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Eve of the season ACC primer: Duke

(The 11th of 12 ACC team previews)

The best thing that's happened to Duke football in the post-Steve Spurrier era occurred on a winter day more than a month after the Blue Devils wrapped up a 5-7 season and weeks before they would start spring practice.

David Cutcliffe stayed at Duke rather than depart for the open gig at Tennessee.

Sure, Fred Goldsmith had a fantastic debut in 1994. But there is perilously little in the last 20 years to suggest the Blue Devils can amount to anything.

In that light, Cutcliffe sticking around is a remarkable vote of confidence and a reflection he really believes he can complete an overhaul of a woebegone program in the near future.

Maybe it won't happen this year. But after the progress of the last two seasons, it certainly looks likely.

The fact Cutcliffe blends savvy, wit, honesty, humor and charm into one package helps immensely. Duke's coach needs a lot of things to be relevant. Personality is one of the big ones, and Cutcliffe has it in spades.

That might not directly win games. But it will help sell --- both with recruits and the public.

Winning, of course, is the best elixir. The 9-15 record doesn't seem like much, but Cutcliffe has already managed more victories than each of his two predecessors did in more than twice as much time. At the very least, it's a start.

When we last saw them ... : The Blue Devils were busy going 0-for-November, falling from 5-3 to 5-7 to extend their postseason drought to 15 years.

Worse yet, Duke had to say goodbye to Thaddeus Lewis, a four-year starter and the school record-holder in total offense, passing yards and completions. Lewis, already an underrated commodity prior to Cutcliffe's arrival, blossomed into a sold (if overlooked) quarterback in two years in the former Ole Miss coach's system.

Although the final month didn't go well, the season still constituted progress for Duke. While Cutcliffe and his players wanted more, the Blue Devils did win three conference games. In the previous nine years, they had managed four league wins.

Biggest question: The easy answer is quarterback, where Sean Renfree will step in for the departed Lewis. But more realistically, Duke needs to figure out how to run the ball after managing a meager 63.5 rushing yards a game last season and also plug some holes on a defensive line that could turn out to be a bit balky.

It was during the spring that Cutcliffe wryly noted that quarterback, offensive line and defensive line were all questions facing his team. That's never a good formula for winning. But should the Blue Devils actually manage to develop a second dimension to their offense with sophomore tailback Desmond Scott and also hold up as a defensive front, their biggest issues will be handled.

Biggest asset: Receivers. Between Donovan Varner, Conner Vernon and Austin Kelly, there is not a dearth of capable targets in the passing game. All three guys hauled in at least 55 receptions --- or more than 4.5 a game.

That's going to make Renfree's adjustment to starting infinitely easier. Of course, he still needs to make the right decisions, but with Cutcliffe nurturing the preparation and plenty of options to choose from on the field, Renfree couldn't be stepping into a much better situation --- at least for that part of the offense, anyway.

Best case: Duke goes 3-1 in nonconference play, then poaches Wake Forest and Maryland on the road and somehow snags another victory (North Carolina?) to get to 6-6. Likely? Probably not this year. But a Duke fan can say with a straight face there's hope of going to a bowl game and not face accusations of being delusional. That's progress.

Worst case: Neither line is particularly good and Renfree struggles, in the process demonstrating just how good Lewis really was. The Blue Devils knock off Elon and Army like they should and maybe snag a conference victory, but overall it's a step backward as Cutcliffe continues to bring reinforcements into a growing program.

A 3-9 season wouldn't be dreadful by Duke standards, nor would it derail Cutcliffe's long-term plans. It also would siphon away some of the increased attention the Blue Devils have earned.

Where they'll be in three months: It's tough to see Duke in a bowl game. The Coastal Division includes three superior teams (Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech) and it's downright impossible to imagine the Blue Devils seriously testing Alabama.

So, can Duke win six of its other eight games? Probably not.

But the days of assuming the Blue Devils won't be a nuisance to anyone are through. North Carolina and Virginia, both of which visit Durham, could be vulnerable. Same goes for Maryland and Wake Forest, which will meet Duke on their respective home fields.

The tenor of the season hinges so much upon how Renfree fares. If he can play at close to Lewis' level, Duke will again have one of the ACC's top passing offenses. If he struggles, it will be nearly impossible to imagine Duke winning more than a few games.

The most likely scenario is a modest step back to 4-8. It's an understandable projection, given the exact holes Duke must fill. But Cutcliffe's already raised eyebrows this year for remaining in a coaching graveyard rather than leave for a school that's won a national title in the last 15 years. No one should put it past him from helping to uncork another surprise.

Eve of the season ACC primer: North Carolina

(The 10th of 12 ACC team previews)

North Carolina, meet Icarus. Or something like that.

Unlike every other team in the ACC (and, perhaps other than Southern California, in the country), the story of North Carolina's football season is already written. Virtually nothing short of a conference title is going to change how the Tar Heels of 2010 are viewed.

It all comes down to suspensions, be they for NCAA violations or academic improprieties. Marvin Austin is already suspended indefinitely, and while North Carolina isn't saying much about the status of many of its plethora of defensive stars beyond tonight's opening loss game against Louisiana State, that time will come soon enough.

(This is the point where it's worth noting it was a good thing this preview was toward the tail end of the rundowns).

The roster flux makes North Carolina a tricky team to really decipher. No, the Tar Heels' defense won't be overwhelmingly good. And yes, T.J. Yates remains at the helm of an offense that's still crawling four years into coach Butch Davis' tenure.

There's still some talent there, though, and presumably a sliver of pride for the guys who will trudge through the next dozen games without some high-profile teammates along for the ride. Coming close to thriving in this crucible, it would seem, would be a great test of Davis' coaching acumen.

Or it could act as an exposing agent. Davis is 7-13 in games decided by a touchdown or less since arriving in Chapel Hill, 3-10 in contests decided by less than a field goal.

His control of the program off the field is already under scrutiny. Things could look really bad if the Tar Heels wind up losing their share of 16-13 slapfights to borderline bowl teams.

When we last saw them ... : The Tar Heels had turned a promising 8-3 start into a sour finish. They closed with one-point losses to N.C. State and Pittsburgh, and fell from a possible trip to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to a return engagement in Charlotte against a Big East contender.

The greater news came in the days after the bowl loss. One by one, the Tar Heels' defensive stars opted to return to Chapel Hill, thereby ensuring more buzz for the program than at any point since Mack Brown left for Texas.

Austin. Robert Quinn. Bruce Carter. Deunta Williams. Kendric Burney. Quan Sturdivant. All at least possibilities to go in the first 40 or so picks of the NFL Draft. All sticking around (though Quinn, as a rising true junior, didn't have much of a choice).

It all seemed too good to be true. Now, it appears, it was.

Biggest question: Responding to adversity. Know all those platitudes coaches love to harp on, like character and toughness? Well, Davis better hope the players who aren't ensnared in the program's eligibility issues bring the good sort of intangibles every week.

The Louisiana State-Georgia Tech-Rutgers combination to start the season carried the possibility of an 0-3 start even with a loaded defense. It wouldn't have been smart to bet on that happening, but it certainly could have. Clemson and Miami lurk in October, Florida State and Virginia Tech in November.

If things turn into a pity party, there could be some ugly afternoons at Kenan Stadium.

Biggest asset: Linebackers. It would seem that's the one part of the defense that won't be eviscerated. Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter were cleared to play in the opener yesterday, and they'll join Kevin Reddick as one of the league's, if not the country's, most formidable linebacker corps.

That's probably not going to lend a lot of solace to North Carolina fans. But at least the middle of the field should be in capable hands as planned.

Best case: Well, the perfect scenario is Davis finds a magic lamp with a genie, and he's able to able to wish away his problems in a blink of an eye.

Since that won't happen, the Tar Heels' ideal situation is that somehow they get everyone back except for Austin at some point. OK, that's probably asking for magic, too.

All right, a serious answer. North Carolina gets some of its stars back eventually, and at least avoids losing a game or two it shouldn't. The Tar Heels develop a plucky streak and salvage something out of a possible disaster and win seven games and find themselves in Nashville for the Music City Bowl.

Worst case: The state of affairs is downgraded from dreadful to apocalyptic. More misbehavior and rules violations are uncovered, turning the program into an even greater punchline.

The Tar Heels lose their first three, then watch any semblance of self-belief vanish when they fall to woeful Virginia in Charlottesville. By that point, basketball practice will have started, and fans will happily turn their attention away from a pigskin paradise lost.

Davis is ultimately shown the door when the accumulated problems take on too much weight. Maybe it happens before Carolina limps home at 3-9 or 4-8, but scandal plus losing usually equals coaching change.

Where we'll see them in three months: The hopes for an ACC title are probably already dead, though that was going to be a tough sell with a limited offense (even with Greg Little) and a residence in the conference's toughest division.

At this stage, there are three answers still to be found.

One, what is the depth of Carolina's conundrum? With Austin getting subpoenaed by the state's secretary of state yesterday, it's tough to tell what rock bottom is.

Two, is there enough talent in reserve to still make something of this year? North Carolina's defensive second-teamers probably aren't a dreadful bunch, even if only the recruitniks have really heard of them. On an individual level, the Tar Heels' biggest loss in the opener might just be Little. There are still winnable games, even with the pieces that are leftover (and the possibility some more guys will eventually be back).

Three, does Davis survive this storm? Put another way, at what point is it worth holding onto an expensive 20-18 coach who wins only a third of his one-possession games and took over a bumbling on-field product and turned it into a heavily scrutinized program for its decisions away from the game.

There's so much still to be determined. Who gets cleared? And when? What new revelations are still lurking? And, in actual football matters, does Yates have the ability to cut down on his interceptions and play a smarter game when he clearly is going to have to do more than anticipated if North Carolina is to enjoy a good season?

There was 10-win talk from some corners throughout the offseason. Now, 6-6 territory sounds about right. The Tar Heels could be interesting from time to time, but their foibles have cut a team from a four-horse race in the Coastal Division before the first kickoff and stained an athletic department proud of its record of following the rules. 

That will be this team's epitaph, and it can be chiseled into granite already. This year will bring more setbacks than expected on the field. The Tar Heels can only hope to cut their losses as much as possible off the field going forward.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Virginia Tech

(The ninth of 12 ACC team previews)

How you start isn't as important as how you finish --- unless, of course, you finish about where you start.

That's the story of Virginia Tech's time in the ACC, when the Hokies have demonstrated a remarkable level of consistency (at least 10 wins in six straight seasons) and a proclivity for hitting expectations almost on the noggin.

To wit:

VIRGINIA TECH STARTING AND FINAL AP RANKINGS, 2005-2009

Year	Start	Finish	Net
2005	8	7	+1
2006	17	19	-2
2007	9	9	0
2008	17	15	+2
2009	7	10	-3
Avg.	11.6	12.0	-0.4

So, with this data in hand and the knowledge Virginia Tech opens its season Monday against Boise State as the nation's No. 10 team, there doesn't seem to be much reason to doubt the Hokies belong (and probably will wind up) somewhere in that neighborhood at season's end.

The next question, naturally, is whether Virginia Tech fans --- whipped into a frenzy thanks to a senior quarterback, more running backs than the team really knows what to do with and the continued presence of a magician in the defensive coordinator spot --- would be disappointed with winding up in roughly the same place as the journey began.

A No. 10 final ranking would probably mean there will be a couple losses to go with another double-digit win season. Heck, the Hokies lost three times last year and wound up in that spot.

It could be a telling year in Blacksburg. Not because the Hokies start in the top 10; that's obviously nothing new. But Virginia Tech had a top-50 offense last year for the first time since 2003, so fans have reason to dream of a unit that can achieve something a little more than adequacy.

If it doesn't, there still might be a sheen of disappointment if the Hokies meet expectations and little else.

When we last saw them ...: Virginia Tech authoritatively collected a second bowl win in as many seasons for the first time in school history, demolishing Tennessee in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in what would ultimately be the end of the Lane Kiffin Interregnum in Knoxville.

It was the 10th victory of the year for the Hokies, keeping them right alongside Texas as the only programs to reach that plateau every season since 2004.

Virginia Tech didn't haul home a third straight ACC title, but life was still good. Tyrod Taylor made strides as a junior, and Ryan Williams emerged as a star in the place of Darren Evans. In short, it was exactly the sort of season expected from the Hokies.

Biggest question: The Hokies are good just about everywhere, and that includes an inexperienced defense that maybe hasn't generated the sort of faith it should.

Even if it's a down year for Virginia Tech's defense, it will still be among the best units in the ACC --- perhaps even the league's best thanks to an assist from North Carolina's implosion.

There will be a measure of hilarity when, around the beginning of November, there are predictable articles at both a local and national level written about how well the Hokies' defense is performing. One reason for such a slew of pub is Virginia Tech will clean up against a toothless October schedule. The other is that Bud Foster will go ahead and do his normal routine and make the Hokies formidable regardless of who's playing for him.

Biggest asset: The trendy thing to say is running backs, what with Williams back, Evans healthy and true sophomore David Wilson set to play in some capacity.

The success of all three of them will have as much to do with the rebuilt left side of the offensive line playing well as it does with their own impressive abilities. As good as Williams is, it wouldn't be stunning if he falls a little shy of his 5.6 yards per carry from last season. There's a real chance the holes just won't be quite as big this time around.

The common question of whether there are enough carries for Williams and Evans to coexist is sort of funny. With the way Virginia Tech plays, there's enough of a load for two men. The Hokies' top three tailbacks last year combined for 430 carries --- or just a tick more than 33 rushes a game. Give two-thirds to Williams and a third to Evans and voila, two effective rushers.

Factoring in a third guy could be a little tougher. But Wilson averaged 5.7 yards a rush last year, and at a minimum he's a superb insurance policy in case Williams or Evans gets hurt.

Best case: The Hokies overwhelm Boise State in the opener, shooting into the top five. They escape an early trip to Boston College with a win, roll through October and then summon their best games against Georgia Tech and Miami. After ruthlessly dispatching the Atlantic Division champ in the ACC title game with a multi-pronged rushing attack and a rapidly maturing defense, coach Frank Beamer gets his second crack at a national title and his first since the 1999 season.

Worst case: Boise State takes advantage of its chance to take out the Hokies, all but extinguishing any national title hopes before Labor Day is over. The defense doesn't grow up as quickly as expected, and there's losses both plausible (Georgia Tech, Miami) and less-than-expected (N.C. State? North Carolina?) lurking later in the schedule.

The Hokies limp home at 8-4 --- an enviable season for plenty of their conference brethren --- and find themselves in the odd spot of going to a mid-tier bowl and promptly demolish the unsuspecting team they draw in El Paso or Charlotte.

Where we'll see them in three months: Packing their bags for the Orange Bowl.

There's no perfect team, of course, which is why Virginia Tech fans can harbor some national title dreams. Alabama lost a lot of its defense. Ohio State has a way of flopping against athletic teams. Texas has questions at quarterback. Boise State's schedule strength will work against it. Florida is down Tim Tebow. Oklahoma's running game can be questioned. On and on it goes.

But the Hokies aren't without little flaws. No, there are no gaping holes, but how the offensive line plays and whether defensive reserves from last year are ready for larger roles remains in question.

There's also the elephant in the room: Can the offense carry the defense if need be, a reverse of the ACC championship teams of 2007 and 2008. It hasn't happened in a while for a Beamer-coached team.

The national consensus is the Hokies are a borderline top-10 team. Virginia Tech --- whether as a function of impressive consistency or boring predictability --- can be counted upon to land in that neighborhood.

So here's the guess. The Hokies have a loss or two come the start of December, enough to keep them out of the national title hunt but squarely in control of the ACC. That's easy enough to peg.

The better question is whether an 11-1 or 10-2 team with no BCS championship hopes will maintain a grip on the collective imaginations of an invested fan base. That, more than anything Williams or Taylor or anyone else pull off, could be the most fascinating dynamic in what is sure to be another strong season.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Virginia

(The eighth of 12 ACC team previews)

The beginning of the Aughts ushered in a new breed of coaches in the ACC, guys who could jump-start nearly dead or stagnant programs and bring them into the 21st century with the belief the best of days were still ahead.

Oh, and four of them were alums, a sense of school pride imbuing their tasks.

John Bunting, bless him, was simply overmatched at North Carolina, though some Tar Heel fans might be yearning for the foibles of his days right about now.

Chuck Amato, part builder and part buffoon, rode Philip Rivers as far as he could at N.C. State. Based on those pesky NCAA eligibility rules, that meant four years before things started to fall apart on the field. Surrounding it --- with a new football building and stadium suites --- things never looked better.

Ralph Friedgen will always have his three-year supernova, regardless of whether things end poorly this year or beyond. Like it or not, 2001-03 was one of the best stretches in program history.

All three are easy enough to peg. Al Groh, not so much.

He's the only one of the four whose predecessor enjoyed extended success, and that meant the bar was arguably higher than anywhere else. Groh recruited like crazy early, became the Czar of the Tire Bowl, lost some assistants to other gigs (Mike London, Al Golden, Ron Prince and Danny Rocco), gambled terribly on Peter Lalich and eventually oversaw a program that sunk into a state of disrepair.

The "Groh Must Go" meme first realistically surfaced in 2006 (losses to Western Michigan and East Carolina), and was revived the next year with an opening week loss at Wyoming. The Cavaliers recovered sufficiently enough to collect plenty of by-the-skin-of-their-teeth wins, then sunk to 5-7 in 2008 when Lalich's underage imbibing and Jameel Sewell's ineligibility left Virginia bereft of an experienced quarterback.

Things got worse last year, even with Sewell back in the fold. A loss to William & Mary, a mascot tossed from his horse and thousands of empty seats defined the season. Lord Groh, for so long Mr. October, went 0-for-November for the second straight season and was handed a large buyout check and sent packing the day after another loss to Virginia Tech.

As a result, the Cavaliers find themselves squarely in rebuilding mode. It's probably a year late, since few believed Virginia would amount to too much a season ago. But at least attention can be focused toward the future, rather than wondering just why the present turned out to be so miserable.

When we last saw them ...: Virginia Tech fans were mourning the loss of one of their favorite punching bags. Then again, Virginia fans were mourning another loss in the Commonwealth Cup.

It was a sour end to a miserable season, a 3-9 Groh death march that started poorly and never got much better (aside from a brief October blip). It's a year best forgotten in Charlottesville, and notable only in that athletic director Craig Littlepage zapped a coach of a revenue sport who had become unpopular among his fan base for the second time in less than nine months.

Biggest question: Offensive skill positions. There's so many options to choose from given the limited talent with the program, but the problems are particularly unnerving.

No returning running back managed 100 yards last year. Just one receiver (Kris Burd) averaged at least 20 yards a game.

At quarterback, there is an obvious answer in Marc Verica ... sort of.

Let's just say history has not been kind to the Cavaliers senior.

ACC QUARTERBACK CAREER TD & INTERCEPTION RATIO

QB (Team)	Attempts	TD	Att/TD	INT	Att/INT
Sean Renfree (DU)	50	4	12.5	2	25.0
Russell Wilson (NCSU)	653	48	13.6	12	54.2
Jacory Harris (THE U)	600	36	16.7	24	25.0
Kyle Parker (CU)	369	20	18.5	12	30.8
Dave Shinskie (BC)	288	15	19.2	14	20.6
Joshua Nesbitt (GT)	298	13	22.9	12	24.8
Christian Ponder (FSU)	666	29	23.0	22	30.3
T.J. Yates (UNC)	955	39	24.5	36	25.5
Tyrod Taylor (VT)	550	20	27.5	15	36.7
Jamarr Robinson (MD)	85	2	42.5	0	∞
Marc Verica (UVA)	417	8	52.2	17	24.5

Of the 11 likely starters with game experience (Wake Forest's Ted Stachitas has played minimally), Verica ranks last in career attempts per touchdown and next-to-last (behind only Boston College's Dave Shinskie) in attempts per interception.

Ruh-roh.

Shinskie at least has Montel Harris to hand the ball to, a default option that isn't easy to foul up even for the most limited of quarterbacks. Verica won't enjoy the presence of that sort of established security blanket.

Verica probably isn't as bad as his numbers indicate, but it's no stretch to suggest he'll be placed in a spot not dissimilar to what Chris Turner experienced at Maryland a year ago --- a nearly no-win scenario, but one for which he'll absorb some of the blame regardless of what happens.

Turner at least had the goodwill of some big wins the previous two years to fall back on. Verica played plenty for a 5-7 team in 2008 and suffered a concussion against Miami a season ago. He's going to need help if Virginia is to double its win total; it's just highly questionable whether he'll get it.

Biggest asset: Hope. When things don't look good for the short term, it always helps to believe tomorrow will be better than today.

Virginia fans can realistically pull a Ronald Reagan and say it's morning again in Charlottesville.

London is engaging, understands the program and knows that making the Cavaliers relevant again won't happen overnight.

More importantly, with the uncertainty swept away, Virginia can get back to recruiting more effectively rather than the hamstrung situation Groh dealt with in his final years.

On the field, Virginia should at least  be respectable on defense. Ras-I Dowling is among the conference's best defensive backs, and there remains enough talent up front for the Cavaliers to cause some issues. If Virginia is going to win, it will probably be in low-scoring games. The defense gives them a chance to snare a couple of them this season.

Best case: Virginia sweeps the lower-division schools on the schedule, knocks off Eastern Michigan like it should and handles Duke and Maryland like it could (though that probably shouldn't be completely expected) 

Toss in a victory over North Carolina (which never wins in Charlottesville), and the Cavaliers have a stunning 6-6 mark that earns London conference coach of the year honors but leaves Virginia shy of a bowl berth because it would own a pair of victories over teams from the former Division I-AA.

Worst case: The Cavaliers' talent deficiencies are exposed from the jump, with Richmond becoming the second in-state CAA team in as many years to leave Scott Stadium with a victory. Virginia goes winless in the ACC as London endures a miserable first year in which there are no easy answers for the myriad problems the program faces. The Cavaliers finish 2-10, and the new coaching staff spends a lot of time talkig about how a foundation was laid despite the wins and losses.

Where they'll be in three months: It would be a titanic upset to see Virginia practicing into December. The Coastal Division, dates with Boston College, Florida State and Southern California and an overall dearth of talent should keep Virginia below .500.

But it might not be a total loss. The path to five victories isn't unmanageable, and snagging four victories is extremely doable if the Cavaliers can spring an upset in Charlottesville. The key might just be the opener; win, and at least London's avoided an embarrassment in his debut. Lose, and fans could quickly adopt a "wait 'til next year" attitude.

If things go terribly bad, London will have plenty of incentive to play underclassmen and start preparing for 2011. That wouldn't be fun for the likes of Verica, who have endured some rough times in their careers, but it would make sense from a program-building standpoint.

Even if Virginia tosses up another 3-9 finish, the eyes of Cavaliers fans will be squarely on the future. London has a compelling life story, the hope he embodies and the simple fact he isn't Lord Groh of Hooville going for him. A less-than-stellar season --- one Virginia more likely than not will wind up producing --- won't diminish his standing too much.

Any lack of patience on the part of Virginia fans, along with substantial progress with the on-field product, will probably wait for 2011.

Eve of the season ACC primer: N.C. State

(The seventh of 12 ACC team previews)

Tom O'Brien came to N.C. State for one last challenge in his career while ditching a gig where, despite being successful, a series of 8-4ish seasons had become dull at best and stale at worst.

He banked on taking over a program in Raleigh. Instead, he got a medical ward.

O'Brien's three Wolfpack teams, in general, haven't been a complete embarrassment, given the plethora of injuries suffered on an annual basis. N.C. State is no longer a completely boneheaded and bumbling bunch, and it has one of the most exciting quarterbacks to enter the ACC (Russell Wilson) in the last decade or so.

But the Wolfpack hasn't been particularly scary, either, at least not on a regular basis to anyone other than Butch Davis.

O''Brien is fond of pointing out his first three Boston College teams combined for just as many wins (16) as his first three N.C. State outfits. The Eagles had a 4-4-8 sequence as O'Brien worked to overcome Dan Henning's disastrous run, while his 5-6-5 run of wins with the Wolfpack (a) Is a victory in 2008 shy of a haiku (look what Wilson's injury in the Pizza Bowl did!) and (b) Does nothing to instill belief a breakout season is on the way.

The best argument something good could be coming down the pike is the Wolfpack actually has some depth. Maybe it isn't at running back, where a cornerback converted to offense during camp won the opening game starting job. But assuming Wilson and a posse of receiving options are let loose, the Wolfpack might resemble the sort of reckless team a college freshman would utilize in a video game more than anyone else in the ACC.

When we last saw them ...:The Wolfpack had to rank among the happiest 5-7 teams out there, holding North Carolina to 27 points in a one-point victory to close out the regular season.

OK, the season featured no bowl game and virtually no defense (North Carolina was the first major-college opponent the Wolfpack held to less than 30 points since a 7-3 loss to South Carolina in the season opener). But Wilson threw for 31 touchdowns and alleviated concerns about his fragility.

It was, to be truthful, a fairly forgettable run that started with promise --- or at least as much promise as can be had with a pair of Division I-AA wins and a defeat of a ranked team coached by Dave Wannstedt. Unlike O'Brien's first two years, State didn't go into its finale with a prayer of extending its season. But it did knock off North Carolina (again), and that has a way of softening the blow of watching a defense shredded on a weekly basis.

Biggest question: A rushing game. It's tempting to point to the defense, but statistically N.C. State shouldn't have been quite so bad last year. Chalk some of it up to injuries (linebacker Nate Irving) and some to depth and a whole lot to turnovers (season margin: minus-11). Factor out the defeats of Murray State and Gardner-Webb, and N.C. State probably should have had a losing record --- but not given up as many points in the process.

Instead, it's worth looking at the tailbacks and the line that will be blocking for them. The Wolfpack's listed starters for Saturday's opener include three sophomores on the offensive line, and two freshmen (Dean Haynes and Mustafa Greene) as the top options at tailback.

If N.C. State doesn't make a bowl game, the first reason will be the absence of a credible ground game. The Wolfpack might just be able to score with anyone. Whether they're capable of the soul-crushing six-minute drive while nursing a three-point lead in the fourth quarter is another matter altogether.

Biggest asset: Wilson. Granted, the junior is blessed with plenty of targets, including Jarvis Williams, Owen Spencer and tight end George Bryan. But even if Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris receive some Heisman buzz, Wilson is the ACC's most exciting player.

A year older and wiser (and with the baseball question resolved now that he's opted to sign with Colorado and continue his football career, which all the cool QBs in the ACC seem to be doing), Wilson is well-positioned to continue the gains the Wolfpack has made on offense. In the absence of a credible rushing game, he'll have to.

Best case: N.C. State starts with three straight wins, closes with three consecutive victories and poaches a couple more games during a difficult middle stretch. An 8-4 season would constitute progress, would surely ticket the Wolfpack for a middle-tier bowl (hello, Charlotte!) and earn them chic ACC title sleeper status for 2011.

In the process, Wilson would become a full-fledged star worthy of a bit of national attention and the Irving-anchored defense would show vast improvement. Fixing the turnover problem must happen if the Wolfpack is to make such a push, and the emergence of a rushing attack (Greene's as likely a candidate as any to make it happen) would be helpful.

Worst case: The Wolfpack lose once or twice before conference play begins, can't poach a home victory against Virginia Tech, Boston College or Florida State and they're stuck playing for their postseason lives in the final month of the season.

Toss in some injuries, an unproductive defense and an offensive line that has its inexperience exposed, and the Wolfpack could take a step back as far as 4-8.

Where we'll see them in three months: Set to appear LIVE in the nation's capital between Christmas and New Year's!

It's not asking too much of N.C. State to win an extra game this season, even if there's one less I-AA foe to deflect with ease. A healthier and deeper defense will help, and Wilson might just be even better at dissecting ACC offenses when he gets a second or even third look at them.

That said, this isn't a team likely to charge into the top half of the conference this season. There's too many questions with a major component of the offense (i.e. the rush) to believe there won't be a game or two frittered away simply because the Wolfpack doesn't have the personnel to effectively close an opponent out.

From a storyline perspective, there couldn't be a more compelling possibility than 5-6 N.C. State visiting 5-6 Maryland on Thanksgiving weekend in a de-facto Yow Bowl --- the winning coach heads to RFK Stadium for the EagleBank Bowl, the loser gets to endure a press conference that could have funereal overtones.

Of course, N.C. State could already have six wins by then. That seems like an appropriate ballpark to expect. Maybe the Wolfpack gets to seven, perhaps they fall short with five. They'll be a middle-of-the-road team, a nuisance on a few occasions but eminently beatable on others.

That's probably not what O'Brien signed up for. Yet until the Wolfpack breaks out of its post-Philip Rivers rut of mediocrity (a win sequence of 5-7-3-5-6-5), there's no reason to expect things to veer far off course.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Clemson

(The sixth of 12 ACC team previews)

Longtime loyal readers will know of a fondness to invoke "Clemsonliness" --- a trait not entirely unique to Clemson football but nonetheless one the Tigers have come to personify in the last decade and a half.

Never as good as they should be in good times and rarely as bad as they could be in the worst of straits, Clemson seems permanently stuck in college football's upper-middle class. The Tigers are better off than a whole lot of ho-hum programs, recruit well, have great tradition and wonderful fans.

They also have not come close to consistently cracking the national elite.

Clemson has played all of eight games as a top-10 team in the 18 seasons since Florida State joined the ACC. Yet the Tigers have been ranked at some stage in all but four of them, and only once in the last dozen years did Clemson not play in a bowl game. Even then, a season-ending fracas with South Carolina in 2004 was to blame for the Tigers staying home.

This season is unlike two years ago, when Clemson was hyped as the greatest team to come through Death Valley since the national title team of 1981 and promptly stumbled thanks to a beleaguered offensive line. Nor is it like last year, when a new quarterback and a fairly new coach helped temper expectations for what was an increasingly mature team.

This is somewhere in the middle. Expectations are higher, if only because fans have tasted a measure of success in a ACC title game trip and see a division that can be had, if not with ease then certainly realistically. But Clemson is also down its top rusher (the inimitable C.J. Spiller), its top three receivers (Jacoby Ford and Spiller among them) and its return men (again, Ford and Spiller).

Oh, and the schedule's a brute.

No, if the Tigers go 7-5 this year, it won't be because of Clemsonliness. Most likely, it will be a confluence of unfortunate factors that probably shouldn't be held against coach Dabo Swinney. Not this season, anyway.

When we last saw them ...: The Tigers won six straight games in the middle of the season to clinch the Atlantic Division title. Then they lost to South Carolina. "Grumble, grumble," went the fans. Then they fell to Georgia Tech in the ACC title game despite a brilliant effort from Spiller. OK, that happens.

The punch to the stomach, though, was being relegated to the Music City Bowl --- a mid-tier option in the pecking order --- for a matchup with Kentucky. Clemson won as expected, snapping a three-game bowl skid, and could at least feel good about salvaging something modest after the back-to-back losses late. Too bad Spiller wouldn't be back for a return engagement the next fall.

Biggest question: Who the hell made this schedule (aside from the ACC, which is responsible for two-thirds of it)? Seriously, Clemson has the talent of a team that should win eight games. But just getting there will be quite the challenge.

The Tigers visit Auburn in mid-September, draw a bye week, then get Miami at home and a depleted by still potentially feisty North Carolina bunch in Chapel Hill. Georgia Tech comes to Death Valley, but the Tigers have to play a pair of crucial division games (Boston College and Florida State) on the road. Then there's that season finale against South Carolina.

Even a team with Spiller, Ford and some of the stars from a year ago who have since moved on would struggle with that. Quarterback Kyle Parker will have to be better --- much better --- if Clemson is to match its nine-win total from a year ago. The schedule simply doesn't afford substantial margin for error.

Biggest asset: Offensive line. Four starters are back up front, including bookend tackles in Chris Hairston and Landon Walker. That should buy Parker time as he tries to adjust to a new batch of wideouts and --- more significantly --- create room for Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper to run.

It's basically the opposite of 2008, when the Tigers had a pair of high-profile backs in Spiller and James Davis and a quarterback in Cullen Harper coming off an absurdly good junior year but little established on the line. Better to have the line set and the skill positions in question, as Clemson learned that season. If the Tigers can get to nine wins, they'll have the fellas up front to thank.

Best case: The Tigers leads the ACC in turnovers forced again (they had 30 last year) thanks in part to safety DeAndre McDaniel, leading to favorable situations for Parker and the rest of the offense. Clemson establishes itself as a top-20 team, and despite some tough matchups contained in a brutal schedule, pretty much splits its games with marquee teams. A 9-3 team is good enough to make the ACC title game, where a rematch with Miami or Georgia Tech or possibly a showdown with Virginia Tech would stand in the way of Clemson's first BCS bid.

Worst case: Losses in the secondary make Clemson much more vulnerable to potent passers like Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder and Russell Wilson. The receiving corps never develops any consistency, leaving Ellington and Harper facing plenty of nine-man fronts. The unforgiving schedule gobbles up the Tigers, who throw in a puzzling loss (Maryland? at Wake Forest?) and dip to 6-6 in Swinney's second full year.

Where we'll see them in three months: Perhaps, for a change, in a predictable spot: 8-4 and ticketed to a decent mid-tier bowl game after an arduous season.

Swinney should have the confidence of his fanbase, as well as a flush bank account, after hauling home a division title a year later than everyone anticipated Clemson would make its first ACC championship game appearance. His leadership helped salvage a demoralized team in 2008 after Tommy Bowden was ousted, and he held things together last season after an inexplicable loss at Maryland.

Indeed, a big problem in recent years for the Tigers is digging an early hole. The '08 team was 3-4 and in grave danger of missing the postseason altogether. Last year, Clemson was 2-3 before its midseason surge.

Swinney hasn't committed Bowden's repeated cardinal sin of losing home games to unranked opponents while trotting out a ranked team. Bowden did that seven times, including his Death Valley finale against Maryland in 2008. Given the schedule, Swinney will be fortunate to even have the chance to stumble in such a manner.

The Auburn-Miami-North Carolina sequence --- followed after a visit from Maryland with Georgia Tech and Boston College back-to-back --- can kindly be described as harrowing. But snag two of those first three (and pair them with a couple anticipated blowouts) and Clemson could be 5-1 and at or near the top of the Atlantic Division in mid-October. That would fuel some hope.

Trying to accurately forecast Clemson's football fortune is often a fool's errand, a trip to a Bizarro world where nothing seems to make a whole lot of sense. On paper, the Tigers could wind up in El Paso or Charlotte for the holidays, and that's probably the most likely outcome. But no one should be surprised if Clemson's annual attempt to keep up with college football's upper-middle class Joneses is littered with surprises. It almost always is.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Georgia Tech

(The fifth of 12 ACC team previews)

The Chan Gailey years brought a bland, stodgy level of predictability to Georgia Tech's football program. Every year, the process was the same. Collect seven wins and move along to next season. If Calvin Johnson was around, maybe nine wins could be extracted.

There is some predictability now that Paul Johnson is entrenched for the foreseeable future. The Yellow Jackets will run the triple option. They will cause fits to opponents. They generally won't beat themselves.

Oh, and 9-3 is the new number to bank on.

Sure, Georgia Tech will be better than that on occasion (like the 11-3 from a year ago). But as long as Johnson is around and the team isn't decimated by injuries, the floor for the Yellow Jackets seems like it isn't particularly low.

That's important heading into this year, since a common analyst might see that Demaryius Thomas (big loss) and Jonathan Dwyer (eminently replaceable loss) are gone along with the two biggest names on the defense (Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett) and assume Georgia Tech is in for a decline.

Perhaps a modest one is coming, yet it won't be big. Get used to seeing the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division race. With Johnson calling the shots, that isn't going to change any time soon.

When we last saw them ... : Georgia Tech produced a feeble offensive performance in an Orange Bowl loss to Iowa (in the coldest Orange Bowl ever, as Dick Stockton intoned on a repeating loop throughout the game) to spoil what was otherwise a pretty enjoyable season.

The Yellow Jackets didn't beat Georgia for a second straight season, but they did wrap up their first outright ACC title since 1990 and hung around the top 10 in the polls after beating Virginia Tech in mid-October.

There were some nits to pick for the season as a whole, certainly, but it was further evidence Johnson wasn't going to be a part of a stale, Gailey-like rut. Even if Iowa could stop Georgia Tech's offense with a month of prep time (much like Louisiana State did a year earlier in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl), it doesn't seem like ACC schools made all that much progress in doing so on a week-to-week basis.

Included below are three sets of yards per game (rush, pass, total), points per game, total turnovers and record against conference opponents for the Yellow Jackets the last two seasons:

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE vs. ACC OPPONENTS, 2008 vs. 2009

Year	Rush	Pass	Total	Points	TOs	Record
2008	264.1	100.5	364.6	22.5	20	5-3
2009	315.1	111.8	426.9	33.3	10	8-1

Everything got better offensively, or at least very nearly everything. Players were more accustomed to Johnson's system, and pieces that didn't fit quite as well were further weeded out. Not every year will be as good as 2009, but most won't be too far off that mark.

Biggest question: Stopping the run. Nothing makes a coach take notice of a problem quite as much as when it surfaces in a rivalry or postseason game.

Or both. The Yellow Jackets allowed more than 300 yards rushing to both Georgia (a loss) and Clemson (a win, but barely thanks to C.J. Spiller) and yielded 172 yards to Iowa in the Orange Bowl loss.

This wasn't new. Georgia Tech surrendered more than 200 yards rushing in defeats of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, giving them a 3-1 record when getting run over for that much.

Nonetheless, an efficient running game from an opponent is no way to go through a season again. To that end, Johnson hired former Virginia coach Al Groh to take over the defense.

Groh didn't turn out to be a great head coach. And while Groh's smart and hard-working, he probably won't win many popularity contests.

But Lord Groh knows defense as well as anyone, and to his credit some bad Virginia teams never quit on him. His addition was the best move any ACC school made with its coaching staff last year. He might not solve all the defensive woes, but here's guessing he comes close.

Biggest asset: Quarterback Joshua Nesbitt. The Yellow Jackets will learn just how replaceable Dwyer was when Anthony Allen uncorks a 1,000-yard season. They don't want to discover just how difficult it will be to jump in for Nesbitt midstream.

That would be the job for Tevin Washington if Nesbitt, who ran for 1,037 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, gets hurt. Nesbitt is one of the most irreplaceable options in the country, and his ability to run Johnson's scheme is particularly efficient. As long as he's in one piece, Georgia Tech will go into every game with at least a chance (and, in most cases, a likelihood) of winning.

Best case: The Yellow Jackets' defense adjusts to Groh's scheme quickly and the team rattles off seven straight victories before facing a critical stretch against Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami. After one stumble in there, Georgia Tech rallies to handle Georgia and whoever comes out of the Atlantic Division to win back-to-back ACC titles for the first time while harboring hopes of a top-five finish.

Worst case: Nesbitt deals with nagging injuries all season --- to the point he can play, but not as effectively as he did a year ago. The defense still gives up nearly five yards a run and the Yellow Jackets suffer a surprising early loss (perhaps at depleted North Carolina). Miami and Virginia Tech exploit pure talent advantages for November victories, and Georgia does the same a few weeks later. Georgia Tech winds up 8-4 --- still better than Gailey territory --- and heads to a winnable mid-tier bowl.

Where we'll see them in three months: Georgia Tech might not wind up in Charlotte. Virginia Tech will be its usual 10-win (at minimum) self, and Miami is much improved.

The Yellow Jackets, though, will have a say in things.

Georgia Tech got a lift from the schedule rotation. Clemson is a permanent crossover rival, but dates with N.C. State and Wake Forest sound better than dealing with Boston College or Florida State (which matched Georgia Tech yard for yard in last season's defense-optional showdown).

Nesbitt and Allen will be a brutal combination for defenses to contend with, and someone will emerge from the wide receiver scrum to provide a semi-decent possibility for Nesbitt to throw to on occasion. The defense, while not overwhelming, should be better with most of its starters back and an upgrade at coordinator.

Ultimately, one of the most crucial numbers in the chart listed above was the turnover total. Georgia Tech halved that figure in conference play last season and came out of it with a trip to the league title game despite playing in the stronger of the ACC's two divisions. Nesbitt, better than ever at handling the demands of the option scheme, can keep that total low.

There's enough questions to prompt some pause in predicting a conference crown. Nevertheless, the Yellow Jackets won't stagger backward. This year might not result in Georgia Tech repeating as ACC champs, but it will further cement the program's regular baseline as a 9-3 season.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Boston College

(The fourth of 12 ACC team previews)

Every year, Boston College is generally considered an afterthought in the ACC --- good for a fight, but not necessarily for a spot in the conference title race.

Every year, the Eagles win eight games (or at least for 10 of the last 11 seasons, anyway) and stay in at least the division title hunt deep into November.

Consider that Boston College and Virginia Tech are the only teams in the conference to post winning records in league play five years running. Ultimately, the Eagles will be there in the end.

Sure, in the preseason they might be taking the role of Betty to Florida State's Veronica. But just because Boston College looks and often plays like a Big Ten team, it doesn't mean they will not surpass the usually tame expectations.

This is one case where fans are decidedly ahead of media types. While it can still be argued Boston College is an unusual fit in the ACC (and it is), the steady Eagles have made the conference better in football. And that was a big part of why they were invited (well, that and all those TV sets in Boston).

As usual, BC isn't picked to win the division (they were tabbed to finish third); that just means the Eagles will be first or second before everything is through.

When we last saw them ... : Boston College was the last ACC team picked for a bowl game and wound up in San Francisco facing the remnants of the Southern California dynasty of the Aughts. Even though the Trojans were more like a tropical depression than the Category 5-like juggernaut of the middle of the decade, Boston College headed home with a 24-13 loss.

It was the fifth time in the season's last six games the Eagles failed to crack 20 points. For the season, it happened seven times. Needless to say, it reflected an obvious truth: The Eagles' staunch defense wasn't just impressive. It was a necessity.

Still, Boston College's most recognizable face became even more well-known without even playing a snap.  Mark Herzlich's cancer treatments were the dominant storyline of the season, and it would be a challenge for most folks who don't follow the Eagles on a regular basis to provide too many details about the team's 2009 season before getting to the Herzlich storyline. Wins, losses and bowl trips are fuzzy details in comparison.

Biggest question: Scoring points. That seems like an odd thing to assert for a team with a strong offensive line (including a star in left tackle Anthony Castonzo) and a tailback (Montel Harris) already among the top 10 in rushing yards in school history. 

Yet somehow --- mainly because of an adequate-at-best passing game --- Boston College found itself in close games late in the season against the likes of Maryland and Virginia.

So what's different?

Well, the top wideout (Rich Gunnell) is gone. The No. 2 wideout (Colin Larmond Jr.) is done for the year. And the quarterback situation (Dave Shinskie, already more than halfway to his AARP card at age 26) is modestly but not overwhelmingly better.

That means there will be a lot of Harris, which will work fine if he gets to face N.C. State every game. But some teams can actually figure out how to contain the run, and those sorts of opponents will probably vex BC this season.

Biggest asset: Linebackers. Rather than dip into the Big Bag of Sportswriters and drop "gritty" and "inspirational" to describe Herzlich, how about a more accurate depiction. He was absurdly good as a junior in 2008, earning ACC defensive player of the year honors while brilliantly playing off the skills of two run-clogging defensive tackles.

How well he can play without B.J. Raji and Ron Brace --- never mind the comeback from cancer or the broken foot hobbling him during camp --- is probably the more interesting X-and-O question. Here's guessing someone as smart as Herzlich will do just fine when he does return to the lineup.

But the Eagles have more than Herzlich. There's also Luke Kuechly, who had 158 tackles a year ago while stepping in for Herzlich.

Typically, Boston College has enough strong, system-oriented players in the front seven to cobble together a stingy defense. It won't be any different this year.

Best case: Shinskie and some combination of receivers progress enough to make Boston College's offense multidimensional in league play, the defense does its usual stout job and the Eagles outlast Clemson and Florida State to reach the ACC title game for the third time in four seasons --- probably with a record around 9-3. A win sends them to the Orange Bowl. A setback means the Eagles better figure out the best way to get to El Paso, since the Sun Bowl is obligated to take the ACC championship game loser if available.

Worst case: The defense doesn't create enough turnovers and the passing game proves feeble if no reliable medium-to-deep targets emerge. Harris slogs along and produces a decent season, but his yards per carry decreases as teams focus on the obvious running calls the Eagles make. With the help of a favorable schedule both in conference and out, BC goes 7-5 (6-6 at worst) and gets an invitation to the Independence or EagleBank bowls.

Where we'll see them in three months: Probably in the eight-win neighborhood.

Boston College is a team with enough strengths and a consistent enough philosophy that it would require an extended series of unfortunate events for the bottom to fall out. If going 8-5 despite the circus heading into last year demonstrated anything, it's that Boston College enjoys a superb foundation.

At the same time, the Eagles just aren't built to engage in many high-scoring games, and they'll face four teams in a row in the first half of the season (Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, N.C. State, Florida State) that would ideally like to do exactly that.

The thing is, the second half of the schedule is immensely welcoming. Maryland, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse (combined 2009 record: 19-41) await after Oct. 23, along with a visit from Clemson.

Boston College will be the stalking horse in the conference title chase. The schedule affords the opportunity to creep back into contention even if there are losses early against Virginia Tech and Florida State.

Would 5-3 in the division be enough for a trip to Charlotte? Perhaps. How about 6-2? Probably. The Eagles typically makes the most of their opportunities while staying true to who they are, and following that path will probably keep them relevant for much of the season.

Does anyone see it coming? Some folks do; certainly more than last year. Understandably, no one expects much style, since even Harris at his best is a workmanlike back. Not so understandably, Boston College's substance will be ignored by some. Do so at your own peril.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Florida State

(The third of 12 ACC team previews)

Nowhere is there such a titanic shift in the ACC this season as the one that exists in Tallahassee.

Sure, Virginia has a new coach, N.C. State (and soon enough, Maryland) have new athletic directors and North Carolina has a new dedicated phone line to the NCAA offices.

But at Florida State, Bobby Bowden is gone after being nudged out the door last fall, with head coach in waiting Jimbo Fisher taking over.

Some perspective on that: Twelve of the last 13 Heisman winners weren't even alive when Bowden coached his first game in Tallahassee (it came a month or so before Charles Woodson was born).

So things are different, if only because a larger-than-life personality no longer is the symbol of a program the built --- only to watch it slide into relative irrelevance for most of his final years on the job.

The big question, then, is whether changing a coach prompts different results. We'll find out soon enough.

When we last saw them ...: Bowden celebrated his final game with a Gator Bowl defeat of West Virginia, his soon-to-be old school knocking off his long-time old school to herald in an unwanted retirement.

It wrapped up a year when the Seminoles lost to Miami, South Florida and Florida and failed to collect even a division title in the conference for the fourth straight year. It ended with Christian Ponder watching from the sideline after missing four games with injury. And it ended with defensive lion Mickey Andrews enjoying his last roar --- except it was much more of a whimper thanks to a unit that gave up 204.6 yards a game on the ground. The pass defense (230.0 ypg) wasn't quite so toothless, but it wasn't impressive.

Still, Florida State was 7-6 with a bowl defeat of a ranked team. Clearly, the Seminoles were in a diminished state. But if that was rock bottom, it was an enviable low point many other programs in the league would happily take as their floor.

Biggest question: The defense. Yes, the secondary was almost completely wiped out, but the whole unit is on the spot after last year's debacle.

For the press box well above the Doak Campbell Stadium field, it was shocking to watch the Seminoles scamper about trying (and, often, failing) to contain a struggling Maryland offense late last season. In glimpses on TV throughout the year --- notably in the comically bad attempts to stop Georgia Tech --- one thing stood out.

Those guys were wearing Florida State uniforms, but that sure wasn't a Florida State defense. The Seminoles didn't have to look like they stepped out of a time machine from the mid-1990s (like they did in a 2008 trip to Maryland), but the expectation was they'd be competent. They were not.

In some ways, it was like watching a football version of North Carolina's 2001-02 basketball team. Deep down, you knew that wouldn't last long. It didn't. Three years later, the Tar Heels won a national title. But it did take time, and it wasn't always fun.

And so it will be with Florida State, and its defense in particular. There are some pieces in place, and the Seminoles will be better. But the defense could still let them down against some potent teams (Oklahoma, Miami, Florida and N.C. State all come to mind).

Biggest asset: The offensive line. Rodney Hudson is already among the top linemen to pass through Tallahassee, and that's saying quite a bit. But all five men expected to line up in the opener against Samford are at least two-year starters, and the group has combined for 142 career starts.

Ponder couldn't ask for a better situation to help ignite his Heisman chances. He already completed 68.8 percent of his attempts last year, and tossed only three interceptions in his first eight games before a painful (in more ways than one) loss to Clemson.

Nearly all of Florida State's tailbacks averaged at least five yards a carry (Ty Jones checked in at 4.9 yards a rush), so that area is set, too.

Even if Ponder got hurt again, the line would give backup E.J. Manuel a chance to enjoy some success and salvage something. That might not be the case for the reserves behind any of the ACC's other high-profile starters.

Best-case: The Seminoles take advantage of a favorable division schedule (Boston College and Clemson at home), Fisher makes an instantaneous difference and Florida State nabs one or two of the three high-profile games on its schedule (at Oklahoma, at Miami, Florida). Rather than needing time to make a major adjustment, the Seminoles go 10-2 and have a chance to win their first ACC title since 2005.

Worst-case: The defense isn't any better, and Ponder winds up leading Florida State to the wrong end of a few 45-38 games. The Seminoles are blasted in first-half tests at Oklahoma and Miami, and lurch into November with a 4-4 or 5-3 record featuring an unexpected loss (Brigham Young? N.C. State?) or a physical manhandling by Boston College --- or both.

Florida State shouldn't finish any worse than 7-5 --- an improvement by a game over last year --- but with the hype the Seminoles have received in the preseason, a lot of people would consider that a massive disappointment.

Where we'll see them in three months: On paper, the Seminoles should be the Atlantic Division's representative in the ACC title game. Then again, that's a virtually annual refrain, and it never come to pass (except in 2005).

Florida State has more talent in its program --- albeit much of it young talent --- than do Boston College and Clemson. It's better at quarterback than both teams, and better on the offensive line than the Tigers (and probably the Eagles, though that's pretty close).

The defense, though, has plenty to prove in the first year under new coordinator Mark Stoops. And at this stage, it's smarter to let the Seminoles demonstrate they're an elite group rather than just assume they are because of the uniforms they wear.

The calls for a 10-win autumn seem a little over-the-top, but these guys aren't going to slog through another .500 season. They might not beat Oklahoma (but could) and probably won't beat Florida, but the league schedule is favorable enough to offer a shot at a conference title.

The Seminoles get their fellow Atlantic contenders at home. Their crossover combo of North Carolina and Virginia suddenly looks a lot tamer thanks to the Tar Heels' troubles. Even the date at Miami isn't an insurmountable challenge.

Ponder will help keep things interesting, and he's got enough receivers both established (Bert Reed, Taiwan Easterling) and promising (Willie Haulstead) to create all sorts of problems. If the defense can at least achieve adequacy, Florida State should bounce back to 8-4 or (if the Seminoles are fortunate) 9-3 territory.

It won't be a top-five national finish, but it will be tangible progress toward eventually matching Bowden's glory days --- something Florida State fans have longed to recapture much too long for their own liking.

Eve of the season ACC primer: Miami

(The second of 12 ACC team previews)

Is Miami back?

Can Miami be back this year?

Will Jacory Harris cut out the the throws to players in different colored jerseys?

All are important in trying to dissect the Hurricanes.

When we last saw them ... : The U was peeling itself off the mat after Wisconsin managed a healthy 430-249 yardage edge in the Champs Sports Bowl. The score was closer (20-14 for the Badgers), but it had the feel of a beatdown all the same.

Before that, though, Miami (along with Clemson) was one of the big losers in the bowl shuffle that allowed Bobby Bowden to play in the high-profile Gator Bowl in his final game at Florida State.

Despite those back-to-back blows, it was hard not to feel good about the Hurricanes' progress. The movement from five to seven to nine wins in coach Randy Shannon's three seasons suggested plenty of improvement --- not to mention distance from the program's talent drain at the tail end of Larry Coker's tenure.

Oh, and Miami was young. Note the use of the past tense. The Hurricanes return 15 starters, including punter/kicker Matt Bosher; six were freshmen or sophomores a year ago.

Biggest question: Can you say offensive line? Perhaps even moreso with just two starters back.

One of them isn't Jason Fox, a tackle who was one of the top linemen in the ACC the last two years.

But sometimes a little change can be good. Miami, after all, allowed 35 sacks last year. And while it isn't dreadful, it's an issue that led Jacory Harris to make some errant, off-the-cuff throws --- some of which led to the 17 interceptions Harris endured in his first year as a starter.

Still, Miami was one of only 15 teams in the six years since the ACC expanded to yield 35 sacks in a season (data courtesy of college football statistical overlord Phil Steele):

MOST SACKS ALLOWED, ACC TEAMS 2004-09

54: Virginia Tech 2007 (11-3)

45: Duke 2007 (1-11)

43: Duke 2006 (0-12)

42: Virginia Tech 2008 (10-4)

41: Virginia 2009 (3-9)

40: Maryland 2007 (6-7)

39: Duke 2004 (2-9)

37: North Carolina 2007 (4-8)

36: Virginia Tech 2004 (10-3)
36: Miami 2005 (9-3)
36: Maryland 2009 (2-10)

35: N.C. State 2005 (7-5)
35: Virginia 2006 (5-7)
35: Clemson 2007 (9-4)
35: Miami 2009 (9-4)

There's a lot of bad teams on that list, as well more than a few really good ones that happened to start statues under center. Some of those teams had both dreadful rosters and quarterbacks with feet stuck in cement.

But it's a stretch to give too much credit to any of the offensive lines listed above, even if they did possess some overwhelming talents on an individual level.

The good news is only one of those teams on that chart allowed more sacks the next year (Duke 2006-07). Miami should be better up front, but it's still a priority to get things sorted out.

Biggest asset: Options ... everywhere but quarterback. Miami is arguably the deepest team in the conference, a byproduct of improved recruiting, trial-by-fire experience and a wise effort to improve the defense considerable despite some coordinator flux during Shannon's tenure.

That seems to be fixed, and the Hurricanes will have the same man in charge of the defense (John Lovett) in consecutive years since Shannon was the coordinator between 2001 and 2006. Bringing back a wealth of experience, including two-year starter Allen Bailey on the line and cornerback Brandon Harris, will surely help.

But the offense is in great shape, too.

Consider: Miami returns six players who had at least 15 catches last year (after having nine total). In the rest of the ACC, only Duke, which barely showed much interest or ability in the running game, even had six guys with 15 receptions.

The fulcrum, however, is Harris. There are no knowns behind him; among the reserves, only A.J. Highsmith (4-for-6, 53 yards, 1 TD) has any stats to speak of. Harris completed nearly 60 percent of his passes as a sophomore, and his 24 touchdowns were spread over 10 receivers. Bad for fantasy football players, good as a sign Harris can pick out the right target if given time.

He'll again have plenty of options to choose from, between the Leonard Hankerson-led receiving corps, a deep posse of tailbacks and newcomer Chase Ford at tight end. Harris needs to make it through the season healthy for Miami to have a chance at truly big things, but he'll have a ton of help if he can stay upright.

Best-case: Miami picks off Ohio State on the road in the season's second week, handles the slingshot into the top 10 without any trouble and rumbles through a daunting schedule with perhaps only a hiccup along the way. The Hurricanes play six teams ranked in the preseason top 25, so one misstep can be expected even under the most favorable conditions. But the right mix of victories (and then solid performances from the teams it beats) could have Miami on the edge of the national title game discussion come the first week of December.

Worst-case: The Hurricanes don't take the step they feel it is time to make, getting run out of Columbus and returning to their up-and-down ways. The offensive line isn't better, Harris still throws a bunch of picks and Miami is erratic enough to be 4-3 by the time North Carolina leaves town on Oct. 23. At that point, the lights can be turned out, since fickle fans in south Florida will turn their eyes to the LeBron Show set to debut late that month and ignore the Hurricanes in the second half of league play.

Where we'll see them in three months: It's nice to dream about a national title, but that schedule says it isn't happening. Not this year.

In 1983, Miami played two teams in the regular season that opened the year ranked. In 1987, it was four teams. In 1989, three; in 1991, three; and in 2001 it was three.

The tired old chestnut of beating the best to be the best? That's best done in moderation. Facing a half-dozen teams ranked in the preseason is a ticket to a few setbacks.

As it stands, Miami owns potentially top-10 talent with far too many opportunities to lose against strong teams to wind up in the top five at season's end. If the ACC wants a team that can chase down a national championship this year, the Hurricanes aren't it.

But they'll be vastly entertaining and incredibly unpredictable. The three straight road trips to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson will probably net a win (and maybe two), but good luck guessing which games Miami will actually win.

At their best, they'll be the scariest Miami team since 2002. At its worst, The U will be vulnerable to more than half the teams on its schedule.

Shannon's made progress every year, and a division title (and maybe a conference title) could be within reach. The best guess is a 10-win season that includes Miami's first bowl victory since Coker's farewell on the blue turf of Boise in 2006.

Is that enough? Maybe not for the titles-or-else crowd. But Shannon's built in Coral Gables with the long-term in mind, and the Hurricanes keep improving. There will be progress again, even if the schedule won't make it particularly easy.