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ACC schedule quick take: Miami

Conference: Home --- Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia; Road --- Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Nonconference: Home --- Bethune-Cookman, Kansas State, Ohio State; Road --- South Florida

Bye: Week 2

Don’t play: Clemson, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Must-see: That Sept. 17 date with Ohio State would certainly qualify. It will be new coach Al Golden's home debut, and will come after the Hurricanes' lone bye week.

A favorable setup: Miami plays four of its final six at home (though attendance issues make you wonder whether that's a good thing). In any case, The U won't leave the Sunshine State after Oct. 15 --- unless it is for the ACC title game or a bowl.

And not so much: The flip side of that is Miami's first three league games are all on the road. The first two --- Maryland on Labor Day and Virginia Tech in early October --- are against legitimate conference title contenders. There are no early favors at the start of the Hurricanes' Golden age.

The full schedule:

Sept. 5: at Maryland, ESPN, 8
Sept. 17: Ohio State
Sept. 24: Kansas State

Oct. 1: Bethune-Cookman
Oct. 8: at Virginia Tech
Oct. 15: at North Carolina
Oct. 22: Georgia Tech
Oct. 27: Virginia, ESPN, 8

Nov. 5: Duke
Nov. 12: at Florida State
Nov. 19: at South Florida
Nov. 26: Boston College

An extra word on Miami, Randy Shannon and the absence of national title contention

Miami's decision to jettison Randy Shannon set off an interesting set of reactions throughout the country.

There was one quarter who believed the Hurricanes' administration was acting hypocritically for firing a coach who had accomplished one of his primary missions --- cleaning up the program and restoring respectability.

There were about three quarters who dismissed a 28-22 record (including 0-3 in bowl games) and a two-game step back from a season ago as not nearly good enough for The U.

While the real answer is somewhere in the middle --- I'm not sure anyone ever got the sense they were watching a master tactician at work during Miami games the last four seasons, but no one would accuse Miami of investing as heavily in its program as other schools that attempt to claim elite status.

So Shannon's gone. In an attempt to look at this from the highest possible standard (not saying it's the right standard), let's assume national championships are the only thing that matters for the Hurricanes.

Now let's look at every coach who won a share of the national title (AP or coaches poll or BCS) for the first time at his respective school since 1985:

Year	Coach/School	Season	1st Top 10	Season
1987	Jimmy Johnson, Miami	4th	1985	2nd
1988	Lou Holtz, Notre Dame	3rd	1988	3rd
1989	Dennis Erickson, Miami	1st	1989	1st
1990	Bill McCartney, Colorado	9th	1989	8th
1990	Bobby Ross, Georgia Tech	4th	1990	4th
1991	Don James, Washington	17th	1981	7th
1992	Gene Stallings, Alabama	3rd	1991	2nd
1993	Bobby Bowden, Florida St.	18th	1979	4th
1994	Tom Osborne, Nebraska	22nd	1973	1st
1996	Steve Spurrier, Florida	7th	1991	2nd
1997	Lloyd Carr, Michigan	3rd	1997	3rd
1998	Phil Fulmer, Tennessee	6th (full)	1995	3rd
2000	Bob Stoops, Oklahoma	2nd	2000	2nd
2001	Larry Coker, The U	1st	2001	1st
2002	Jim Tressel, Ohio State	2nd	2002	2nd
2003	Nick Saban, LSU	4th	2001	2nd
2003	Pete Carroll, USC	3rd	2002	2nd
2005	Mack Brown, Texas	8th	2000	3rd
2006	Urban Meyer, Florida	2nd	2006	2nd
2007	Les Miles, LSU	3rd	2005	1st
2009	Nick Saban, Alabama	3rd	2008	2nd

OK, so no coach in the last 18 years has collected his first national title without cracking the top 10 within his first four years on the job. Every first-time national championship coach since 1994 finished in the top 10 within his first three years.

Oh, and eight of the last nine first-time winners collected their titles within their first four seasons.

In four years, Shannon peaked at No. 19 in 2009.

Shannon banned his players from Twitter and didn't let reporters talk to his quarterbacks for much of this season, the sort of autocratic ploys some successful coaches have used over the years. But there wasn't nearly as much bite on the field --- and if history is any guide, chances were it probably wasn't going to happen at any stage.

This is not to say national title-or-bust is the best standard to use. But if that's what Miami supporters want to utilize, they're correct in arguing a restoration to national title glory almost certainly wasn't happening under the just-deposed regime.

Maryland stats wrap: Miami

Running down the numbers from Maryland's 26-20 loss at Miami ...

TOUCHES (RUNS + CATCHES)

Player	MIA	Season
Da'Rel Scott	10	98
Davin Meggett	9	97
Torrey Smith	3	41
D.J. Adams	---	29
Adrian Cannon	1	24
Ronnie Tyler	2	14
Kevin Dorsey	3	10
Matt Furstenburg	---	10
Quintin McCree	1	10
Mike Salvatico	---	9
Kerry Boykins	---	5
Taylor Watson	2	5
Dave Stinebaugh	INJ	4
Haroon Brown	---	3
LaQuan Williams	---	3
Will Yeatman	---	3
Gary Douglas	INJ	2
Tony Logan	---	2
Danny O'Brien	---	1

Reviewing the Miami game day predictions

Not a particularly good day with the predictions. Let's review:

1. Miami won't run for 100 yards. 

INCORRECT. The Hurricanes repeatedly burned Maryland on the perimeter, rushing for 218 yards by exploiting their greatest advantage --- speed and athleticism. Lamar Miller ran for 125 yards, and on 10 of the 20 runs he was tackled, it was a defensive back who had the initial hit.

2. This doesn't look like a day for the passing games, either.

CORRECT. There were more picks (three) than touchdown passes (two), and Miami's Stephen Morris was solid though unspectacular until the final drive. Maryland's Danny O'Brien was under pressure all day.

3. Maryland will try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half.

INCORRECT. Didn't happen. Maryland's lone second-half field goal was a 22-yarder Travis Baltz converted.

4. D.J. Adams will play in the first half.

CORRECT. You missed it if you blinked, but Adams was in for a play on first-and-goal when O'Brien threw to Haroon Brown. Still, Adams was not a factor in the offense.

5. Miami wins with a lot of help from its defense. 

SEMI-CORRECT. The Hurricanes did win, their lone interception denied Maryland in the red zone in the third quarter and they harassed O'Brien throughout the game. Miami's defense was good, but it wasn't over-the-top great. The Hurricanes needed to drive more than 60 yards for all but one of its scores --- a field goal drive that covered 43 yards in the third quarter.

An initial take on Maryland-Miami

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. --- A Miami-centric take on things from the Hurricanes' 26-20 defeat of Maryland, but sometimes you've got to chase a check.

More to come later after escaping a surprising frigid press box here at Sun Life Stadium.

Five game-day predictions: Maryland-Miami

Five forecasts for this afternoon's Maryland-Miami game at Sun Life Stadium ...

1. Miami won't run for 100 yards. Maryland has held four straight opponents to less than 100 yards rushing, and it can't be emphasized enough how much this unit has improved for the Terrapins. Take out the season opener against Navy, and Maryland is yielding 84.3 rushing yards a game --- which would rank fifth nationally. Yes, Damien Berry is out, but the Terps would be stacked up to stop the run even if he was playing. If Miami's offense is going to do damage, it will be forced to do so on the strength of Stephen Morris' arm.

2. This doesn't look like a day for the passing games, either. Morris is making his first career start. Miami has the top pass defense and pass efficiency defense in the country. But guess who's second coming into the week in pass efficiency defense? Yep, Maryland. The teams have combined to yield just 13 touchdown passes while intercepting 26 passes. There will be more picks than scoring strikes in this one.

3. Maryland will try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half. It's pretty amazing that for all of Maryland's kicking issues, it has bothered to try a field goal of more than 35 yards in the second half just once all season. That was in a decidedly non-pressure situation --- a 47-yarder to make it 48-0 against Morgan State.

And it's not like there have been many opportunities that were eschewed, either. A look at how long Maryland's field goal attempts would have been had they not gone for fourth downs within remotely possible field goal range (inside 55 yards):

40, up 55-3 vs. Morgan State (eventually got a TD)
44, down 28-14 at West Virginia (eventually got a FG)
50, up 28-21 vs. Florida International (eventually got a TD)
46, down 24-7 at Clemson (turned over on downs)
52, up 24-21 at Boston College (turned over on downs)
50, up 55-14 vs. Wake Forest (eventually got a TD)

Out of all those scenarios, the field goal might have made sense only against West Virginia (which is a stretch) and Florida International. The Terps are due for this sort of situation to pop up on them.

4. D.J. Adams will play in the first half. It's not that Davin Meggett (11.3 carries per game) or Da'Rel Scott (9.5 carries per game) are all that weary and banged up. But Adams is fresh, showed a lot against Wake Forest and is simply Maryland's best downhill runner. Maybe he can't pass protect effectively enough at this stage of his career, but he might be the Terps' best bet for a tough yard heading into the final month of the season.

5. Miami wins with a lot of help from its defense. The Hurricanes will be without Jacory Harris and Damien Berry, and yes, that will hurt. But Miami still has its defense, which is the key for it to win games even when its backfield is completely healthy. This will be the best defense Maryland faces all season, and certainly the one most capable of making Danny O'Brien look like a freshman (which no one, aside from Clemson in the final quarter, has managed to do so far). Whether it's through stingy play or perhaps a touchdown of its own, the Miami D will be the clear difference in a low-scoring, fairly tight game.

Miami's Shannon: "75 percent" chance Harris doesn't play

The prevailing storyline for Maryland's game Saturday at Miami still has nothing to do with the Terrapins and everything to do with Hurricanes quarterback Jacory Harris.

Miami coach Randy Shannon was about as open as possible on this morning's ACC teleconference about Harris, who suffered a concussion in last week's loss at Virginia.

"I really don't know the status of Jacory Harris," Shannon said. "It's probably 75 percent he will not be participating in this game."

Freshman Stephen Morris would start if Harris cannot play.

Shannon said Harris did not practice Tuesday and was unlikely to do so later today.

"Usually with me, I'm always 'If you don't practice by Wednesday, you're not going to start,'" Shannon said. "If it's Thursday and you don't practice, you're not going to play. It's 85 percent, 75 percent. I doubt if he plays this week."

That, in turn, begs the question of exactly what Maryland can expect to see out of Morris, who made his first career appearance last week in relief and threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in a 24-19 loss.

Morris --- who enrolled at Miami in the spring --- doesn't have the same level of mastery of Miami's offense that Harris possesses. But that won't necessarily mean a completely stripped down game plan, either.

"We're going to run plays that he knows and can execute," Shannon said. "It's not going to be 'Here's three passing concepts, learn those.' Or 'Here's the two running plays.' He's been getting a lot of work the last three weeks. We've got to figure out what he's comfortable with. ... We like what he's doing. We've got plays that we can run that we haven't seen and shown, which is going to be key for us."

Shannon also touched on a crucial truth about the Hurricanes this season: Their defense is really the bunch that creates headaches.

They forced turnovers at Clemson and shut down Pittsburgh on the road in two of their three best wins of the season. Miami (5-3, 3-2 ACC) also owns victories over North Carolina, Duke and Florida A&M.

"We are successful when our defense is playing really well," Shannon said. "[Saturday], we weren't able to touch the quarterback, didn't create turnovers and didn't take over the game in the second half on defense. We need to do a better job of that."

Terps prepping for both Jacory Harris, Stephen Morris

Miami coach Randy Shannon told reporters in Coral Gables today that quarterback Jacory Harris would "probably not" play Saturday against Maryland because of the effects of a concussion.

Back in College Park, Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen said all indications he heard were freshman Stephen Morris would likely start in place of Harris.

But ...

"I still think Harris will play," Friedgen said. "We just have to be ready to play against whoever they decide to play."

Harris was injured in Saturday's 24-19 loss at Virginia. Morris, a true freshman who made his debut as the Hurricanes' third quarterback, nearly rallied Miami back and would lijkely start if Harris can't play.

So does that impact Maryland? It would seem there won't be a massive difference, at least in terms of the practice work leading into Saturday.

"We're going to prepare no matter what," Maryland linebacker Alex Wujciak said. "They're not going to run a totall different offense with one guy in. It's not like one quarterback is Danny O'Brien and one quarterback is Jamaarr [Robinson]. They're very similar athletes and very similar skillsets. They'll probably limit the playbook if the freshman has to play, but I think Jacory Harris is going to play.

Maryland-Miami a noon kickoff on Saturday

The ACC (and, in all fairness, its TV partners) finally got around to announcing next Saturday's gametimes in the middle of this afternoon.

Maryland, which improved to 6-2 on Saturday with a 62-14 rout of Wake Forest, drew a noon kickoff against Miami at Sun Life Stadium.

The full conference slate:

Nov. 4

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, 7:30 (ESPN)

Nov. 6

N.C. State at Clemson, Noon (ACC Network/Raycom)
Maryland at Miami, Noon (ESPNU)
Virginia at Duke, Noon (ESPN3.com)
Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 (ESPN3.com)
North Carolina at Florida State, 3:30 (ABC regional)

 

Eve of the season ACC primer: Miami

(The second of 12 ACC team previews)

Is Miami back?

Can Miami be back this year?

Will Jacory Harris cut out the the throws to players in different colored jerseys?

All are important in trying to dissect the Hurricanes.

When we last saw them ... : The U was peeling itself off the mat after Wisconsin managed a healthy 430-249 yardage edge in the Champs Sports Bowl. The score was closer (20-14 for the Badgers), but it had the feel of a beatdown all the same.

Before that, though, Miami (along with Clemson) was one of the big losers in the bowl shuffle that allowed Bobby Bowden to play in the high-profile Gator Bowl in his final game at Florida State.

Despite those back-to-back blows, it was hard not to feel good about the Hurricanes' progress. The movement from five to seven to nine wins in coach Randy Shannon's three seasons suggested plenty of improvement --- not to mention distance from the program's talent drain at the tail end of Larry Coker's tenure.

Oh, and Miami was young. Note the use of the past tense. The Hurricanes return 15 starters, including punter/kicker Matt Bosher; six were freshmen or sophomores a year ago.

Biggest question: Can you say offensive line? Perhaps even moreso with just two starters back.

One of them isn't Jason Fox, a tackle who was one of the top linemen in the ACC the last two years.

But sometimes a little change can be good. Miami, after all, allowed 35 sacks last year. And while it isn't dreadful, it's an issue that led Jacory Harris to make some errant, off-the-cuff throws --- some of which led to the 17 interceptions Harris endured in his first year as a starter.

Still, Miami was one of only 15 teams in the six years since the ACC expanded to yield 35 sacks in a season (data courtesy of college football statistical overlord Phil Steele):

MOST SACKS ALLOWED, ACC TEAMS 2004-09

54: Virginia Tech 2007 (11-3)

45: Duke 2007 (1-11)

43: Duke 2006 (0-12)

42: Virginia Tech 2008 (10-4)

41: Virginia 2009 (3-9)

40: Maryland 2007 (6-7)

39: Duke 2004 (2-9)

37: North Carolina 2007 (4-8)

36: Virginia Tech 2004 (10-3)
36: Miami 2005 (9-3)
36: Maryland 2009 (2-10)

35: N.C. State 2005 (7-5)
35: Virginia 2006 (5-7)
35: Clemson 2007 (9-4)
35: Miami 2009 (9-4)

There's a lot of bad teams on that list, as well more than a few really good ones that happened to start statues under center. Some of those teams had both dreadful rosters and quarterbacks with feet stuck in cement.

But it's a stretch to give too much credit to any of the offensive lines listed above, even if they did possess some overwhelming talents on an individual level.

The good news is only one of those teams on that chart allowed more sacks the next year (Duke 2006-07). Miami should be better up front, but it's still a priority to get things sorted out.

Biggest asset: Options ... everywhere but quarterback. Miami is arguably the deepest team in the conference, a byproduct of improved recruiting, trial-by-fire experience and a wise effort to improve the defense considerable despite some coordinator flux during Shannon's tenure.

That seems to be fixed, and the Hurricanes will have the same man in charge of the defense (John Lovett) in consecutive years since Shannon was the coordinator between 2001 and 2006. Bringing back a wealth of experience, including two-year starter Allen Bailey on the line and cornerback Brandon Harris, will surely help.

But the offense is in great shape, too.

Consider: Miami returns six players who had at least 15 catches last year (after having nine total). In the rest of the ACC, only Duke, which barely showed much interest or ability in the running game, even had six guys with 15 receptions.

The fulcrum, however, is Harris. There are no knowns behind him; among the reserves, only A.J. Highsmith (4-for-6, 53 yards, 1 TD) has any stats to speak of. Harris completed nearly 60 percent of his passes as a sophomore, and his 24 touchdowns were spread over 10 receivers. Bad for fantasy football players, good as a sign Harris can pick out the right target if given time.

He'll again have plenty of options to choose from, between the Leonard Hankerson-led receiving corps, a deep posse of tailbacks and newcomer Chase Ford at tight end. Harris needs to make it through the season healthy for Miami to have a chance at truly big things, but he'll have a ton of help if he can stay upright.

Best-case: Miami picks off Ohio State on the road in the season's second week, handles the slingshot into the top 10 without any trouble and rumbles through a daunting schedule with perhaps only a hiccup along the way. The Hurricanes play six teams ranked in the preseason top 25, so one misstep can be expected even under the most favorable conditions. But the right mix of victories (and then solid performances from the teams it beats) could have Miami on the edge of the national title game discussion come the first week of December.

Worst-case: The Hurricanes don't take the step they feel it is time to make, getting run out of Columbus and returning to their up-and-down ways. The offensive line isn't better, Harris still throws a bunch of picks and Miami is erratic enough to be 4-3 by the time North Carolina leaves town on Oct. 23. At that point, the lights can be turned out, since fickle fans in south Florida will turn their eyes to the LeBron Show set to debut late that month and ignore the Hurricanes in the second half of league play.

Where we'll see them in three months: It's nice to dream about a national title, but that schedule says it isn't happening. Not this year.

In 1983, Miami played two teams in the regular season that opened the year ranked. In 1987, it was four teams. In 1989, three; in 1991, three; and in 2001 it was three.

The tired old chestnut of beating the best to be the best? That's best done in moderation. Facing a half-dozen teams ranked in the preseason is a ticket to a few setbacks.

As it stands, Miami owns potentially top-10 talent with far too many opportunities to lose against strong teams to wind up in the top five at season's end. If the ACC wants a team that can chase down a national championship this year, the Hurricanes aren't it.

But they'll be vastly entertaining and incredibly unpredictable. The three straight road trips to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson will probably net a win (and maybe two), but good luck guessing which games Miami will actually win.

At their best, they'll be the scariest Miami team since 2002. At its worst, The U will be vulnerable to more than half the teams on its schedule.

Shannon's made progress every year, and a division title (and maybe a conference title) could be within reach. The best guess is a 10-win season that includes Miami's first bowl victory since Coker's farewell on the blue turf of Boise in 2006.

Is that enough? Maybe not for the titles-or-else crowd. But Shannon's built in Coral Gables with the long-term in mind, and the Hurricanes keep improving. There will be progress again, even if the schedule won't make it particularly easy.