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ACC schedule quick take: Georgia Tech

Conference: Home --- Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia Tech; Road --- Duke, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia

Nonconference: Home --- Georgia, Kansas, Western Carolina; Road --- Middle Tennessee

Bye: Week 10

Don’t play: Boston College, Florida State, Wake Forest

Must-see: Anything in September, if only to track the progress of the Yellow Jackets' offense in the post-Joshua Nesbitt era. Sure, they got an early look --- and it wasn't pretty --- but a full offseason of preparation should iron things out a bit.

A favorable setup: Again, September. There are four winnable games --- Georgia Tech would stand a decent chance to be favored in all of them, and should be favored in at least three --- and that should offer something of a glimpse at whether the Yellow Jackets can shake off last year's regression. Anything less than a 3-1 start is going to be cause for serious concern.

And not so much: There are four extremely challenging games among the final five on this schedule, even if three will be played in Atlanta. There won't be much time for breathers down the stretch for the Insects.

The full schedule:

Sept. 1: Western Carolina
Sept. 10: at Middle Tennessee
Sept. 17: Kansas
Sept. 24: North Carolina

Oct. 1: at N.C. State
Oct. 8: Maryland
Oct. 15: at Virginia
Oct. 22: at Miami
Oct. 29: Clemson

Nov. 10: Virginia Tech, ESPN, 8
Nov. 19: at Duke
Nov. 26: Georgia

Maryland plus-minus: Georgia Tech

If it seemed like Maryland guard Sean Mosley enjoyed one of his best games of the season on Sunday, well, that's because he did.

The junior scored 16 points, his best total since the season opener against Seattle, was particularly efficient whenever he was on the floor.

Consider: Maryland outscored Georgia Tech by 25 points when Mosley was on the court. The final margin was 11 points. While not always the case, the plus-minus and Mosley's performance match up pretty well.

More after the jump.

Game 21: Maryland paints a different picture in defeat of Georgia Tech

ATLANTA --- Maryland hardly missed a shot in the second half Thursday at Virginia.

The Terrapins barely managed anything outside the paint three days later against Georgia Tech.

The formula in the two road games was dramatically different. The outcome was pretty much the same.

Maryland pounded away for a 74-63 victory at the Alexander Memorial Coliseum, collecting their third straight double-digit conference road victory and nosing above .500 in league play for the first time this season.

The Terps (14-7, 4-3 ACC) did so without one of the standbys of modern college basketball. After 407 straight games with a 3-pointer, Maryland didn't make one.

It didn't matter.

"I think we're a very versatile team," forward Jordan Williams said. "We can score in many ways. Last game, it was threes. Last game, we beat them with threes. This game, we didn't hit any threes? That's what I'm saying."

The Yellow Jackets (10-10, 3-4) aren't the most formidable bunch, though they've played well at home in conference play --- blasting North Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in the last two weeks at the increasingly empty Thrillerdome. They're undersized, the result of Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors turning pro early and leaving a guard-centric lineup behind.

Of Georgia Tech's four players taller than 6-foot-5, one sat with the flu (Brian Oliver), one was out after an appendectomy (Nate Hicks) and a third dealt with foul trouble all night (Daniel Miller).

And so punishing the post made all the sense in the world, especially with Williams (21 points, 15 rebounds) eager to face a team incapable of draping three bodies on him as Virginia did in Charlottesville.

It was enough, though he received help from Sean Mosley and Dino Gregory and whoever else deemed it appropriate to join Williams in the paint. Cliff Tucker scored in transition. Pe'Shon Howard and Terrell Stoglin drove for layups.

No aid, though, was coming from the perimeter. And after a while, it wasn't so much by design as what made sense.

"After we got the lead in the first half, I think we got jump shot happy right there," coach Gary Williams said. "We're that type of team where I think sometimes if we don't hit outside shots early, it seems like it doesn't get there that night. We have to find ways to win and we were able to go inside and do a pretty good job at the free throw line for us."

The fascinating lesson of the past four days is the striking contrast between this and other recent bubble-dwellers at Maryland. The 2009 team, for instance, had a remarkably limited path to victory. There were only so many ways it could succeed thanks to various roster limitations --- notably the absence of a powerful paint presence. And still they won just enough to reach the NCAA tournament.

These Terps have a double-double machine in Jordan Williams and an impressive complement in Gregory, who continues to churn out solid work in his final season. Maryland's perimeter presence isn't consistent, but it does materialize at times and can be a difference on some nights.

Not Sunday. Maryland scored 48 points in the paint and 24 more at the foul line. Only Mosley's jumper just outside the post with 10:28 left prevented Maryland from getting nothing in the paint.

The Terps were 1-for-11 outside the post, and didn't connect on a 3-pointer for the first time since Jan. 7, 1999. Of course, the 24-for-52 work elsewhere on the court wasn't exactly stellar, either.

"We did not shoot the ball well tonight as jump shooters, and we didn't shoot well shooting layups, either," Gary Williams said. "It was pick your poison."

Still, Maryland had enough to topple yet another second division team away from College Park. It couldn't make a 3-pointer. Its lead acted as an accordion, shrinking from 13 points to four and then back up to 11 by the time many of the Thrillerdome patrons fled to the parking lot and a boisterous "Let's go Maryland" cheer echoed throughout the old building from a solid contingent of supporters.

The Terps didn't do everything on Sunday. But they won convincingly enough --- and far differently than they had just a few days earlier.

"We do whatever we have to do to win the game," Jordan Williams said. "We adjust to any type of defense. We take whatever they give us. It was important for us tonight to come out and just attack the basket and get it inside."

Flipping through history: Current Terps vs. Georgia Tech

Two of Maryland's seniors likely have very distinct memories of their games against Georgia Tech --- for opposite reasons.

The last time Adrian Bowie visited Alexander Memorial Coliseum, as he will when Maryland plays at Georgia Tech on Sunday, he fell ill during the morning and made only a one-minute cameo.

The last time Cliff Tucker faced the Yellow Jackets in the regular season, he hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to secure a mid-February victory.

The full rundown of Maryland's returning players against Paul Hewitt's team after the jump:

Eve of the season ACC primer: Georgia Tech

(The fifth of 12 ACC team previews)

The Chan Gailey years brought a bland, stodgy level of predictability to Georgia Tech's football program. Every year, the process was the same. Collect seven wins and move along to next season. If Calvin Johnson was around, maybe nine wins could be extracted.

There is some predictability now that Paul Johnson is entrenched for the foreseeable future. The Yellow Jackets will run the triple option. They will cause fits to opponents. They generally won't beat themselves.

Oh, and 9-3 is the new number to bank on.

Sure, Georgia Tech will be better than that on occasion (like the 11-3 from a year ago). But as long as Johnson is around and the team isn't decimated by injuries, the floor for the Yellow Jackets seems like it isn't particularly low.

That's important heading into this year, since a common analyst might see that Demaryius Thomas (big loss) and Jonathan Dwyer (eminently replaceable loss) are gone along with the two biggest names on the defense (Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett) and assume Georgia Tech is in for a decline.

Perhaps a modest one is coming, yet it won't be big. Get used to seeing the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division race. With Johnson calling the shots, that isn't going to change any time soon.

When we last saw them ... : Georgia Tech produced a feeble offensive performance in an Orange Bowl loss to Iowa (in the coldest Orange Bowl ever, as Dick Stockton intoned on a repeating loop throughout the game) to spoil what was otherwise a pretty enjoyable season.

The Yellow Jackets didn't beat Georgia for a second straight season, but they did wrap up their first outright ACC title since 1990 and hung around the top 10 in the polls after beating Virginia Tech in mid-October.

There were some nits to pick for the season as a whole, certainly, but it was further evidence Johnson wasn't going to be a part of a stale, Gailey-like rut. Even if Iowa could stop Georgia Tech's offense with a month of prep time (much like Louisiana State did a year earlier in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl), it doesn't seem like ACC schools made all that much progress in doing so on a week-to-week basis.

Included below are three sets of yards per game (rush, pass, total), points per game, total turnovers and record against conference opponents for the Yellow Jackets the last two seasons:

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE vs. ACC OPPONENTS, 2008 vs. 2009

Year	Rush	Pass	Total	Points	TOs	Record
2008	264.1	100.5	364.6	22.5	20	5-3
2009	315.1	111.8	426.9	33.3	10	8-1

Everything got better offensively, or at least very nearly everything. Players were more accustomed to Johnson's system, and pieces that didn't fit quite as well were further weeded out. Not every year will be as good as 2009, but most won't be too far off that mark.

Biggest question: Stopping the run. Nothing makes a coach take notice of a problem quite as much as when it surfaces in a rivalry or postseason game.

Or both. The Yellow Jackets allowed more than 300 yards rushing to both Georgia (a loss) and Clemson (a win, but barely thanks to C.J. Spiller) and yielded 172 yards to Iowa in the Orange Bowl loss.

This wasn't new. Georgia Tech surrendered more than 200 yards rushing in defeats of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, giving them a 3-1 record when getting run over for that much.

Nonetheless, an efficient running game from an opponent is no way to go through a season again. To that end, Johnson hired former Virginia coach Al Groh to take over the defense.

Groh didn't turn out to be a great head coach. And while Groh's smart and hard-working, he probably won't win many popularity contests.

But Lord Groh knows defense as well as anyone, and to his credit some bad Virginia teams never quit on him. His addition was the best move any ACC school made with its coaching staff last year. He might not solve all the defensive woes, but here's guessing he comes close.

Biggest asset: Quarterback Joshua Nesbitt. The Yellow Jackets will learn just how replaceable Dwyer was when Anthony Allen uncorks a 1,000-yard season. They don't want to discover just how difficult it will be to jump in for Nesbitt midstream.

That would be the job for Tevin Washington if Nesbitt, who ran for 1,037 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, gets hurt. Nesbitt is one of the most irreplaceable options in the country, and his ability to run Johnson's scheme is particularly efficient. As long as he's in one piece, Georgia Tech will go into every game with at least a chance (and, in most cases, a likelihood) of winning.

Best case: The Yellow Jackets' defense adjusts to Groh's scheme quickly and the team rattles off seven straight victories before facing a critical stretch against Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami. After one stumble in there, Georgia Tech rallies to handle Georgia and whoever comes out of the Atlantic Division to win back-to-back ACC titles for the first time while harboring hopes of a top-five finish.

Worst case: Nesbitt deals with nagging injuries all season --- to the point he can play, but not as effectively as he did a year ago. The defense still gives up nearly five yards a run and the Yellow Jackets suffer a surprising early loss (perhaps at depleted North Carolina). Miami and Virginia Tech exploit pure talent advantages for November victories, and Georgia does the same a few weeks later. Georgia Tech winds up 8-4 --- still better than Gailey territory --- and heads to a winnable mid-tier bowl.

Where we'll see them in three months: Georgia Tech might not wind up in Charlotte. Virginia Tech will be its usual 10-win (at minimum) self, and Miami is much improved.

The Yellow Jackets, though, will have a say in things.

Georgia Tech got a lift from the schedule rotation. Clemson is a permanent crossover rival, but dates with N.C. State and Wake Forest sound better than dealing with Boston College or Florida State (which matched Georgia Tech yard for yard in last season's defense-optional showdown).

Nesbitt and Allen will be a brutal combination for defenses to contend with, and someone will emerge from the wide receiver scrum to provide a semi-decent possibility for Nesbitt to throw to on occasion. The defense, while not overwhelming, should be better with most of its starters back and an upgrade at coordinator.

Ultimately, one of the most crucial numbers in the chart listed above was the turnover total. Georgia Tech halved that figure in conference play last season and came out of it with a trip to the league title game despite playing in the stronger of the ACC's two divisions. Nesbitt, better than ever at handling the demands of the option scheme, can keep that total low.

There's enough questions to prompt some pause in predicting a conference crown. Nevertheless, the Yellow Jackets won't stagger backward. This year might not result in Georgia Tech repeating as ACC champs, but it will further cement the program's regular baseline as a 9-3 season.

College football countdown: Nos. 16-20

Down to the top 20 on the countdown. Time to unveil many of everyone else's chic picks that just aren't entirely trustworthy for a full season.

No. 20 ARKANSAS

Everyone seems to love the Hogs, and to some extent it is understandable. Quarterback Ryan Mallett (30 touchdowns, seven interceptions) has a bit to do with that, but he also returns much of his help.

So let's agree for a moment the Razorbacks are going to be fun to watch on offense. Heck, with Tim Tebow off to the NFL, Arkansas might even possess the most explosive team in the SEC.

But two very troublesome, very unavoidable things stand out.

First, the Razorbacks aren't going to replicate their gaudy +15 turnover margin. They just aren't. It might be on the positive side, but it won't be that favorable over the course of another season unless the Hogs are really lucky. And the regression to the mean will not only nullify some of Arkansas' improvement, but also create greater issues for a defense that yielded more than 400 yards a game last season (easily the worst in the SEC).

Second, the early gauntlet remains, even if it isn't quite so scary. Florida rotates off the schedule and Mississippi isn't quite so strong, but playing Georgia (road), Alabama (home), Texas A&M (in Jerry Land) and Auburn (road) in succession in the first half of the season could easily send the Razorbacks tumbling from the top 25.

So, yes, Arkansas will be better. It just might not be enough to do much better than 8-4 or 9-3.

No. 19 AUBURN

A lot sets up swimmingly for the Tigers, who may not really be better than Arkansas or Louisiana State but certainly don't face as difficult a road to 10 wins as their SEC West brethren.

First of all, both of those teams have to visit the Plains. And so do Arkansas State, Clemson, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga.

That's right, Auburn is sticking to its recent game plan of staying at home as much as possible. Since 2004, the Tigers have played just one nonconference road game (a 34-17 loss at West Virginia in 2008).

Heck, even Alabama played Clemson in Atlanta two years ago (and is visiting Duke this year).

In any case, the Tigers are good enough on offense and talented enough (if not effective enough) on defense to have a prayer at getting to 11-0. There are SEC trips to Mississippi State, Kentucky and Mississippi --- hardly automatic wins, but better than trips to the Swamp and Death Valley --- and a lot of home cooking before an Iron Bowl trip to Tuscaloosa.

This isn't a prediction Auburn cracks the top 10 and has a chance to win the SEC entering Thanksgiving weekend; a defense that gave up 30 points on seven occasions last year would make that borderline nuts. But there would be more surprising outcomes this season than a stealthy BCS push by the Tigers.

No. 18 MIAMI

Here's the moment of truth: Does anyone really trust Miami to become a consistent team?

This isn't the sort of question along the lines of "Does anyone think the Hurricanes won't get shut out by Virginia?" Miami's moved past that sort of problem, and it absolutely must be viewed as a top-20 team going forward.

This is a bunch that beat Oklahoma hammered Georgia Tech and pulled out a stirring opening week defeat of Florida State. It also flopped at Virginia Tech and North Carolina and nearly got stung at Wake Forest.

Jacory Harris can be one of the nation's top quarterbacks. He can also be a complete wreck, depending on the day. Those 17 interceptions don't just throw themselves.

The defense is good. Not vintage The U good, but that's an absurd standard. It should still be better this fall than it was a year ago.

And so it's time to return to the original point. Can Miami be trusted to be a top-10 team all the time? The guess here is not quite yet. There will be nights when the Hurricanes look invincible, and there are a couple national title contenders (Ohio State, Virginia Tech) that had better hope it doesn't come at their expense.

But that wasn't an every-week occurrence for Miami last fall. Until proven otherwise, it's best not to count on it being the case now, either.

No. 17 NORTH CAROLINA

The Tar Heels will be fine on defense, what with a unit stocked with future pros and solid enough special teams.

But the offense ... oh dear.

Yes, 10 starters are back, but they're part of a unit that ranked in the bottom 10 percent nationally in total yardage and the ACC's third-worst passing attack (behind Georgia Tech's option-scheme and whatever snarky moniker you wish to provide to Virginia's attempt to throw the ball last year).

In particular, there's the question of whether T.J. Yates is a good enough quarterback to lead a team to a championship. It's a great curiosity, and it has to be one of the top questions on the minds of Tar Heels fans --- beyond, of course, (a) Is Harrison Barnes a hardwood deity; (b) Did John Henson add any muscle this offseason; and (c) What nuggets of wisdom did Roy Williams get from his massage therapist lately?

OK, enough with poking fun at Carolina as a hoops school. Its football --- a sleeping giant since Mack Brown departed for Texas --- should be good this fall. But what exactly does it take at quarterback to win the ACC.

Let's cue up the last 10 years:

QUARTERBACKS ON ACC CHAMPS, 2000-09

Year	QB	C-A (Pct.)	Yards	TD	INT
2000	Chris Weinke	266-431 (61.7)	4167	33	11
2001	Shaun Hill	197-329 (59.9)	2380	13	9
2002	Chris Rix	118-225 (52.4)	1684	13	7
2003	Chris Rix	216-382 (56.5)	3107	23	13
2004	Bryan Randall	170-306 (55.6)	2264	21	9
2005	Drew Weatherford	276-469 (58.8)	3208	18	18
2006	Riley Skinner	171-260 (65.8)	2051	9	5
2007	Sean Glennon	143-235 (60.9)	1796	12	5
2008	Tyrod Taylor	99-173 (57.2)	1036	2	7
2009	Josh Nesbitt	75-162 (46.3)	1701	10	5

It's funny. Yates' completion percentage from a season ago would rank fourth on that list. His yardage trumps half of those guys. His touchdown total was more than the last four title winning QBs. And his interception total ... well, that's better left untouched.

(It's also crucial to mention Taylor had 738 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in '08, while Nesbitt had 1,037 yards and 18 TDs on the ground last year).

The overall point here is Yates isn't a massive outlier among guys who have hauled home a conference title of late, which might surprise Carolina fans.

Sure, he probably won't be an NFL star (who on that list above was) and he still needs to get better --- cutting down on those 15 interceptions would be a nice start. But Carolina's offensive problems can't all be pinned on him, and the Tar Heels need to improve everywhere as a unit and not just under center. If that happens, Butch Davis' team might not just be a trendy pick. It could be an accurate one.

No. 16 GEORGIA TECH

With Paul Johnson running the offense and former Virginia coach Al Groh handling the defense, the Yellow Jackets are virtually certain to lead the league in hubris. Both are extremely intelligent guys when it comes to their profession, both can maximize the production of their units among the best in their business and they're both keenly aware of their knowledge and abilities.

There's also a better chance than most realize that the Yellow Jackets lead the league in wins, too.

Georgia Tech is the rare situation where turnover in offensive linemen is actually a good thing. Johnson is slowly but surely working his preferred sort of blocker --- quick and agile over slow and plodding --- into the mix. And don't worry much about Jonathan Dwyer's departure; the Yellow Jackets will simply plug-n-play Anthony Allen, who averaged 9.7 yards a carry a season ago.

There are some questions on defense, but Groh can usually coach up players as well as anyone. One telling thing about Virginia teams of the last decade --- even the bad ones in recent years --- is they never quit on Groh. That said, he'll probably be pretty happy to coach the defense of a team that held the ball for 33:49 a game last season. Coordinating the defense is a bit easier when the offense keeps you off the field.

Ultimately, it will be Josh Nesbitt (and his ability to stay on the field) that determines whether this projection is too optimistic. While running backs are particularly disposable in Johnson's system, effective quarterbacks are not.

The Yellow Jackets' season will hinge on a stretch featuring consecutive trips to Clemson and Virginia Tech, followed by a home date with Miami. If Nesbitt makes it to that point unscathed, Georgia Tech will have a chance to return to the Orange Bowl this year.