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ACC schedule quick take: North Carolina

Conference: Home --- Duke, Miami, Virginia, Wake Forest; Road --- Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Nonconference: Home --- James Madison, Louisville, Rutgers; Road --- East Carolina

Bye: Week 11

Don’t play: Boston College, Florida State, Maryland

Must-see: In terms of home games, the visit from Miami is the clear jewel. But the late Thursday night jaunt to Blacksburg should be a treat as well.

A favorable setup: The home schedule is, shall we say, accommodating. Even if North Carolina takes a step back after some significant losses, the conference's three worst teams from a year ago visit Chapel Hill. And Carolina is the Coastal Division's answer to Florida State, avoiding the top two Atlantic contenders after wrapping up a home-and-home with the Seminoles last year.

And not so much: There isn't much for North Carolina to be upset about. It gets an extra five days to prepare for the best team on its schedule, opens with three eminently winnable games and at only one point does it play three of four on the road. One thing that does stand out as a quirk is facing Georgia Tech's triple option and East Carolina's pass-happy systems in consecutive weeks.

The full schedule:

Sept. 3: James Madison
Sept. 10: Rutgers
Sept. 17: Virginia
Sept. 24: at Georgia Tech

Oct. 1: at East Carolina
Oct. 8: Louisville
Oct. 15: Miami
Oct. 22: at Clemson
Oct. 29: Wake Forest

Nov. 5: at N.C. State
Nov. 17: at Virginia Tech, ESPN, 8
Nov. 26: Duke

Harrison Barnes' late-game scoring surges are a very real new development

Never let it be said I don't take requests.

Less than an hour ago --- roughly two minutes after North Carolina freshman Harrison Barnes got done shredding Miami in the closing minutes --- Raleigh radio host Joe Ovies asked just how effective Barnes has been in late-game situations.

So, here you go. The forward's work (in the final five minutes of games and overall) is included after the jump.

Eve of the season ACC primer: North Carolina

(The 10th of 12 ACC team previews)

North Carolina, meet Icarus. Or something like that.

Unlike every other team in the ACC (and, perhaps other than Southern California, in the country), the story of North Carolina's football season is already written. Virtually nothing short of a conference title is going to change how the Tar Heels of 2010 are viewed.

It all comes down to suspensions, be they for NCAA violations or academic improprieties. Marvin Austin is already suspended indefinitely, and while North Carolina isn't saying much about the status of many of its plethora of defensive stars beyond tonight's opening loss game against Louisiana State, that time will come soon enough.

(This is the point where it's worth noting it was a good thing this preview was toward the tail end of the rundowns).

The roster flux makes North Carolina a tricky team to really decipher. No, the Tar Heels' defense won't be overwhelmingly good. And yes, T.J. Yates remains at the helm of an offense that's still crawling four years into coach Butch Davis' tenure.

There's still some talent there, though, and presumably a sliver of pride for the guys who will trudge through the next dozen games without some high-profile teammates along for the ride. Coming close to thriving in this crucible, it would seem, would be a great test of Davis' coaching acumen.

Or it could act as an exposing agent. Davis is 7-13 in games decided by a touchdown or less since arriving in Chapel Hill, 3-10 in contests decided by less than a field goal.

His control of the program off the field is already under scrutiny. Things could look really bad if the Tar Heels wind up losing their share of 16-13 slapfights to borderline bowl teams.

When we last saw them ... : The Tar Heels had turned a promising 8-3 start into a sour finish. They closed with one-point losses to N.C. State and Pittsburgh, and fell from a possible trip to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to a return engagement in Charlotte against a Big East contender.

The greater news came in the days after the bowl loss. One by one, the Tar Heels' defensive stars opted to return to Chapel Hill, thereby ensuring more buzz for the program than at any point since Mack Brown left for Texas.

Austin. Robert Quinn. Bruce Carter. Deunta Williams. Kendric Burney. Quan Sturdivant. All at least possibilities to go in the first 40 or so picks of the NFL Draft. All sticking around (though Quinn, as a rising true junior, didn't have much of a choice).

It all seemed too good to be true. Now, it appears, it was.

Biggest question: Responding to adversity. Know all those platitudes coaches love to harp on, like character and toughness? Well, Davis better hope the players who aren't ensnared in the program's eligibility issues bring the good sort of intangibles every week.

The Louisiana State-Georgia Tech-Rutgers combination to start the season carried the possibility of an 0-3 start even with a loaded defense. It wouldn't have been smart to bet on that happening, but it certainly could have. Clemson and Miami lurk in October, Florida State and Virginia Tech in November.

If things turn into a pity party, there could be some ugly afternoons at Kenan Stadium.

Biggest asset: Linebackers. It would seem that's the one part of the defense that won't be eviscerated. Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter were cleared to play in the opener yesterday, and they'll join Kevin Reddick as one of the league's, if not the country's, most formidable linebacker corps.

That's probably not going to lend a lot of solace to North Carolina fans. But at least the middle of the field should be in capable hands as planned.

Best case: Well, the perfect scenario is Davis finds a magic lamp with a genie, and he's able to able to wish away his problems in a blink of an eye.

Since that won't happen, the Tar Heels' ideal situation is that somehow they get everyone back except for Austin at some point. OK, that's probably asking for magic, too.

All right, a serious answer. North Carolina gets some of its stars back eventually, and at least avoids losing a game or two it shouldn't. The Tar Heels develop a plucky streak and salvage something out of a possible disaster and win seven games and find themselves in Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

Worst case: The state of affairs is downgraded from dreadful to apocalyptic. More misbehavior and rules violations are uncovered, turning the program into an even greater punchline.

The Tar Heels lose their first three, then watch any semblance of self-belief vanish when they fall to woeful Virginia in Charlottesville. By that point, basketball practice will have started, and fans will happily turn their attention away from a pigskin paradise lost.

Davis is ultimately shown the door when the accumulated problems take on too much weight. Maybe it happens before Carolina limps home at 3-9 or 4-8, but scandal plus losing usually equals coaching change.

Where we'll see them in three months: The hopes for an ACC title are probably already dead, though that was going to be a tough sell with a limited offense (even with Greg Little) and a residence in the conference's toughest division.

At this stage, there are three answers still to be found.

One, what is the depth of Carolina's conundrum? With Austin getting subpoenaed by the state's secretary of state yesterday, it's tough to tell what rock bottom is.

Two, is there enough talent in reserve to still make something of this year? North Carolina's defensive second-teamers probably aren't a dreadful bunch, even if only the recruitniks have really heard of them. On an individual level, the Tar Heels' biggest loss in the opener might just be Little. There are still winnable games, even with the pieces that are leftover (and the possibility some more guys will eventually be back).

Three, does Davis survive this storm? Put another way, at what point is it worth holding onto an expensive 20-18 coach who wins only a third of his one-possession games and took over a bumbling on-field product and turned it into a heavily scrutinized program for its decisions away from the game.

There's so much still to be determined. Who gets cleared? And when? What new revelations are still lurking? And, in actual football matters, does Yates have the ability to cut down on his interceptions and play a smarter game when he clearly is going to have to do more than anticipated if North Carolina is to enjoy a good season?

There was 10-win talk from some corners throughout the offseason. Now, 6-6 territory sounds about right. The Tar Heels could be interesting from time to time, but their foibles have cut a team from a four-horse race in the Coastal Division before the first kickoff and stained an athletic department proud of its record of following the rules. 

That will be this team's epitaph, and it can be chiseled into granite already. This year will bring more setbacks than expected on the field. The Tar Heels can only hope to cut their losses as much as possible off the field going forward.

D1scourse Half-Dozen: Non-QBs/RBs who could win the Heisman

If a quarterback or running back probably needs to be on a top-10 team to have a shot at the Heisman, then it's a absolute necessity for someone playing a position that doesn't consistently produce contenders for the award.

Those would be anyone who isn't a quarterback or a running back. Since 1950, only three non-QBs and non-RBs won the Heisman (Tim Brown, Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson).

So, really, it's unlikely any of these guys will win the Heisman. But if there's to be a surprise candidacy, it could easily come from this list. And remember, this is not a ranking of talent or quality, but merely the chances a player can blend skill, stats and team success well enough to wind up on the Heisman radar.

1. WR Julio Jones, Alabama. He'll be on a high-profile team and most voters already know who he is. Who cares if he only had 596 yards receiving last year? If he has a breakout season, he could easily be the most notable receiver in the Heisman race. The best in the SEC? That would be. ...

2. WR A.J. Green, Georgia. Green will be at the mercy of another new starting quarterback in Athens, so that's a bit of a concern. But he'll be one of the focal points of the Bulldogs' offense, and should Georgia make a run to an SEC title (not impossible with Florida losing so much), he could be in the Heisman discussion.

3. DT Jared Crick, Nebraska. Thanks to former teammate Ndamukong Suh, folks might actually pay attention to Nebraska's defensive players from the start of the season this year. That means Crick, who had 9.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss to go with 73 overall tackles, could receive some Heisman hype if the Blackshirts continue their revival in Lincoln this fall and make a run at an unbeaten season.

4. WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma. Educated guess: Broyles will have the most statistically imposing season of any wideout. He had 1,120 yards and 15 touchdowns a season ago, and with quarterback Landry Jones a year older, Broyles could be on the receiving end of the most lethal pitch-and-catch combo in the country. If Oklahoma does contend for a national title, either Broyles or Jones could be touted for the Heisman; should Broyles match his 89 receptions from last year, here's betting he's the guy who generates attention.

5. DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina. So many Tar Heels to consider. Quinn, with his 11 sacks a year ago, is probably a better bet ahead of Bruce Carter, Quan Sturdivant or Deunta Williams. At the very least, consider him the preseason favorite for ACC defensive player of the year.

6. WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh. If the Panthers air it out more with a new quarterback, Baldwin could benefit.  He had 1,111 yards and eight touchdowns last year, but teammate Dion Lewis will probably run his way into the discussion before Baldwin. Nonetheless, he's a guy to watch if the Panthers can beat Utah and Miami early and then make a run at a Big East crown.

Six more also considered: LB Bruce Carter, North Carolina, DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa, WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame, LB Greg Jones, Michigan State, WR/KR James Rodgers, Oregon State, WR/KR Titus Young, Boise State

Coming tomorrow: Half-dozen nonconference games more than worth the price of admission

This photo will not be on Butch Davis' Christmas cards

GREENSBORO, N.C. --- If there's someone who is probably not enjoying himself today at the ACC Kickoff, it's North Carolina coach Butch Davis.

Wonder why? Take a peek.

He's been fielding questions behind this scrum of reporters for the last half-hour or so. Understand, he's sitting at a round table, so there's plenty more writers than you can see. Davis is actually on the far side of this, too.

Davis established early there would be a lot of no-comment comments. That's fine. But he's still going to get more attention than any other coach at this event.

College football countdown: Nos. 16-20

Down to the top 20 on the countdown. Time to unveil many of everyone else's chic picks that just aren't entirely trustworthy for a full season.

No. 20 ARKANSAS

Everyone seems to love the Hogs, and to some extent it is understandable. Quarterback Ryan Mallett (30 touchdowns, seven interceptions) has a bit to do with that, but he also returns much of his help.

So let's agree for a moment the Razorbacks are going to be fun to watch on offense. Heck, with Tim Tebow off to the NFL, Arkansas might even possess the most explosive team in the SEC.

But two very troublesome, very unavoidable things stand out.

First, the Razorbacks aren't going to replicate their gaudy +15 turnover margin. They just aren't. It might be on the positive side, but it won't be that favorable over the course of another season unless the Hogs are really lucky. And the regression to the mean will not only nullify some of Arkansas' improvement, but also create greater issues for a defense that yielded more than 400 yards a game last season (easily the worst in the SEC).

Second, the early gauntlet remains, even if it isn't quite so scary. Florida rotates off the schedule and Mississippi isn't quite so strong, but playing Georgia (road), Alabama (home), Texas A&M (in Jerry Land) and Auburn (road) in succession in the first half of the season could easily send the Razorbacks tumbling from the top 25.

So, yes, Arkansas will be better. It just might not be enough to do much better than 8-4 or 9-3.

No. 19 AUBURN

A lot sets up swimmingly for the Tigers, who may not really be better than Arkansas or Louisiana State but certainly don't face as difficult a road to 10 wins as their SEC West brethren.

First of all, both of those teams have to visit the Plains. And so do Arkansas State, Clemson, Louisiana-Monroe and Chattanooga.

That's right, Auburn is sticking to its recent game plan of staying at home as much as possible. Since 2004, the Tigers have played just one nonconference road game (a 34-17 loss at West Virginia in 2008).

Heck, even Alabama played Clemson in Atlanta two years ago (and is visiting Duke this year).

In any case, the Tigers are good enough on offense and talented enough (if not effective enough) on defense to have a prayer at getting to 11-0. There are SEC trips to Mississippi State, Kentucky and Mississippi --- hardly automatic wins, but better than trips to the Swamp and Death Valley --- and a lot of home cooking before an Iron Bowl trip to Tuscaloosa.

This isn't a prediction Auburn cracks the top 10 and has a chance to win the SEC entering Thanksgiving weekend; a defense that gave up 30 points on seven occasions last year would make that borderline nuts. But there would be more surprising outcomes this season than a stealthy BCS push by the Tigers.

No. 18 MIAMI

Here's the moment of truth: Does anyone really trust Miami to become a consistent team?

This isn't the sort of question along the lines of "Does anyone think the Hurricanes won't get shut out by Virginia?" Miami's moved past that sort of problem, and it absolutely must be viewed as a top-20 team going forward.

This is a bunch that beat Oklahoma hammered Georgia Tech and pulled out a stirring opening week defeat of Florida State. It also flopped at Virginia Tech and North Carolina and nearly got stung at Wake Forest.

Jacory Harris can be one of the nation's top quarterbacks. He can also be a complete wreck, depending on the day. Those 17 interceptions don't just throw themselves.

The defense is good. Not vintage The U good, but that's an absurd standard. It should still be better this fall than it was a year ago.

And so it's time to return to the original point. Can Miami be trusted to be a top-10 team all the time? The guess here is not quite yet. There will be nights when the Hurricanes look invincible, and there are a couple national title contenders (Ohio State, Virginia Tech) that had better hope it doesn't come at their expense.

But that wasn't an every-week occurrence for Miami last fall. Until proven otherwise, it's best not to count on it being the case now, either.

No. 17 NORTH CAROLINA

The Tar Heels will be fine on defense, what with a unit stocked with future pros and solid enough special teams.

But the offense ... oh dear.

Yes, 10 starters are back, but they're part of a unit that ranked in the bottom 10 percent nationally in total yardage and the ACC's third-worst passing attack (behind Georgia Tech's option-scheme and whatever snarky moniker you wish to provide to Virginia's attempt to throw the ball last year).

In particular, there's the question of whether T.J. Yates is a good enough quarterback to lead a team to a championship. It's a great curiosity, and it has to be one of the top questions on the minds of Tar Heels fans --- beyond, of course, (a) Is Harrison Barnes a hardwood deity; (b) Did John Henson add any muscle this offseason; and (c) What nuggets of wisdom did Roy Williams get from his massage therapist lately?

OK, enough with poking fun at Carolina as a hoops school. Its football --- a sleeping giant since Mack Brown departed for Texas --- should be good this fall. But what exactly does it take at quarterback to win the ACC.

Let's cue up the last 10 years:

QUARTERBACKS ON ACC CHAMPS, 2000-09

Year	QB	C-A (Pct.)	Yards	TD	INT
2000	Chris Weinke	266-431 (61.7)	4167	33	11
2001	Shaun Hill	197-329 (59.9)	2380	13	9
2002	Chris Rix	118-225 (52.4)	1684	13	7
2003	Chris Rix	216-382 (56.5)	3107	23	13
2004	Bryan Randall	170-306 (55.6)	2264	21	9
2005	Drew Weatherford	276-469 (58.8)	3208	18	18
2006	Riley Skinner	171-260 (65.8)	2051	9	5
2007	Sean Glennon	143-235 (60.9)	1796	12	5
2008	Tyrod Taylor	99-173 (57.2)	1036	2	7
2009	Josh Nesbitt	75-162 (46.3)	1701	10	5

It's funny. Yates' completion percentage from a season ago would rank fourth on that list. His yardage trumps half of those guys. His touchdown total was more than the last four title winning QBs. And his interception total ... well, that's better left untouched.

(It's also crucial to mention Taylor had 738 yards and seven touchdowns rushing in '08, while Nesbitt had 1,037 yards and 18 TDs on the ground last year).

The overall point here is Yates isn't a massive outlier among guys who have hauled home a conference title of late, which might surprise Carolina fans.

Sure, he probably won't be an NFL star (who on that list above was) and he still needs to get better --- cutting down on those 15 interceptions would be a nice start. But Carolina's offensive problems can't all be pinned on him, and the Tar Heels need to improve everywhere as a unit and not just under center. If that happens, Butch Davis' team might not just be a trendy pick. It could be an accurate one.

No. 16 GEORGIA TECH

With Paul Johnson running the offense and former Virginia coach Al Groh handling the defense, the Yellow Jackets are virtually certain to lead the league in hubris. Both are extremely intelligent guys when it comes to their profession, both can maximize the production of their units among the best in their business and they're both keenly aware of their knowledge and abilities.

There's also a better chance than most realize that the Yellow Jackets lead the league in wins, too.

Georgia Tech is the rare situation where turnover in offensive linemen is actually a good thing. Johnson is slowly but surely working his preferred sort of blocker --- quick and agile over slow and plodding --- into the mix. And don't worry much about Jonathan Dwyer's departure; the Yellow Jackets will simply plug-n-play Anthony Allen, who averaged 9.7 yards a carry a season ago.

There are some questions on defense, but Groh can usually coach up players as well as anyone. One telling thing about Virginia teams of the last decade --- even the bad ones in recent years --- is they never quit on Groh. That said, he'll probably be pretty happy to coach the defense of a team that held the ball for 33:49 a game last season. Coordinating the defense is a bit easier when the offense keeps you off the field.

Ultimately, it will be Josh Nesbitt (and his ability to stay on the field) that determines whether this projection is too optimistic. While running backs are particularly disposable in Johnson's system, effective quarterbacks are not.

The Yellow Jackets' season will hinge on a stretch featuring consecutive trips to Clemson and Virginia Tech, followed by a home date with Miami. If Nesbitt makes it to that point unscathed, Georgia Tech will have a chance to return to the Orange Bowl this year.