joined the league in 2005:

October: 1-7
November: 5-3
December: 0-2

Take out three enjoyable jaunts to Syracuse, and the Bulls are 3-12 on the road. There were wins at Rutgers in 2005, West Virginia in 2006 and Pittsburgh in 2007.

Holtz has a little bit of work to do to further solidify South Florida as a perennial Big East contender. This year, that will probably mean winning at least one of three road games (West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville) in conference play.