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Reviewing the East Carolina game day predictions

One  look back on expectations and reality from Maryland's 51-20 rout of East Carolina.

1. Torrey Smith will catch at least two touchdown passes.

INCORRECT. Smith had only two receptions for 10 yards in his final game at Maryland. Perhaps just as notable a number is Maryland had 13 completions against East Carolina while Smith had 14 by himself in the regular season finale against N.C. State

2. Maryland's safeties will account for at least one turnover.

CORRECT. Eric Franklin had an interception, Kenny Tate recovered a fumble and Antwine Perez (while not getting credit for a turnover) made a touchdown-saving tackle as a prelude to Maryland's goal-line stand in the fourth quarter.

3. East Carolina will throw for 300+ yards.

CORRECT. The Pirates got there on their final snap, finishing with 311 yards over 62 attempts. While not remotely efficient, they did hit the plateau they usually reach.

4. Maryland will score 40 points.

CORRECT. Da'Rel Scott's 91-yard run --- the longest in coach Ralph Friedgen's tenure --- put Maryland over the top of the 40-point barrier with 11:20 to play. Ultimately, Maryland scored 40 points for the fifth time this year and finished with a 31.5 scoring average, the Terps' highest since 2002.

5. Maryland will send Ralph Friedgen out a winner.

CORRECT. Maryland never trailed, collected four turnovers and at one point scored five touchdowns on 25 snaps in the second half. It was a demolition, and Maryland set a school bowl record for points (51) and came within three points of the school record for bowl margin of victory (the 2004 New Year's Day defeat of West Virginia in the Gator Bowl was a 34-point bludgeoning). It didn't look great early on, but Maryland wound up earning an emphatic victory in Friedgen's last game.

East Carolina: 4-for-5
Season: 39.5-for-65

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-East Carolina

Wrapping up the season with five final game-day predictions, this time centered on the Military Bowl between Maryland and East Carolina ...

1. Torrey Smith will catch at least two touchdown passes.

Sure, East Carolina could wind up double-teaming the junior after he torched N.C. State for four touchdowns in the regular season finale. More likely than anything, though, Smith will have one last field day. That might even include the 196 yards he needs to surpass Marcus Badgett's 1992 program record of 1,240 receiving yards in a season.

2. Maryland's safeties will account for at least one turnover.

If there's a single unit that Maryland consistently received superior play from this season, it was the safeties. Both Antwine Perez and Kenny Tate enjoyed superb seasons and combined for six interceptions, six forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. Expect a strong showing from both in the season's final game.

3. East Carolina will throw for 300+ yards.

It's what the Pirates do. Of East Carolina's last eight opponents, only Marshall held the Pirates to less than 300 yards passing --- and East Carolina won 37-10, anyway. Dominique Davis will have a strong yardage day and probably throw a couple touchdown passes. The key for him will be avoiding turnovers.

4. Maryland will score 40 points.

It's what the Pirates' opponents do. East Carolina allowed nine teams to crack the 40-point plateau, and it gave up 54.8 points a game in a season-ending 1-4 slide. Maryland, meanwhile, has two 62-point games (Morgan State and Wake Forest) and two 42-point games (Florida International and Virginia) to its credit. The Terps are well-positioned to force East Carolina to roll up a large point total if the Pirates are to pull an upset.

5. Maryland will send Ralph Friedgen out a winner.

There will be lots of scoring, but Maryland at least has some history of playing defense. It could be a day in which a team that is forced to punt three times will be up a creek. In any case, Maryland owns the superior resume and played better in the second half of the season than East Carolina did. Friedgen's firing might or might not be a galvanizing force; it's hard to say. But the Terps avoided massive staff defections before the bowl, and they should still have enough stability to make it through the afternoon and earn their ninth victory of the season.

Reviewing the N.C. State game day predictions

The first of many posts now that I'm home and situated after Maryland's wild 38-31 defeat of N.C. State. Let's look back on the pregame picks and see how they worked out. ...

1. Danny O'Brien will account for at least one touchdown.

CORRECT. O'Brien accounted for four, and with 23 on the season now ranks third in school history for a single year behind Scott Milanovich (29 in 1993) and Scott McBrien (25 in 2003). And to think: O'Brien has three more seasons.

2. Torrey Smith will at least tie Maryland's school record for receiving touchdowns in a season.

CORRECT. Actually, Smith obliterated it. He has a dozen touchdown catches after scoring four times against N.C. State, three more than any receiver in school history. Simply an amazing season for the junior.

3. It will be close.

CORRECT. For the 10th time in 11 games, Maryland-N.C. State was decided by 10 points or less.

4. Maryland will intercept Russell Wilson at least twice.

INCORRECT. The Terps picked off Wilson just once, but it set up a touchdown in the second quarter that helped turn things for the Terps. Nonetheless, for 60 pass attempts, only throwing one pick was good for Wilson.

5. Maryland will win.

CORRECT. The Terps scored 38 of 41 points at one stage to secure only their second victory in a regular season finale in the last six years.

N.C. State: 4-for-5
Season: 35.5-for-60

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-N.C. State

It's time for the regular-season finale. Time flies, doesn't it? Tough to believe that between tomorrow and the first weekend of September, the only football that will be seen at Byrd Stadium is the spring game.

(I've got some lacrosse to tide me over as well, but as I've been reminded countless times, that only excites a niche audience).

Anyway, just two hours or so to kickoff, and that means it's time to trot out the regular season's final set of predictions.

1. Danny O'Brien will account for at least one touchdown. In doing so, the redshirt freshman will become only the sixth different Maryland player to figure into 20 touchdowns or more in a season. The last? Scott McBrien in 2003.

2. Torrey Smith will at least tie Maryland's school record for receiving touchdowns in a season. Smith has eight touchdown catches, one shy of the mark set by Marcus Badgett in 1992 and matched by Jermaine Lewis in 1994. Smith's had a ridiculously consistent season, and that will continue with another strong day in what could be his last game at Byrd.

3. It will be close. Nine of the last 10 meetings between the teams were decided by 10 points or less. Granted, the 13-3 game in 2004 never felt that close, and N.C. State closed in garbage time in the '06 game to make it a respectable 37-0. But don't expect a blowout. Not today.

4. Maryland will intercept Russell Wilson at least twice. The Terps picked off Wilson three times last year, which was a nearly unthinkable prospect at the time. Maryland has 16 interceptions this season --- four returned for scores --- and it will set up the offense with decent field position a couple times this afternoon.

5. Maryland will win. The Terps are 1-10 in the final two games of the regular season dating back to 2005. The lone victory came in the 2007 season finale against N.C. State. But more than that, the Terps have not lost consecutive games all season and don't seem to be dealing with the issues that have plagued past Maryland teams. The Terps won't make this easy, and it might not even be all that watchable. But the Terps should pull out a victory to earn their first eight-win regular season in four years.

Miami: 2.5-for-5
Virginia: 3-for-5
Florida State: 2-for-5
Season: 31.5-for-55

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Florida State

Closing in on a half-hour to game time. Let's get to five things to look for as Maryland takes on Florida State.

1. D.J. Adams will score a touchdown. It's well-established now that Adams is going to be the Terps' best option along the goal line. He received nine red zone carries last season, and assuming Maryland gets down there again, he'll be relied upon. Bank on Adams visiting the end zone at least once.

2. Christian Ponder will be sharp. The Florida State quarterback accounted for six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games, but he sat out a week ago because of an injury to his throwing arm. Bank on 200 yards and a couple scores for the senior, who is still seeking his first Atlantic Division title.

3. Maryland won't win if it doesn't hold a turnover advantage. Not just a split. A win. Maryland holds an 80-7 advantage in points off turnovers; the Terps only have a 34-point edge on opponents when scores off takeaways aren't factored in. That's the sort of help Maryland requires to upend Florida State.

4. Florida State will get at least three sacks. The Terps have allowed 13 sacks in their three losses, and four sacks in their seven victories. The Seminoles have the goods to create problems for the Maryland offensive line, which coach Ralph Friedgen acknowledged during the week. Florida State will get theirs, but don't expect a complete debacle from the Maryland line barring an injury.

5. Florida State will win. The Terps have struggled against teams with a surplus of athletes. That sounds like Florida State. It will be close --- much like the loss at Miami was two weeks ago --- but ultimately the Seminoles will escape with its conference title hopes intact in a game that won't be a shootout.

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Virginia

CHARLOTTESVILLE --- It's gorgeous down here in the Shenandoah Valley, and kickoff is within the hour. Let's get to some predictions.

1. Maryland will score a defensive touchdown. The Terrapins have three scores on defense in the last two weeks. Virginia entered the week tied for third in the ACC with 19 turnovers. It's almost come to the point where it's a disappointment if Maryland doesn't get a defensive or special teams score.

2. Keith Payne will rumble for 100 yards and a score. The burly senior has enjoyed a fine season after getting buried on depth chart under Virginia's previous regime. He's not as good as Boston College's Montel Harris, but he can grind out yards like the Eagles star. While Virginia might not manage much off those yeards, it should still get them from the reliable Payne.

3. Danny O'Brien will get back on track. The Maryland quarterback slogged through last week, and came out with a valuable experience if not a victory. Look for another 200 yards and at least two touchdowns against Virginia, even though Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnifield are expected to play.

4. Travis Baltz will move into third on Maryland's career punting yardage list. A little obscure, sure, but he needs 83 yards to pass Brooks Barnard. That might be it for his rise on that chart; Adam Podlesh had 9,314, while Baltz is at 8,651 entering the final three regular season games of his career.

5. Maryland will win --- but not in convincing fashion. Charlottesville is a house of horrors for Maryland, and there's no guaranteed even in a year Virginia is down (or at least not up) that the Terps will leave Scott Stadium with a win. Remember 2008? Anyway, the Terps should be able to score on Virginia, but it's been a long while since they had an overwhelming victory on the road (2007 at N.C. State). A touchdown margin is about right, but Maryland should want no part of a tight game in this place.

Reviewing the Miami game day predictions

Not a particularly good day with the predictions. Let's review:

1. Miami won't run for 100 yards. 

INCORRECT. The Hurricanes repeatedly burned Maryland on the perimeter, rushing for 218 yards by exploiting their greatest advantage --- speed and athleticism. Lamar Miller ran for 125 yards, and on 10 of the 20 runs he was tackled, it was a defensive back who had the initial hit.

2. This doesn't look like a day for the passing games, either.

CORRECT. There were more picks (three) than touchdown passes (two), and Miami's Stephen Morris was solid though unspectacular until the final drive. Maryland's Danny O'Brien was under pressure all day.

3. Maryland will try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half.

INCORRECT. Didn't happen. Maryland's lone second-half field goal was a 22-yarder Travis Baltz converted.

4. D.J. Adams will play in the first half.

CORRECT. You missed it if you blinked, but Adams was in for a play on first-and-goal when O'Brien threw to Haroon Brown. Still, Adams was not a factor in the offense.

5. Miami wins with a lot of help from its defense. 

SEMI-CORRECT. The Hurricanes did win, their lone interception denied Maryland in the red zone in the third quarter and they harassed O'Brien throughout the game. Miami's defense was good, but it wasn't over-the-top great. The Hurricanes needed to drive more than 60 yards for all but one of its scores --- a field goal drive that covered 43 yards in the third quarter.

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Miami

Five forecasts for this afternoon's Maryland-Miami game at Sun Life Stadium ...

1. Miami won't run for 100 yards. Maryland has held four straight opponents to less than 100 yards rushing, and it can't be emphasized enough how much this unit has improved for the Terrapins. Take out the season opener against Navy, and Maryland is yielding 84.3 rushing yards a game --- which would rank fifth nationally. Yes, Damien Berry is out, but the Terps would be stacked up to stop the run even if he was playing. If Miami's offense is going to do damage, it will be forced to do so on the strength of Stephen Morris' arm.

2. This doesn't look like a day for the passing games, either. Morris is making his first career start. Miami has the top pass defense and pass efficiency defense in the country. But guess who's second coming into the week in pass efficiency defense? Yep, Maryland. The teams have combined to yield just 13 touchdown passes while intercepting 26 passes. There will be more picks than scoring strikes in this one.

3. Maryland will try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half. It's pretty amazing that for all of Maryland's kicking issues, it has bothered to try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half just once all season. That was in a decidedly non-pressure situation --- a 47-yarder to make it 48-0 against Morgan State.

And it's not like there have been many opportunities that were eschewed, either. A look at how long Maryland's field goal attempts would have been had they not gone for fourth downs within remotely possible field goal range (inside 55 yards):

40, up 55-3 vs. Morgan State (eventually got a TD)
44, down 28-14 at West Virginia (eventually got a FG)
50, up 28-21 vs. Florida International (eventually got a TD)
46, down 24-7 at Clemson (turned over on downs)
52, up 24-21 at Boston College (turned over on downs)
50, up 55-14 vs. Wake Forest (eventually got a TD)

Out of all those scenarios, the field goal might have made sense only against West Virginia (which is a stretch) and Florida International. The Terps are due for this sort of situation to pop up on them.

4. D.J. Adams will play in the first half. It's not that Davin Meggett (11.3 carries per game) or Da'Rel Scott (9.5 carries per game) are all that weary and banged up. But Adams is fresh, showed a lot against Wake Forest and is simply Maryland's best downhill runner. Maybe he can't pass protect effectively enough at this stage of his career, but he might be the Terps' best bet for a tough yard heading into the final month of the season.

5. Miami wins with a lot of help from its defense. The Hurricanes will be without Jacory Harris and Damien Berry, and yes, that will hurt. But Miami still has its defense, which is the key for it to win games even when its backfield is completely healthy. This will be the best defense Maryland faces all season, and certainly the one most capable of making Danny O'Brien look like a freshman (which no one, aside from Clemson in the final quarter, has managed to do so far). Whether it's through stingy play or perhaps a touchdown of its own, the Miami D will be the clear difference in a low-scoring, fairly tight game.

Reviewing the Wake Forest game day predictions

Let's go to the video tape ...

1. Da'Rel Scott will reach the 2,000-yard plateau for his career in the first quarter. 

CORRECT. Scott needed 11 yards in the first quarter to get to 2,000 and wound up with 12. Scott ran for 50 yards on the day, and he has 2,048 yards --- 10th on the school's career list.

2. It will be a good day for wideouts.

SEMI-CORRECT. Torrey Smith had a strong day --- five catches, 66 yards and a touchdown --- but it was more a collective effort than a single individual. LaQuan Williams  and Quintin McCree also caught touchdowns for Maryland. Wake's Chris Givens, though, had three catches for six yards.

3. Speaking of Smith, the ACC kickoff return yardage record will be his. Finally.

INCORRECT. Smith didn't have a return all day. He wasn't back for Wake's first kickoff, and was kicked away from in another instance.

4. Danny O'Brien will thrive against his hometown team.

CORRECT. Four touchdown passes in 20 pass attempts qualifies as "thriving."

5. Maryland will become bowl eligible.

CORRECT. The Terrapins are headed somewhere for the holidays after the 62-14 rout. Now it's just a matter of figuring out where. The next four games will determine that, but Maryland doesn't have to talk about bowl eligibility again this season.

Wake Forest: 3.5-for-5
Season: 24-for-40

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Wake Forest

A little more than 26 hours before kickoff, here's five predictions to consider for Saturday's Maryland-Wake Forest game at Byrd Stadium.

1. Da'Rel Scott will reach the 2,000-yard plateau for his career in the first quarter. The senior has just 37 yards on 13 carries since the bye week, and junior Davin Meggett now has 10 more rushes than Scott on the season. But Scott needs only 11 more yards to become the 10th player in Maryland history to get to 2,000, and he should finally take care of that pretty quickly against Wake Forest.

2. It will be a good day for wideouts. Wake's numbers against the run are less than desirable, but it is vulnerable in other ways. Look for Torrey Smith to get into the end zone while getting covered by a freshman corner at least once, while Wake Forest's Chris Givens is able to piece together a strong day against the Terps for the second straight year.

3. Speaking of Smith, the ACC kickoff return yardage record will be his. Finally. Smith needs 10 yards to surpass Brandon Tate at long last for this record. That shouldn't be a problem for the junior, whose production as a return man has waned this season because of injury and struggles of blockers in front of him.

4. Danny O'Brien will thrive against his hometown team. O'Brien played his high school ball just outside of Winston-Salem, and Maryland was able to swoop in and snag him in recruiting a couple years ago. O'Brien's de facto homecoming game next year in the Dash should be fun, but for now, he should crack double digits in touchdown passes for the season. Wake could start five freshmen on defense, making the job a bit easier. A day in line with his season ratio (three TDs for every interception) or even better sounds right.

5. Maryland will become bowl eligible. This wouldn't be big news in most college football burgs, but in College Park there will be a sense of accomplishment --- and rightfully so. The Terrapins are simply a more developed team than Wake Forest at this stage, and should manage to handle a well-coached but young Demon Deacons team and get to 6-2.