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College football countdown: Nos. 101-105

Getting tired of MAC and Sun Belt teams on the countdown? After all, they've accounted for nine of the first 15 teams in this year's reverse rundown of major college football.

Well, there's more of both leagues in today's installment. But first up is a representative from another conference. ...

105. UAB

Fourth-year coach Neil Callaway probably dreams of fielding even an adequate defense in Birmingham. The Blazers' total defense rankings from the last three years:

2007: 114th
2008: 106th
2009: 114th

In 36 games in that span, the Blazers have held precisely five opponents to less than 21 points --- Alcorn State (2007), Alabama State, East Carolina and Central Florida (2008), and Southern Mississippi (2009).

It's not exactly a great track record. But considering UAB was 5-7 last with that terrible defense (one that nonetheless helped produce a plus-9 turnover margin no one should expect anyone to be able to replicate), the Blazers could slip into one of Conference USA's bowl slots if things break right.

One thing that must happen: A pass defense that gave up more than 300 yards a game must substantially improve.

104. BUFFALO

Just as its always fun to see what happens when a promising quarterback who got little more than garbage time work for a few years finally gets his turn (here's looking at you, John Brantley), it's also interesting to find out just how good a veteran assistant under an ultra-successful head coach really is.

Sometimes you get Lloyd Carr and things get even better. And sometimes you wind up with Ron Zook and ... well, you know how that story has gone.

Buffalo predictably lost Turner Gill, who bolted western New York for Kansas a year after winning a MAC title at a school not long removed from being a complete doormat. Enter Jeff Quinn, a long-time assistant under Brian Kelly at three different stops.

It's unfair to consider one year a referendum on Quinn's abilities; after all, he's installing  a spread-option offense to a team that lost most of its starters at the skill positions (not to mention the defensive front seven). But the Bulls can still be competitive in the muddled MAC --- especially if Quinn is anywhere near as good a coach as his old boss.

103. FLORIDA ATLANTIC

It's been a pretty good first decade of football for the Owls, who enter their 10th season of existence.

It took three years to reach the Division I-AA playoffs, five years to make it to Division I-A and seven years to win a bowl game.

But here's the rub for 2010: The Owls bring back zero offensive line starters.

It's difficult to imagine Florida Atlantic maintaining an offense anywhere near as good as the one that rolled up 432 yards a game last season. And considering the defense wasn't particularly stingy, it would take a remarkable degree of optimism to consider the Owls one of the favorites in the Sun Belt this fall.

102. TOLEDO

Nothing like dusting off an old chart for repeat use.

Thanks to Toledo's habit of knocking off a notable name every year, it is possible.

CONSECUTIVE YEARS WITH A VICTORY OVER A BCS SCHOOL, NON-BCS TEAMS

8: Texas Christian (Northwestern 2002, Vanderbilt 2003, Arizona 2003, Northwestern 2004, Oklahoma 2005, Iowa State* 2005, Baylor 2006, Texas Tech 2006, Baylor 2007, Stanford 2007, Stanford 2008, Virginia 2009, Clemson 2009)

7: Navy (Vanderbilt 2003, Duke 2004, Vanderbilt 2004, Rutgers 2004, Duke 2005, Stanford 2006, Connecticut 2006, Duke 2006, Duke 2007, Pittsburgh 2007, Notre Dame 2007, Rutgers 2008, Wake Forest 2008, Wake Forest 2009, Notre Dame 2009, Missouri* 2009)

4: Brigham Young (Oregon 2006*, Arizona 2007, UCLA 2007*, Washington 2008, UCLA 2008, Oklahoma 2009, Oregon State 2009*)
4: Hawaii (Purdue 2006, Arizona State 2006*, Washington 2007, Washington State 2008, Washington State 2009)
4: Toledo (Kansas 2006, Iowa State 2007, Michigan 2008, Colorado 2009)

3: Fresno State (Kansas State 2007, Georgia Tech 2007*, Rutgers 2008, UCLA 2008, Illinois 2009)
3: Utah (UCLA 2007, Louisville 2007, Michigan 2008, Oregon State 2008, Alabama 2008*, Louisville 2009, California 2009*)

*-bowl game

Of course, the Rockets haven't had a winning season in that stretch, either.

So look out Arizona (Sept. 3) or maybe Purdue (Sept. 25). Toledo will probably win one of those. Just don't count on the Rockets being a .500 outfit the rest of the time, especially with a shaky defense.

101. UNLV

The Rebels hired Bobby Hauck, the greatest scourge to student newspapers the Big Sky Conference ever produced. You've been warned, Rebel Yell.

Hauck, though, has much bigger problems than whatever a bunch of meddling kids (and, perhaps, their dog).

UNLV ranked 115th in total defense a year ago. It also has the misfortune of playing Wisconsin, Utah, West Virginia, Texas Christian and Brigham Young --- all in the first nine games.

Ruh-roh.

Hauck lost 17 games in eight years at Montana. The over/under for setbacks this year might just be exactly half of that: 8.5. If the Rebels replicate last year's 5-7 record, their new coach will receive enough praise to ensure any sort of ban on student media is unnecessary.

College football countdown: Nos. 106-110

The triple-digit brigade will be over soon enough. For now, here's five more teams

110. AKRON

The bad news for Akron is it plays three power conference teams before September is out.

The good news for the Zips is those three games are against Syracuse, Kentucky and Indiana --- and it's especially good news that it's football and not basketball Akron is facing those teams in.

With Kentucky likely a wee bit down and Syracuse and Indiana, well, Syracuse and Indiana, the Zips have a chance to pull off a surprise or two early in the season. But that's going to depend heavily on the improvement of a front seven that managed all of 11 sacks while yielding more than 170 yards rushing a game last year.

It really can be a simple game sometimes. If Akron can actually put up a decent performance up front on both sides, it has a prayer to be competitive in the MAC. If not, new coach Rob Ianello's first season could easily end up like J.D. Brookhart's last --- 3-9 and not especially enjoyable.

109. LOUISIANA-MONROE

The truth is, a program without a winning season in 16 years at college football's top level isn't particularly interesting on its own all that much.

The Warhawks do have a solid tailback in their employ in Frank Goodin, who ran for 1,126 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. But perhaps more fascinating was their choice in a new coach to replace Charlie Weatherbie of Navy fame.

That would be Todd Berry, formerly of Army --- where he had virtually no success at all.  He did, however, go 1-0 against Weatherbie and 2-1 against Navy.

That's about all he did, which is how he landed on the list of current major college coaches who got their current jobs despite career losing records:

.102: Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe (5-42 at Army)

.208: Gene Chizik, Auburn (5-19 at Iowa State)
.242: Bill Stewart, West Virginia (8-25 at VMI)

.364: Gary Andersen, Utah State (4-7 at Southern Utah)
.364: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (12-21 at Maine)
.364: Mike Riley, Oregon State (8-14 at Oregon State, Part I)

.400: Turner Gill, Kansas (20-30 at Buffalo)
.459: Derek Dooley, Tennessee (17-20 at Louisiana Tech)
.472: Brady Hoke, San Diego State (34-38 at Ball State)

108. RICE

No team strikes fear into my heart as a predictor than the Owls.

In 2007, coming off a 7-6 season season, I had Rice closer to sixth among Conference USA teams than last. The Owls promptly went 3-9 (with a midpack 3-5 showing in the league).

In 2008, I sized up a dreadful defense that yielded more than 500 yards a game, concluded Rice's additional experience didn't mean a whole lot and picked it 103rd in the country. The Owls went 10-3.

A year ago, thoroughly chastened but aware Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard were gone, I pegged the Owls for 86th and declared them a bowl possibility. At 2-10, they most certainly were not.

So now I see a team bringing back 19 starters, and will fall back in that 2008 trap. The difference here is Rice returns most of the components of an underwhelming team on both sides of the ball, not just defense. So the prediction is more struggles; considering I can't ever figure the Owls out, go ahead and pencil them in for 7-5.

107. MEMPHIS

The Tigers very much earned their 2-10 record a season ago, absorbing all but one of their losses by 10 points or more. It had more than a little to do with a defense that yielded 30 or more points in six straight games.

As for their offense, the most notable thing here is a former ACC quarterback (Cannon Smith, by way of Miami) and a former ACC commit (Tyler Bass, who didn't like the idea of grayshirting at Maryland and landed in Conference USA) competing for a starting job. It's a small world, indeed.

New coach Larry Porter opens up with a September stretch featuring four games that could go either way --- trips to Mississippi State, East Carolina and UTEP, with a home date against Middle Tennessee sprinkled in. OK, the Tigers probably won't win in Starkville, but there's at least a chance to get off to a decent start before a three-game homestand of doom against Southern Mississippi, Houston and Tennessee in the middle of the season.

The return of four starting offensive linemen (plus a tight end) provide some reason for hope. But realistically, Memphis fans would be better off fast-forwarding to October to see just how good those recruits Josh Pastner brought in really are. Football's still at least a year away from making a push back to the top of C-USA.

106. NEW MEXICO

Talk about a rough first year of the job.

Mike Locksley, the uber-recruiter who fueled the eternal promise of Ron Zook's mediocre machine at Florida and Illinois, finally got his first head coaching gig. And he landed in Albuquerque, a nice place with a recent history of cranking out solid football teams.

So he got a sexual harassment lawsuit against him. And he got into a fracas with an assistant coach and wound up suspended for a game. Oh, and the Lobos lost their first 10 games.

In short, Locksley just about hit for the cycle when it came to attracting negative attention to his program.

Fortunately for Locksley, the situation is salvageable --- even if it won't be a quick fix. The Lobos still need a quarterback, where any one of five guys could factor in. That's never a soothing assessment heading into a season.

New Mexico probably won't be good, though it could challenge UNLV and escape the Mountain West basement. As long as the Lobos at least double their victories (to two) and Locksley's problems remain confined to the field, it will probably be a step forward for a program not far removed from reaching five bowls in six seasons (2002-07).

College football countdown: Nos. 111-115

Moving along with five more teams you shouldn't expect to see do much more than collect big paychecks for paying visits to titanic opponents ...

115. BALL STATE

The Cardinals did something that was nearly unprecedented last fall. It was history they wanted no part of.

Ball State joined 1989 UTEP and 2009 Rice as the only teams to lose 10 games a year after they won 10 games. This list of 10-loss teams coming off merely winning seasons isn't particularly huge:

1965 Ohio: 0-10 (5-4-1 in 1964)
1973 Army: 0-10 (6-4 in 1972)
1973 Florida State: 0-11 (7-4 in 1972)
1978 Boston College: 0-11 (6-5 in 1977)
1981 Colorado State: 0-12 (6-4-1 in 1980)
1987 Colorado State: 1-11 (6-5 in 1986)
1989 UTEP: 2-10 (10-3 in 1988)
1990 Cal State Fullerton: 1-11 (6-4-1 in 1989)
2000 Wyoming: 1-10 (7-4 in 1999)
2001 Ohio: 1-10 (7-4 in 2000)
2006 Miami (Ohio): 2-10 (7-4 in 2005)
2006 Colorado: 2-10 (7-6 in 2005)
2006 Memphis: 2-10 (7-5 in 2005)
2006 Louisiana Tech: 3-10 (7-4 in 2005)
2007 Northern Illinois: 2-10 (7-6 in 2006)
2009 Maryland: 2-10 (8-5 in 2008)
2009 Rice: 2-10 (10-3 in 2008)
2009 Ball State: 2-10 (12-2 in 2008)
2009 Vanderbilt: 2-10 (7-6 in 2008)

You'll note eight of these 19 seasons (found thanks mainly to scouring the ESPN College Football Encyclopedia) have come since the advent of the 12-game schedule on a full-time basis in 2006. No surprise there, really.

In any case, the average wins in the third season in the sequence for these yo-yoing outfits before the 12-game schedule: 3.3.

The average wins in the third season in the sequence since the 12-game schedule was made permanent: 5.2.

The return of tailback MiQuale Lewis  thanks to an extra year of eligibility will help give the Cardinals some hope of surpassing that total. The return of most of the components of a passing game that ranked ahead of only the three service academies, Georgia Tech and New Mexico State probably will not.

114. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

A few quick notes on the Golden Panthers, who will visit Byrd Stadium on Sept. 25. ...

1. Florida International was ranked in triple digits in all four major defensive metrics (scoring, passing, rushing total). To say the Golden Panthers were bad on that side of the ball is an understatement.

2. Florida International is 1-19 in September since moving up to college football's top level in 2005.

3. Florida International is 0-17 all-time against BCS conference schools.

In short, history is very much against the Golden Panthers early in the season against big-name teams, even one coming off a 10-loss season like Maryland.

113. TULANE

Sometimes it's possible to look at a lousy record and turn it into something decent.

That's just not the case for the Green Wave, which was 3-9 and absorbed just two of its losses by 20 points or less.

Tulane could barely score and checked in at minus-16 in turnover margin, which gives a torn-up defense a bit of a pass for last year's struggles. But that unit was gutted as well, with an entirely new front seven expected to start.

The Green Wave hasn't checked in at even .500 in Conference USA since 2002, not-so-coincidentally the last time Tulane earned a bowl invitation. It's difficult to envision those streaks ending this year, especially with three road games to open conference play.

112. UL LAFAYETTE

Unremarkable, thy name is UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are coming off their fourth six-win season since 2005, and have nary a postseason appearance to show for it.

In these times of the coming bowl-pocalypse --- when there won't be enough .500 teams to fill up every bowl slot --- a program like UL Lafayette will eventually have to land in a postseason game by default. But the schedule says that won't be this year.

The Cajuns visit Georgia and Mississippi, and Oklahoma State pays a visit to town. Even if UL Lafayette can win at Ohio --- doable, but not easy --- it's going to place a great onus on piling up conference wins.

The best thing going for the Cajuns is a history of protecting solid quarterback Chris Masson. But with three new starters on the line and another switching positions, even that could lead to some dicey days.

111. SAN JOSE STATE

The single most notable thing the Spartans will probably do in coach Mike MacIntyre's first season in the Bay Area will be show up for their season opener at Alabama.

That's because the Crimson Tide is paying a ridiculous $900,000 to San Jose State to travel cross country and absorb what could easily be a 45-7 walloping to open 2010.

That will take care of some bills, no question. But it doesn't take care of on-field problems.

The Spartans were 115th in total offense and 109th in total defense last year. They were outgained, on average, by 160 yards and outscored on a weekly basis by nearly three touchdowns. Regardless of how many starters are returning --- and there are quite a few --- getting to 4-9 in MacIntyre's first season would surely constitute a step forward.

College football countdown: Nos. 116-120

College football season will be here soon. Just not soon enough.

With the lack of anything better to idle away the next month or so, it's time to roll out the college football countdown earlier than it's been uncorked in recent years.

As a refresher course: All 120 major college teams are included in five-team increments. Some quick math says that means there are 24 installments.

By starting it early, it means it isn't crucial to touch on it every day. But it certainly won't hurt in helping to pass the time.

The problem with this way of doing this is eventually, you'll have to plow through all the bad teams.

And that's what this entry, more than any of the others to follow, will do.

120. EASTERN MICHIGAN

There might not be a program that personifies hopelessness quite like the Eagles, who stumbled to an 0-12 season in Ron English's debut season as head coach. Eastern Michigan, still seeking its first .500 or better year since 1995, managed to finish in the bottom half of every major statistical category tracked by the NCAA except one.

That would be passing defense, with Eastern Michigan actually led the nation in. That, however, might be function of the worst rushing defense in the country. The Eagles were railroaded for an average of 276.8 yards on the ground.

Worst of all, no one was paying attention. Eastern Michigan averaged 5,016 fans for its five home games, less than half of the smallest typical crowd of any other major college program.

There's little reason to believe anything --- the defense, the crowds or the victory total --- will be dramatically better this year. When three wins would be a significant accomplishment, a spot at the bottom of the national rankings isn't unfair in the slightest.

119. WESTERN KENTUCKY

If there's any subset of coaches who should receive some sort of job security guarantee, it's those guys who shepherd teams in divisional transitions. The Hilltoppers, a middle-of-the-road member of the former Division I-AA (and admittedly not as good as they were a decade ago under Jack Harbaugh), made a full-time leap to play with the big boys in 2008.

Western Kentucky responded with a 2-22 flourish, including an 0-22 mark against major college opponents, to earn David Elson the heave-ho. Former Hilltoppers QB Willie Taggart will take over the program with the nation's longest winning streak.

The good news for Western Kentucky is it can't get any worse than last year's 0-12. But that doesn't mean things will go all that well, either --- though recent history suggests by a third season, it's possible to have a decent idea how the adjustment to the sport's top level is going to go in the long run.

Teams with winning/.500 records in Year No. 3: Akron, Boise State, Central Florida, Connecticut, Florida Atlantic, Idaho, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, South Florida, Troy

Teams with losing records in Year No. 3: Arkansas State, Buffalo, Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, UAB

It's imperfect, certainly. North Texas enjoyed moderate success in the middle of the last decade, and neither Akron nor Idaho has a particularly illustrious history in the last decade or so.

Nonetheless, there is a divide --- and Western Kentucky will probably land on the wrong side of it by the end of this season.

118. NEW MEXICO STATE

Want a good idea why the Aggies are 14-48 overall and 5-35 in conference since joining the WAC in 2005? Let's look at a crucial category.

WORST TURNOVER MARGIN, 2005-2009

No. School	Margin
1. New Mexico State	-64
2. North Texas	-57
3. Army	-49
4. Tulane	-47
5. Wyoming	-42
6. Fresno State	-40
7t. Idaho	-38
7t. Illinois	-38
9t. Marshall	-33
9t. Washington State	-33
11. Florida International	-31
12. N.C. State	-30

To some extent, luck plays a role in turnovers. But when a minus-10 season (as New Mexico State had last year) constitutes better than average, you're just not very good. As a point of fairness, Mumme Ball for the first four seasons of that stretch didn't do the Aggies any favors.

Of course, ditching Hal Mumme did have its drawbacks. New Mexico State ranked last nationally with 229.3 yards total offense. That'll be tougher to fix than the turnovers, and that sort of ineptitude is more than enough to justify this ranking.

117. MIAMI (OHIO)

Another overly generous team, the RedHawks checked in at minus-24 in turnover margin a year ago, and it was a big reason why they wound up 1-11. It was the third 10-loss season in three years for Miami

And that begs a question: What in the name of Travis Prentice is going on just outside Cincinnati?

This isn't a traditionally sad-sack program, but one known for solid (or better) teams and a habit of exporting coaches on to bigger and better things. But Miami has endured four straight losing seasons for the first time since 1939-42, and is staring at only the second run of five straight sub-.500 campaigns in school history. The other was 1897-1901.

Normally, a team returning all five starters on the offensive line would be a prime candidate for big progress. But the RedHawks managed just 70.1 yards a game on the ground --- next-to-last nationally --- last year. Mere "improvement" would still leave Miami a step or two away from competitiveness.

116. NORTH TEXAS

For most teams, yielding 35.6 points a game would be a bad thing.

And, granted, it was for the Mean Green. But it was also a 12-point improvement over 2008, and that has to count for something.

Nonetheless, coach Todd Dodge is 5-31 over the last three seasons since being plucked from the high school ranks. That was an unorthodox move, and unorthodox choices are the kinds that get reversed earlier than ones that made complete sense at the time. Another feeble season might just about spell the end of this experiment.

One good sign going forward for Dodge: North Texas was 0-6 in one-possession games last year. Those close losses --- including the season's final three games --- did little to help last fall, but they are perhaps an indication the Mean Green can move closer to the middle of the Sun Belt in 2010.