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College football countdown: Nos. 51-55

There's still 55 teams to go on the countdown.

All but 10 are from BCS automatic qualifying conferences. One of those is Notre Dame.

Of the remaining nine, one is in today's interval. And so are four borderline bowl teams from power conferences.

55. N.C. STATE

There's scads of interesting subplots with the Wolfpack (or is it Wolpfack?), all worth mentioning in some form or another.

Quarterback Russell Wilson returns after a 31-touchdown season and getting drafted early by the Colorado Rockies.

Linebacker Nate Irving resumes his career with a porous N.C. State defense after missing last season with injuries suffered in a serious car wreck.

Tom O'Brien begins Year No. 4 in Raleigh, and he'll have a new boss (Debbie Yow) who promised accountability throughout the N.C. State athletic department upon her hire last week.

For a middle-of-the-road program, it has a chance to be among the most interesting in the ACC.

One step toward good interest would be beating Western Carolina on Sept. 4. It would be the Wolfpack's first win in an opener since 2006 --- ending one of the longer season-opening skids among BCS conference teams.

The longest active opening-game droughts in major college football:

12: Utah State

7: Tulane

6: Northern Illinois
6: Syracuse

5: Florida International
5: Memphis
5: San Diego State
5: Western Michigan

4: New Mexico
4: Toledo
4: Virginia
4: Washington State
4: Western Kentucky

3: Illinois
3: Louisiana-Monroe
3: Middle Tennessee
3: N.C. State

54. KANSAS

The the conference expansion/obliteration wheel spun and spun last month, there was one coach who it was pretty easy to sympathize with.

A lot of people would say Kansas basketball coach Bill Self, even though he either (a) Could have gotten another really good job in a year or two or (b) Turned the Jayhawks into a Memphis-type overlord in a new league and simply scheduled like mad in nonconference play.

No, the potential loser was Turner Gill, who had escaped Buffalo with his good name intact (and actually enhanced) and got a power conference job of his own. Moreover, he stepped into a situation where a smile and a kind word was sure to ingratiate him with his new players and fans.

Fortunately for Gill, the Big 12 (Minus Two) will exist a while longer. Unfortunately for Gill, he inherits a terrible defense and an inexperienced quarterback after Todd Reesing's never-ending career actually ended.

The Jayhawks also get Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech off the schedule --- much like in 2007 --- and that will buy Gill some time. There are seven home games, a neutral-site date with Missouri and trips to Baylor and Iowa State. Don't expect a miracle run in Gill's first season, but 7-5 and a lower-tier bowl appearance could be in the cards.

53. FRESNO STATE

What you see is what you get with Pat Hill's Bulldogs.

Hill took over in the Valley in 1997. In each of his 13 seasons, Fresno finished between 6-2 and 4-4 in the WAC (there was a 5-2 mark in 1999 after the league split in two and was briefly left with eight teams).

So even accounting for Boise State's dominance, the Bulldogs invariably do two things every year: Beat or scare the bejesus out of a power conference team, and trip up against someone who doesn't win the WAC in league play.

Fresno's averaged nearly eight wins a season over the last eight years, and with a strong offensive line in place, the Bulldogs remain a good bet to finish close to the top of the conference and land in yet another bowl game.

52. MISSISSIPPI

The Rebels lost a 1,000-yard rusher (Dexter McCluster), a 1,000-yard receiver (Shay Hodge) and a quarterback who didn't live up to his Heisman-candidate billing last year but was nonetheless decent (Jevan Snead)..

Since Ole Miss isn't, say, Alabama or Florida or Louisiana State, it won't simply reload and be a borderline top-25 team.

But expecting the Rebels to completely fall apart? For those who do so, it's a trap.

While Admiral Ackbar won't be prowling the sideline in Oxford, the Rebels should be pleased they draw Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt from the East Division. Toss in three home nonconference games --- and a home date with Mississippi State --- and it should be enough to earn one of the SEC's plethora of available bowl berths.

In short, Ole Miss won't be overwhelming, but its defense should be good enough to manage seven wins and an extra month of practice.

51. TENNESSEE

It's been a quiet five months in Knoxville.

Well, relatively speaking.

Lane Kiffin is no longer around to agitate and instigate, which means the Volunteers haven't made nearly as many headlines. And that translates into non-Kiffin matters; they're nowhere to be found in the most recent Fulmer Cup standings.

Ultimately, Tennessee traded the scion of one coaching family for another. And Derek Dooley, who was 17-20 in three seasons at Louisiana Tech, takes over a program that just endured an exodus of talent.

Unlike Ole Miss ---  a team in a very similar predicament --- the Volunteers get no help on the scheduling front. Alabama and Louisiana State pop up from the West Division, and Oregon pays a visit in the second week of the season.

Dooley's greatest test will be surviving a brutal opening two months. The November schedule --- Memphis, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky --- is plenty manageable, but it won't matter if Tennessee stumbles to a 2-6 start. Matching last year's 7-6 record during the Kiffin Interregnum would be sufficient to qualify as a success this fall, even if Dooley doesn't do it with as much bravado as his predecessor.

College football countdown: Nos. 56-60

The countdown is past the halfway point, and that means the process of ranking all 120 major college teams changes direction a bit.

It was sort of difficult to slot several teams over the last installment or two. But suddenly, it seems like there's about 15 teams that belong in this grouping.

No matter. They'll pop up soon enough. For now, here's five more teams to consider ...

No. 60 CENTRAL FLORIDA

Bruce will be loose. And that will do wonders for the Knights this season.

"Bruce" is Bruce Miller, the returning Conference USA defensive player of the year. The defensive end had 13 sacks last year and is major college football's active career leader in the category with 27.

So the Knights have a pass rush, and they ranked fourth nationally against the run last year. Defensively, these guys are in great shape.

The schedule also stacks up well, too. Central Florida plays only four teams with winning records from a season ago, which should make getting back to a bowl game for the third time in four years just a little bit easier.

And if you're looking for an early-season mild upset, you could do much worse than taking the Knights over visiting N.C. State on Sept. 11. It has all the makings of a true toss-up game.

No. 59 TEMPLE

The Owls know exactly what they'll get from one backfield position and can't be too certain what they'll receive from another.

Temple went 9-4 and reached its first bowl game in 30 years last fall, and did so with a rotation of quarterbacks who weren't exactly superstars. Chester Stewart completed 40 percent of his passes and had three touchdowns and three interceptions. Vaughn Charlton checked in just north of 50 percent with 10 TDs and 11 interceptions.

Charlton, who started the EagleBank Bowl loss to UCLA and followed up a strong first half with a 1-for-7, 6-yard, two-interception performance after the break, is now at tight end. It would seem it is Stewart's job to lose.

Fortunately for him, he has sophomore Bernard Pierce to hand it off to much of the time. That strategy worked wonders for the Owls, who got 16 touchdowns from Pierce a season ago.

Pierce (along with three other stud rushers) cracked the top 20 all-time list of freshman runners last season. It's a list that has Hall of Famers, all-pros, Heisman winners and plenty of representation from Wisconsin. In short, it bodes well for Pierce's future --- not to mention the Owls' immediate prospects:

1,925: Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma, 2004

1,863: Ron Dayne, Wisconsin, 1996
1,801: Jamario Thomas, North Texas, 2004

1,799: Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh, 2009
1,732: Chance Kretschmer, Nevada, 2001

1,655: Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech, 2009
1,616: Herschel Walker, Georgia, 1980

1,586: Tony Dorsett, Pittsburgh, 1973
1,569: P.J. Hill, Wisconsin, 2006
1,546: LaMichael James, Oregon, 2009

1,475: Alex Smith, Indiana, 1994
1,474: Tyrell Fenroy, Louisiana-Lafayette, 2004
1,466: Anthony Davis, Wisconsin, 2001
1,455: Michael Hart, Michigan, 2004
1,429: Marshall Faulk, San Diego State, 1991

1,388: Damion Fletcher, Southern Mississippi, 2006
1,364: Jamal Lewis, Tennessee, 1997
1,361: Bernard Pierce, Temple, 2009
1,341: Emmitt Smith, Florida, 1987
1,334: Knowshon Moreno, Georgia, 2007

No. 58 OKLAHOMA STATE

Do. Not. Trust.

The Cowboys were a popular choice to be a top-10 party crasher, and then made naysayers (guilty as charged) look like idiots when they opened with a defeat of Georgia.

The Pokes promptly lost to Houston, later got hammered by Texas and Oklahoma and eventually lost the Cotton Bowl to another program that overhyped in the preseason (Mississippi).

There isn't that sort of spotlight on the Cowboys this year, especially since graduation gutted the program of most of its stars (as well as the offensive line, which per Phil Steele brings back just 12 career starts).

The Big 12 South is still tough, the Cowboys have to deal with Nebraska and chances are good Tulsa or Troy could poach an early-season win in Stillwater. A return to a regular season in the neighborhood of 6-6 is in order for T. Boone Pickens U.

No. 57 BAYLOR

Yet again, it's all about Robert Griffin in Waco.

The quarterback suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the third game last fall. The Bears were 2-1 with Griffin, 2-7 without him.

Some of that speaks to the difficulty of having to deal with Texas and Oklahoma and the rest of a loaded division. But the reality is, Griffin could be worth the two extra victories needed for Baylor to reach a bowl game for the first time since 1994.

Griffin will have as favorable a schedule as he'll find on deck, too. Baylor avoids Nebraska and Missouri from the North, gets three winnable nonconference games (plus a trip to Texas Christian) and plays what would have been a road game against Texas Tech at JerryWorld in Dallas.

Despite the back-to-back 4-8s, Baylor is on the cusp of becoming sort of relevant. The Bears will need Griffin to return to his 2008 form to make sure it happens this season.

No. 56 MISSISSIPPI STATE

The Dan Mullen era got off to a decent start, with a 45-point outburst in the opener and a 41-27 hammering of Mississippi in the Egg Bowl.

It was the first time the Bulldogs scored 40 points twice in a season since 2000. And it's going to be awful hard to replicate that feat this year,

The Bulldogs will break in a new quarterback and tailback, and the front four on defense is inexperienced as well. The talent level is improving in Starkville, but it could be a year of treading water.

The big reason for that? Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State and Arkansas are quite the imposing quartet, and Mississippi State also draws Florida and Georgia from the East Division. Fun times.

This could be a case where a team gets a little better and winds up with the same results as a year earlier. For the Bulldogs, that would be a 5-7 record.

The one bright side? Ole Miss probably won't be a nine-win outfit, so the chance for in-state supremacy --- and perhaps escaping the SEC West cellar --- very much exists.

College football countdown: Nos. 61-65

Halfway home in the countdown, and while it's still a while before the top 25, perhaps someone in this group could turn out to be an out-of-nowhere team.

If any do, it won't be hard to find some surprised people.

No. 65 KANSAS STATE

Whether the Wildcats are better than this or not, this much is certain: They'll know where they stand by mid-October.

A scheduling quirk gives them four home games and a neutral site date with Iowa State in Kansas City in their first five games. Then come five of seven on the road, with Texas rolling into Manhattan for one of the two home games in the second half of the season.

Yes, Kansas State was better last year, and Bill Snyder alone was probably worth a win. So, too, was playing a pair of teams from the former Division I-AA.

The Wildcats gets Big 12 North favorite Nebraska early in the season on a Thursday night. Whether questions at quarterback, in the front seven and concerning depth in general will not only dictate K-State's chances that night, but also all season.

No. 64 COLORADO

The Buffaloes probably wish they were playing intramurals rather than Big 12 football. If they were, "10 wins and no excuses" would have looked a lot more doable last season.

Instead, Colorado slipped from 5-7 to 3-9 during last fall's interminable slog.

The Buffaloes have endured four seasons with nine losses or more in their history. Two have come in Dan Hawkins' first four seasons.

In short, Colorado is heading to the Pac-10, presumably next year. Without a winning season, chances are remote Hawkins joins them in their new conference --- at the varsity level or piloting the intramurals program.

No. 63 AIR FORCE

All hail the surprisingly predictable Falcons.

Why say that? Well, they've been unsuccessful against Brigham Young, Texas Christian and Utah --- the Mountain West's flagship programs --- as well as Navy. And they've been pretty good against everyone else.

Here's how those records stack up since 2005:

Year	vs. BYU/TCU/Utah/Navy	vs. Everyone else
2005	0-4	4-3
2006	0-4	4-4
2007	2-2	7-2
2008	0-4	8-1
2009	0-4	8-1

That's a 2-18 mark against four schools, and 31-11 against everyone else.

Air Force has the task of visiting Oklahoma in September, so pencil in an extra loss there. So it's not too much of a stretch to anticipate a 7-5 season, with a bowl leaving the Falcons the opportunity to collect a fourth consecutive eight-win season under Troy Calhoun.

You heard it here first --- even if it simply is a mirror of what Air Force has consistently accomplished in the last five years.

No. 62 TULSA

The Golden Hurricane lost three games by a touchdown or less last fall, and collected only one victory by less than 17 points.

So, yes, they were 5-7. But they were a lot closer to extending their bowl streak to five years than bottoming out even further.

It's worth noting that dip occurred with an inexperienced offensive line that was reamed for 46 sacks in Tulsa's pass-happy system a year ago. There's a real chance that unit will be better --- and it will not just help improve quarterback G.J. Kinne, but also the prospects of a program that's grown accustomed to contending in Conference USA.

There's certainly a chance to grow. The Golden Hurricane doesn't have to deal with C-USA heavyweights Houston and Southern Mississippi until November. By then, it could be Tulsa rather than other preseason chic picks (Central Florida? Southern Methodist?) that emerges as the best chance to surprise the conference favorites.

No. 61 PURDUE

Red flag No. 1: The offensive line isn't particularly experienced.

Red flag No. 2: The secondary returns no starters.

Red flag No. 3: New quarterback Robert Marve's production at his last stop was spotty at best. The Miami transfer completed 54.5 percent of his passes and tossed nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions while splitting time with Jacory Harris as a redshirt freshman in 2008.

The Boilermakers took a step back to normal last year, finishing 4-4 in the Big Ten and 5-7 overall. The former isn't all that unusual; Purdue has finished within a game of .500 in the conference seven times in the nine seasons since Drew Brees departed West Lafayette.

Purdue could be in for a similarly pedestrian season this year. A 3-1 nonconference record isn't out of the question. The Boilermakers miss Iowa and Penn State and get highly winnable dates with Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota at home.

It could all add up to a 7-5 season and a trip to a lower-tier bowl. It's precisely the sort of season fans grew weary of in the latter portion of Joe Tiller's tenure, but it would still be a solid year for a team with no shortage of questions.

College football countdown: Nos. 66-70

After a couple days on the road, the countdown continues and nears the midpoint. ...

No. 70 NORTHERN ILLINOIS

The Huskies bring back the bulk of a really good defense, and that alone should put them in contention for the MAC West title.

But there's something else interesting here.

Northern Illinois has what might just be a dream schedule --- three highly winnable road games against power conference teams.

The Huskies visit Iowa State, Illinois and Minnesota, all before the end of September. Northern Illinois might not win all three, but it surely could poach a couple. And at that point, talk of the program's first 10-win season since Michael Turner was scampering all over DeKalb will begin.

Don't be surprised if that happens.

No. 69 ARIZONA STATE

Football mercenary Dennis Erickson had never endured consecutive losing seasons in the college game until last year.

Thanks to dates with Northern Arizona and Portland State, it'll be tough to get it to three.

But there is a ceiling for the Sun Devils, who are only going to get so far with the combination of lousy offense and imposing defense. This is especially true with trips to Wisconsin, Oregon State, Washington, Southern California and Arizona on tap.

Arizona State was a bit unfortunate the last two years, rolling up a 1-6 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less. At the same time, programs like Arizona, Stanford and (now) Washington have all improved substantially. A bowl berth is possible, but it seems highly unlikely the Sun Devils will crack the upper echelon of the Pac-10 this fall.

No. 68 MARYLAND

The Terrapins bottomed out last season, stumbling to a 2-10 record that featured a season-ending seven-game losing streak.

They also began the fourth quarter stuck in a one-possession game in nine of 12 games. Maryland was 2-7 in those affairs.

As tiresome as Ralph Friedgen's lamentations about luck were, Maryland wasn't quite as bad as its record. Granted, it was minus-6 in turnovers and outgained by nearly 80 yards a game. No one who consistently watched the Terps would dare deem them "good."

Nevertheless, there should be a regression (or is it progression?) to the mean of sorts, and that means the most likely outcome is a 4-8 or 5-7 season. If the offensive line --- last year's pronounced bugaboo --- develops, perhaps the upside is an anonymous trip to the EagleBank Bowl.

That in itself would raise another question: Is 6-6 enough for Friedgen to finish out his contract? With a new athletic director on the way thanks to Debbie Yow's departure to N.C. State, there's a previously unforeseen variable in figuring out just what route Maryland attempts to take from its worst football season in decades on its way back to respectability.

No. 67 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

The Blue Raiders won 10 games a season ago, and might be even better this season. It's only fair, then, to slot them ahead of a power conference school they've beaten two years running.

Sadly for the folks in Murfreesboro, the series with Maryland is complete. But Dwight Dasher remains under center after throwing for nearly 2,800 yards and rushing for more than 1,100 yards a season ago.

In both of Middle Tennessee's two bowl seasons under Rick Stockstill, it has lost just one Sun Belt game. Both setbacks came against Troy.

With the Trojans paying a midweek visit to the 'Boro, here's guessing the Blue Raiders finally get that elusive victory against the conference's top program and wind up atop the league. If that happens, bank on Stockstill being a coveted commodity when some mid-level openings surface at the end of next season.

No. 66 DUKE

On the surface, the Blue Devils' biggest concern would seem to be replacing Thaddeus Lewis, though Sean Renfree did get some experience as the backup to Duke's career passing leader.

In reality, Duke has another problem to deal with. I like to call it "November."

The Blue Devils have dropped 20 straight games after Halloween, including a ghoulish 0-9 mark under third-year coach David Cutcliffe. Blaming Cutcliffe for Duke's propensity for losing is unfair, especially since the Blue Devils have gotten off to 4-3 and 5-3 starts the last two years before collapsing. Still, there is a need to play well in the season's closing stages.

The opportunity to start fast exists again. Duke will probably get pulverized by Alabama, but Elon, Wake Forest, Army and Maryland all represent reasonably decent opportunities for victories before the bye week.

Duke still has to figure out its offensive and defensive lines, and Cutcliffe pointed those out (in addition to QB) as his team's biggest question marks in the spring. If some of those problems get solved, maybe the Blue Devils will beat Virginia or Boston College or even North Carolina in Durham during the season's final month.

Otherwise, Duke will simply extend its misery in November. The good news, though, is one of the three longest late-season skids will come to an end when Virginia visits Wallace Wade Stadium on Nov. 6.

LONGEST ACTIVE LOSING STREAKS, NOVEMBER/DECEMBER/JANUARY

20: Duke

13: New Mexico State

10: Virginia

9: Miami (Ohio)
9: Western Kentucky

8: Indiana

7: North Texas

5: Arizona State
5: Memphis
5: Michigan
5: Washington State

4: Eastern Michigan
4: Kansas
4: Maryland
4: Notre Dame
4: San Diego State

College football countdown: Nos. 71-75

Time to burn through a few more BCS near-cellar dwellers on today's installment of the countdown ...

75. LOUISIANA TECH

The Bulldogs hired Sonny Dykes, a protege of both Hal Mumme and Mike Leach, to take over their program after Derek Dooley received an unanticipated golden ticket and skedaddled to Tennessee.

With that in mind, let's take a peek at the work Mumme and Leach have done with offenses in their first season as head coach compared to their immediate predecessors:

Kentucky (Mumme)

1996: 12.5 ppg, 4-7 overall
1997: 31.6 ppg, 5-6 overall

Texas Tech (Leach)

1999: 23.0 ppg, 6-5 overall
2000: 27.5 ppg, 7-6 overall

New Mexico State (Mumme)

2004: 24.8 ppg, 5-6 overall
2005: 16.5 ppg, 0-12 overall

There's a mixed bag. So how about the difference Dykes made upon arriving as Arizona's offensive coordinator in 2007?

Arizona

2006: 16.8 ppg, 6-6 overall
2007: 28.0 pph, 5-7 overall

In three of the four scenarios, the record remained generally unchanged. And the assumption here is that will carry over to Dykes' debut in Ruston, where the Bulldogs might be better than last year's 4-8 --- but probably not by much.

74. SOUTHERN METHODIST

After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less in 2008, the Mustangs were due to improve last fall.

And so they did, leaping from 1-11 to 8-5 and a Hawaii Bowl rout of Nevada. Of course, Southern Methodist pulled that off by going 6-3 in games determined by eight points or less.

Theoretically, there should be another evening out effect. But that could be canceled out by yet another year for the Mustangs offense to soak in the teachings of coach June Jones.

Not long ago --- read: 2007 --- envisioning a middle-of-the-pack national ranking for SMU wouldn't have made much sense. Yet at this stage, it's a given the Mustangs will at least have the offense to make things interesting.

This could very easily be a team that is better than its predecessor but winds up with a similar result. Chances are, SMU fans wouldn't complain about a second straight bowl berth after a quarter-century sojourn through death penalty-induced gridiron wilderness.

73. IOWA STATE

Few teams nationally are in for a statistical comeuppance quite like the Cyclones are this fall.

First of all, a rundown of teams that reached bowl games last season despite getting outgained by 20 or more yards per game:

83.9: Wyoming (7-6)

62.8: Minnesota (6-7)

51.2: Iowa State (7-6)

38.4: Ohio (6-7)

28.2: Kentucky (7-6)
23.1: Louisiana State (9-4)
22.7: Marshall (6-7)

But that's just the start of matters.

The Cyclones swap out Army, Kent State and North Dakota State for Utah, Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa. Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M --- arguably the bottom three teams in the Big 12 South, though A&M might be the division's No. 3 team --- rotate off the schedule. Hello, Oklahoma and Texas.

Year One was unexpectedly enjoyable for Paul Rhoads and his staff. Chances are, this fall won't be nearly so fun.

72. KENTUCKY

High on the list of things that rarely go well together: First-time head coaches at the college or pro level and the SEC. That's a combination the Wildcats will trot out this fall with Joker Phillips, who at least knew this day was coming sooner or later thanks to his head-coach-in-waiting designation the last few years.

Since 1980, there have been 18 other men get their first head coaching gig in the SEC. It worked out extremely well for Phil Fulmer and Mark Richt, fairly well for back-to-back Ole Miss hires Tommy Tuberville and David Cutcliffe, and decent enough (pre-violations, anyway) for Galen Hall.

The other 13 guys? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but only Gerry DiNardo, Guy Morriss and Ron Zook ever got another major head coaching job.

The rest of this motley contingent: Jerry Stovall, Rockey Felker, Mike Archer, Ray Goff, Brad Scott, Mike DuBose, Mike Shula, Sylvester Croom and Ed Orgeron. Admittedly, the jury remains out on Dan Mullen.

The odds are stacked against a first-time head coach in America's toughest conference. Inheriting a team that struggles to stop the run isn't a good sign Phillips' first impression will be a good one. Perhaps the Wildcats continue to exploit a soft nonconference schedule --- they're 15-1 outside the SEC in the regular season since 2006. If not, a bowl bid is unlikely.

71. WAKE FOREST

It's a testament to Jim Grobe's superb coaching that it took 15 years as a head coach to endure his first in-season five-game skid.

But that skid forces a question or two --- namely, how much better will things be now that Riley Skinner's career is over.

An equally significant concern is the turnover issue. Wake was plus-39 en route to three straight postseason appearances, a simply unsustainable takeaway/giveaway margin. Last year, the Demon Deacons --- already smarting from the loss of Aaron Curry and Alphonso Smith --- were minus-4 and left an inexperienced defense on the field longer than it could afford. Hence, a 5-7 season.

That group should be a bit better, but Skinner's replacement will be on the spot to make sure the offense doesn't decline too much. Please note the use of "too much;" no one should anticipate the Demon Deacons throwing with remotely the effectiveness Skinner did as a senior.

A gunslinger would be nice, but an effective offensive caretaker would probably be enough to get Wake back to its typically overachieving ways under Grobe. After losing twice in overtime and five losses by a combined 13 points, the breaks might be do to swing back toward the Demon Deacons this fall.

College football countdown: Nos. 76-80

As promised, an ACC team today.

And a Big East team.

And a Big Ten team.

Meanwhile, the countdown is almost out of Sun Belt teams.

Moving ahead with things ...

80. CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Quarterback Dan LeFevour threw for 12,905 yards in four seasons as the Chippewas' starters --- nearly twice as many as the next closest passer in school history .

He won't be the only guy departing after Central Michigan's fourth straight bowl appearance, but he's easily the most notable. The MAC isn't necessarily the most difficult league, but the Chippewas will certainly have less margin for error than in the past.

As for how programs replace a career passing leader, here's a glance at how it's worked out for schools coming off 10-win seasons since 2000 (includes, school, record and former QB). The Chippewas were 12-2 last season:

2000: Marshall, 8-5 (Chad Pennington)

2001: Boise State, 8-4 (Bart Hendricks)
2001: Florida State, 8-4 (Chris Weinke)
2001: Oklahoma, 11-2 (Josh Heupel)

2002: Texas, 11-2 (Major Applewhite)

2003: Miami, 11-2 (Ken Dorsey)
2003: Southern California, 12-1 (Carson Palmer)
2003: Washington State, 10-3 (Jason Gesser)

2004: Boise State, 11-1 (Ryan Dinwiddie)
2004: Miami (Ohio), 8-5 (Ben Roethlisberger)
2004: Mississippi, 4-7 (Eli Manning)

2005: Georgia, 10-3 (David Greene)
2005: Oklahoma, 8-5 (Jason White)
2005: Virginia Tech, 11-2 (Bryan Randall)

2006: Alabama, 6-7 (Brodie Croyle)

2007: Florida, 9-4 (Chris Leak)
2007: Houston, 8-5 (Kevin Kolb)
2007: Notre Dame, 3-9 (Brady Quinn)

2008: Tulsa, 11-3 (Paul Smith)

2009: Alabama, 14-0 (John Parker Wilson)
2009: Ball State, 2-10 (Nate Davis)
2009: Missouri, 8-5 (Chase Daniel)
2009: Rice, 2-10 (Chase Clement)
2009: Texas Tech, 9-4 (Graham Harrell)

The 2010 group also includes Texas (Colt McCoy).

Overall, 24 teams have faced the same predicament as Central Michigan does this year. Ten went ahead and won 10 games again. Half as many had losing records. Ball State and Rice might have stumbled last year, but here's guessing the Chippewas enjoy a plenty respectable fall in 2010.

79. TROY

The Trojans lost a bunch on offense, and even more on defense.

That's OK --- sort of --- since Troy did all sorts of wonderful things through the air when on offense and pretty much nothing good defending the pass while on defense last year.

This is a particularly consistent team, rolling up eight-win seasons in four straight years. The Trojans are also 18-2 at home in that stretch.

Alas, Troy doesn't get Sun Belt favorite Middle Tennessee on its own field. That's why the Trojans land behind the Blue Raiders --- but be assured these are the two best teams in the conference by quite a bit.

78. VIRGINIA

Historically speaking, few things are as doomed as a Virginia football coach's first season.

Back in 1929, Earl Abell's first bunch of Cavaliers got off to a 4-1 start, a stretch capped Oct. 26 with a 32-7 rout of St. John's.

Three days later, the stock market crashed. And while that has absolutely nothing to do with the historical arc of Virginia football, it's still fun to point out the Cavaliers stumbled to an 0-2-2 finish that season after Wall Street collapsed and no first-year coaching has enjoyed a winning record since then.

You can look it up:

1931: Fred Dawson, 1-7-2
1934: Gus Tebell, 3-6
1937: Frank Murray, 2-7
1946: Art Guepe, 4-4-1
1953: Ned McDonald, 1-8
1956: Ben Martin, 4-6
1958: Richard Voris, 1-9
1961: Bill Elias, 4-6
1965: George Blackburn, 5-5
1971: Don Lawrence, 3-8
1974: Sonny Randle, 4-7
1976: Dick Bestwick, 2-9
1982: George Welsh, 2-9
2001: Al Groh, 5-7

This is not to say Mike London won't eventually be successful. It's not even to suggest the Cavaliers won't improve from last year's miserable 3-9 experience; Lord Groh left the defense stocked well enough with decent players and the Hoos get a pair of teams from the former Division I-AA plus Eastern Michigan and Maryland --- all in Charlottesville.

But the final year of the Marc Verica Experience (and whatever the heck else Virginia cobbles together on offense) won't be especially easy, and a winning record would be a monumental achievement. Expect London to join his 14 immediate predecessors in not enjoying a particularly successful debut season.

77. SYRACUSE

In the not-too-recent past, the Orange were doomed before they even took the field simply because of the man donning the head coach's headset each game.

Handed a real coach (albeit one with a team filled with his predecessor's players) last year, Syracuse improved to 4-8, and if only for a little luck against Minnesota and Louisville could have slipped into the the International Bowl.

Alas, a caravan of Orange fans --- no doubt bored with Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph toying with the likes of St. Bonaventure or Canisius during the holiday season --- will not be getting their passports in order for an early-winter trek across the border. And not just because the International Bowl no longer exists.

Thanks to some late scheduling juggling --- Virginia Tech vanished, replaced (eventually) by Colgate --- Syracuse was left with a pair of opponents from the former Division I-AA. The only other BCS conference schools in the same boat are Arizona State and Virginia. As a result, Syracuse must win seven games to become bowl eligible (assuming the Orange sweeps Maine and Colgate).

It's not that different a situation; Syracuse wasn't beating Virginia Tech, anyway. But a leap of three victories is still quite a bit for a rebuilding team, which remains a year away from pushing its way into the middle of the Big East.

76. INDIANA

The message for Hoosiers football fans, as usual, is get ready for noon kickoffs. Unsurprisingly, Indiana will almost surely continue to be a staple of the Big Ten Network's early games.

The good thing for the Hoosiers is about as favorable a nonconference schedule as anyone could cobble together. Indiana gets Towson, a pair of Sun Belt teams (Arkansas State and Western Kentucky) and Akron, and harbors a serious chance of running the table outside the league.

Sadly, the Hoosiers miss Minnesota this season and must travel to Illinois and Purdue. They'll play Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State in succession in the second half of the season (the latter in a "home" game in Landover, Md.) before wrapping up against Purdue.

Indiana gave up 34.2 points a game to those five to close out last year, and the Hoosiers' defense probably won't be much better this time around. If Indiana is to return to the postseason after a two-year hiatus, it'll be on quarterback Ben Chappell and a solid group of receivers to pull it off.

College football countdown: Nos. 81-85

The first third of the countdown wraps up with this installment.

Not a single ACC team lands in that stretch. But don't worry. That will be rectified soon enough.

For now, here's five more teams you might not hear a whole lot about once November and December come around:

85. MINNESOTA

Yes, the Golden Gophers were a bowl team last season. I was an employed sportswriter last season. Lot of good that does now.

Minnesota was decidedly average on defense last year, hardly great but good enough to avoid getting humiliated in every situation other than a visit to the Horseshoe. Hey, that happens. But the front seven is gone, and there's little reason to think the Gophers will magically become a great defense by getting younger.

And about the offense? Well, nine starters are back. But the Gophers couldn't run (less than a 100 yards a game on the ground), couldn't score (less than 20 points in five of their last seven games) and simply weren't very impressive.

Minnesota also misses Indiana and Michigan, so the schedule isn't particularly favorable. The Gophers also open on a Thursday night (Sept. 2) at Middle Tennessee, which means they could be the first team whose season comes unraveled. If things get too ugly, Tim Brewster's fourth season could be his last.

84. WYOMING

The power of turnovers is an amazing thing.

In 2008, the Cowboys were a ghastly -22 in turnover margin, averaged an anemic 296 yards a game and managed to get not only coach Joe Glenn fired, but to punctuate Phil Fulmer's downfall at Tennessee with a 13-7 victory in Knoxville.

Last year, Wyoming was +8 in turnover margin, averaged an almost-as-anemic 309.4 yards of total offense and earned its first bowl berth in five years.

Much of last year's bunch is back, but the Cowboys are staring at an unpleasant schedule. They play Texas and Boise State in the season's first three weeks, and pay visits to Texas Christian and Brigham Young in October. This could be one beat-up outfit by the time it has to engage the bottom half of the Mountain West. Matching last year's 6-6 regular-season record would be impressive.

83. EAST CAROLINA

One of the great wild cards this season, the Pirates were wiped out by graduation and the loss of coach Skip Holtz to South Florida. Into the breach steps Ruffin McNeill, who was last seen figuratively wearing Mike Leach's headset as Texas Tech won the Alamo Bowl.

This is a fairly optimistic assessment compared to several preseason magazines, and even then it comes with some caveats.

The Pirates won't be as good on defense as they were a season ago, and a so-so offense will struggle now that Patrick Pinkney is gone after what felt like an eight-year career. One possible replacement: Dominique Davis, best known for helping Boston College clinch an Atlantic Division title with a defeat of Maryland in the 2008 regular season finale.

Few teams will face as crucial a stretch as the Pirates will in the season's first month. Trips to Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Southern Mississippi are lined up in a row, and East Carolina then gets N.C. State in Greenville. A fifth straight bowl berth isn't impossible, but a third consecutive conference title is unlikely.

82. LOUISVILLE

Perhaps no major program needed a fresh start like the Cardinals, who rapidly plummeted from Big East champions to so-so to irrelevant in three years under Steve Kragthorpe. The evidence: Kragthorpe won five conference games, or one less than Bobby Petrino did in 2006 before an ill-fated move to the Atlanta Falcons.

Enter Charlie Strong, who at least will enjoy a little bit of a cushion to sort stuff out. The former Florida defensive coordinator finally gets his first head-coaching gig, and all is not bad.

The offensive line returns intact. The Cardinals get seven home games, including four in the Big East. The conference doesn't have an obvious dominant power, either this year or in the long run.

The defense, unquestionably, needs help, but that's Strong's specialty. Louisville probably won't be great this season, but things are just favorable enough for a bowl berth to be possible. If nothing else, the Cardinals should show some modest improvement --- and that should be enough for a fanbase numb to the steady decline of the last three seasons.

81. ILLINOIS

Sometimes, a team will receive a bump in any sort of ranking like this based on coaching alone.

That doesn't just go for the Jim Tressels and the Nick Sabans of the world. Chances are a team coached by Mike Riley or Brian Kelly or Jim Grobe will probably wind up outperforming expectations. Not always, of course, but it happens enough that folks should be smart enough to account for that consistently strong play.

It works in the other direction, too --- and that's where the Illini come in.

To be blunt, Ron Zook has done little to generate much faith in his sideline acumen, though his 6-9 record at Illinois in games decided by a touchdown or less isn't as bad as some might think.

Still, Zook has drawn raves as a recruiter and has a 21-39 record in five seasons in Champaign to show for it. He's 7-17 on the road and 0-5 on neutral fields. But perhaps most damning is this little gem:

BIG TEN STANDINGS, 2005-09

1. Ohio State (36-4, .900)
2. Penn State (29-11, .725)
3. Wisconsin (25-15, .625)
4. Iowa (22-18, .550)
5. Michigan (21-19, .525)
6. Northwestern (20-20, .500)
7. Purdue (17-23, .425)
8. Michigan State (16-24, .400)
9. Minnesota (13-27, .325)
10. Illinois (12-28, .300)
11. Indiana (9-31, .225)

Zook isn't the only coach who should fidget nervously because of these numbers (ahem, Rich Rodriguez), but he's presided over all five of these seasons and comes out behind everyone except Indiana. Which is to say he's behind everyone in the Big Ten that consistently makes football a priority.

Expectations aren't particularly high this fall, though the Illini catch a break by avoiding Iowa and Wisconsin and getting winnable games against Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue at home. A bowl berth is attainable, and it might just keep the Zooker around for an extra year. But another sub-.500 season from the Illini would make dismissing Zook one of the most justifiable coaching changes of 2010.

College football countdown: Nos. 86-90

Five more teams to ponder on the first day of summer ...

90. TEXAS-EL PASO

Sometimes, problems are incredibly easy to identify.

Take the Miners, who have been absolutely horrendous in one particular area for three years running:

Season	Rush Defense	Rank
2007	202.9	104
2008	199.5	104
2009	200.8	106

Give coach Mike Price credit. UTEP has its third defensive coordinator in four years and scrapped a 3-3-5 system for a 4-3. The nonconference schedule swaps out Texas, Kansas and Buffalo for Houston, Memphis and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

The path to six victories is eminently more reachable. But the Miners are going to have to hold someone in check --- especially on the ground --- to make that happen.

89. OHIO

The Bobcats return just half their starters from a 9-5 team that is due for a bit of a decline anyway after posting a plus-13 turnover margin a season ago (seventh in the country).

But if you're looking for a wild prediction, how about this: The Bobcats will give Ohio State a headache on Oct. 18.

That's not to say the Bobcats will win. But take a look at this recent history against power conference teams:

2007: Virginia Tech 28, Ohio 7
2008: Ohio State 26, Ohio 14
2008: Northwestern 16, Ohio 8
2009: Connecticut 23, Ohio 16
2009: Tennessee 34, Ohio 23

Needless to say, the Bobcats are a pest. And if they give Ohio State a hard time this year, maybe Tom Osborne can call his old assistant Frank Solich up for advice on how to deal with Big Ten teams.

88. SAN DIEGO STATE

The Aztecs are probably the most inexplicable of the 10 teams with the longest bowl droughts in major college football (UL Monroe, which moved up in 1994, has not played in a bowl).

School	Last bowl
New Mexico St.	1960
UL Lafayette	1970
Kent State	1972
Eastern Michigan	1987
Baylor	1994
Duke	1994
Army	1996
Utah State	1997
San Diego State	1998
UNLV	2000

So, does San Diego State put an end to the dry spell this year? Possibly.

The Aztecs play Nicholls State, New Mexico State and Utah State in nonconference games, and all are winnable. The bottom half of the Mountain West isn't particularly imposing, and Air Force --- the middle tier of the league pretty much by itself --- pays a visit to San Diego.

It won't matter if the Aztecs can't hold onto the ball (minus-10 turnover margin last year) or establish even a modest running game (held to less 80 yards a game in each of the last two years). As difficult as it is to believe a school nestled in southern California is so far removed from its last postseason appearance, it is easy to figure out what needs to be fixed from the last couple seasons.

87. VANDERBILT

There's no better way to sum up the Commodores than this simple record: 2-6.

Somehow, Vanderbilt held eight opponents to 25 points or less, and couldn't come close to winning half of those games.

Certainly, the Commodores could be better against the run, and returning only a couple starters on the front seven won't help that.

But the greater issue here is an offense that simply hasn't been any good at all the last couple seasons.

Vanderbilt somehow overcame that in 2008 and reached a bowl game. Last year, reality set in and the Commodores crashed to 2-10.

Things should be better this year, but maybe not by much. Over the last two years, Vanderbilt has lost games by margins of 17-14, 10-7, 20-10, 15-3, 16-13 and 14-10. If the defense regresses at all, things could get ugly in Nashville once conference play begins in earnest.

86. ARMY

A bowl berth for the Black Knights? Don't laugh. Rich Ellerson found a way to get a team that barely averaged 15 points within a game of a bowl berth.

Only four bowl teams from a year ago (Temple, Rutgers, Air Force, Navy) dot Army's schedule, and assuming sophomore quarterback Trent Steelman continues to mature in Ellerson's option scheme, there could be enough to reach the postseason.

The linchpin could wind up being the service academy games, a severe aggravation for Black Knights fans in recent years. Army, after all, has dropped nine straight, 15 of 16 and 20 of 22 to its fellow academies.

And that makes the Aughts (2-18) a decidedly lousy time to be a fan on the banks of the Hudson:

ARMY'S LONGEST LOSING STREAKS vs. SERVICE ACADEMIES

9: 2005-present (Navy 5, Air Force 4)

6: 2002-04 (Air Force 3, Navy 3)

5: 1939-43 (Navy 5)
5: 1999-2001 (Air Force 3, Navy 2)

If beating Air Force or Navy turns out to be the difference in going to a bowl for the first time since 1996, that elusive victory will somehow be even sweeter than anticipated for the Black Knights.

College football countdown: Nos. 91-95

There's no BCS conference schools in today's installment, but fret not --- more will be on the way soon enough.

No. 95 WESTERN MICHIGAN

Current members of the MAC to play Notre Dame in the last 90 seasons: None.

So Western Michigan's trip to South Bend on Oct. 16?  As Joe Biden might say, it's a big $%#@ing deal.

The Broncos, it turns out, were blanked by a combined score of 94-0 in visits to Notre Dame in 1919 and 1920. The quarterback on those Irish teams? George Gipp. Yep, it's been a while.

In any case, Western Michigan figures to struggle in this and several other games this season. It couldn't run effectively last season, nor could it efficiently stop anyone on the ground or in the air. The Broncos were 5-7 last year, and a similar result this year would come as no surprise.

No. 94 HAWAII

The Warriors already got a victory of sorts more than two months before the season started. Part of the NCAA penalties for Southern California --- scheduled to visit Hawaii on Sept. 2 --- was to take away the possibility of playing a 13th regular-season game the next two years. The NCAA graciously delayed that sanction by a year, permitting Hawaii to not lose its season opener.

Well, not to lose the revenue from its season opener.

Given the relatively mediocre results of the last couple seasons, it's certainly difficult to believe this program had everything come together brilliantly just three years ago. After going 23-4 with June Jones coaching a Colt Brennan-led offense, the Warriors are 12-13 and will try to maintain their prolific offense with a rebuilt offensive line.

Hawaii certainly isn't in Boise State's class, so that means the best-case scenario is to scramble for seven wins and await the arrival of a Conference USA team on Christmas Eve in Honolulu. A visit from Marshall or UTEP wouldn't be quite as exciting as Santa, but it would mean the Warriors got back to a bowl game after a one-year hiatus. It's possible, but no sure thing.

No. 93 MARSHALL

The Thundering Herd reached their first bowl since 2004 and won their first postseason game since 2002 last season.

They still opted to fire former coach Mark Snyder, replacing him with West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday.

Both were telling developments. Marshall isn't quite as bad as it was while stumbling through four straight losing seasons under Snyder. But the Herd isn't quite around the corner, either, regardless of a bowl victory over Ohio to close out last season.

Marshall's offense remains questionable, while its defense is certainly solid by Conference USA standards. If the Herd gets decent play at quarterback (either from incumbent Brian Anderson or Clemson transfer Willy Korn), they could easily outpace this ranking.

No. 92 UTAH STATE

Meet this year's Idaho. Unlike many seasons, that's meant as a compliment.

The Aggies showed progress last season, winning four games for the first time since 2002. The next stop could be the program's first winning season in 14 years.

There's some interesting pieces here, notably 17 starters returning from a team that played fairly well in the second half of last season.

The Aggies' offense was solid while its defense was porous in 2009. That's not unusual for the WAC, though, and it would come as no surprise if things improved just enough for Utah State to earn a postseason invitation for the first time since the John L. Smith days.

No. 91 COLORADO STATE

Proof that a veteran offensive line doesn't always mean anything, the Rams brought back as much experience up front as anyone last season and wound up 3-9. Maybe the return of one starter on the line won't mean that much.

What's interesting about the Rams is they were good at very little, but not particularly atrocious at much, either. Colorado State ranked in the top 50 nationally in one of 17 categories (kickoff returns), but in the bottom 20 of 120 in just one area (net punting).

There were three losses by two points or less, but also a 24-23 escape against Weber State. The Rams won their first three and then lost nine straight to finish the season. It's sort of a team that defies a consistent storyline for the season.

There's a very real chance Colorado State winds up with a true freshman (Pete Thomas) or a redshirt freshman (Nico Ranieri) at quarterback. Combine that with a schedule featuring one nonconference home game, and there might not be a whole lot of tangible progress this fall.

College football countdown: Nos. 96-100

It's still a little ways from getting into a steady stream of bowl contenders.

But today, there's at least the first (or last, depending on the viewpoint) of the power conference teams. That's always a solid milestone on the countdown.

Moving along ...

100. WASHINGTON STATE

Sometimes, a program finds itself in a hole.

Wazzu is more accurately in the bottom of a canyon.

These are the sorts of national rankings that are difficult to believe, and yet they are true about the first two years of the Paul Wulff era:

CRYING WULFF

Category	2008	2009
Total offense	118th	119th
Rushing offense	110th	118th
Passing offense	106th	100th
Scoring offense	118th	119th
Total defense	108th	120th
Rushing defense	119th	117th
Passing defense	44th	115th
Scoring defense	118th	118th
Turnover margin	119th	103rd

The Cougars finished last in the Pac-10 in 15 of the 17 major categories tracked by the NCAA, winding up eighth in net punting and ninth in tackles for loss. Wazzu got plenty of practice at trying to do both.

The bottoming out simply had to have occurred. But even if things are a little bit better, it won't be a whole lot of fun to be a Washington State fan. The Cougars, who were outscored 357-80 in nine conference games last year, are a long way from being competitive.

99. BOWLING GREEN

It has all the hallmarks of a rebuilding year at Ye Olde Off-Ramp U., where only one quarterback has any sort of game experience --- and that is all of 13 passing attempts and 52 yards for sophomore Aaron Pankratz.

This could prove a very generous placement, and is perhaps a placement of faith in coach Dave Clawson, who did well to build a lower-division powerhouse at Richmond. It's also a nod to the Falcons' ability to overcome a 1-4 start last year and land a berth in the Humanitarian Bowl.

This season's start could be just as ugly. Four of Bowling Green's first seven opponents played in bowls last year, and that group doesn't include Michigan. Expect a late-blooming team, so long as the Falcons aren't flat-out trampled in the season's first month.

98. ARKANSAS STATE

The Red Wolves certainly won't definitely answer the question of whether experience at skill positions or on the line have a greater influence on a team's success. No single team can do that.

Still, it'll be curious to see how a team that brings back all of its offensive line starters and none of its starters at quarterback, running back and wide receiver fare.

The educated guess is it won't matter when the Red Wolves get demolished at Auburn to open the season.

Nonetheless, Arkansas State also brings back the key components of a decent defense (30th nationally against the run, 41st nationally in total yardage). Don't count on the Red Wolves beating either Troy or Middle Tennessee, but six victories and the possibility of vulturing a bowl berth for the first time in five years isn't out of the question.

97. KENT STATE

Given that the Golden Flashes haven't played in a bowl game since 1972, it feels odd to suggest they're getting overlooked.

Of course they're getting overlooked. Kent State has had two winning seasons since 1978 (a 7-4 record in 1987 and a 6-5 mark in 2001). For a few years there, the Golden Flashes were most often mentioned at the pro level when discussing a former Kent State basketball player (Antonio Gates); James Harrison and Joshua Cribbs, a pair of veterans of the Dix Stadium experience, have changed that a bit of late.

The Golden Flashes progressed from 3-9 to 4-8 to 5-7, and have the bulk of their starting lineup from a year ago returning. Also back is sixth-year tailback Eugene Jarvis, a mainstay who missed last season with a lacerated kidney.

There will never be a better chance for Kent State to finally punch through and head to the postseason. Early dates with Boston College and Penn State won't be fun, but the Golden Flashes will leave Ohio just once after the start of October (a Nov. 20 visit to Western Michigan). Things set up well for a bit of a surprise.

96. IDAHO

It was tough to find a better feel-good story than the Vandals, who had won nine games between 2005 and 2008 before a breakthrough 8-5 season a year ago. They won on the Smurf Turf (albeit in the Humanitarian Bowl and not against Boise State), and produced a potent offense despite a dreadful minus-8 turnover margin.

They also went 5-1 in games decided by four points or less. Despite the giveaways, this was a fairly fortunate team.

Idaho will probably try to go with the great offense/leaky defense formula again this year. Two things could change that philosophy.

First, pretty much everyone is back on defense --- not necessarily heartwarming for a team that gave up 48.7 points a game in its final six outings. Second, four starters were lost from the line that spurred the No. 9 total offense in the country.

The hit to the offense could be greater than any improvement on defense. Idaho probably won't roll up as nice a record as last year, but there's still a chance it could contend for a second straight postseason appearance.