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D1scourse Half-Dozen: Coaches who could use 2010 as a springboard

It's far more common to come up with a list of hot seat denizens than up-and-comers (and don't worry, it'll come all too soon here), and in some reasons it's odd.

Chances are, most fans won't be paying attention to the 3-9 teams shedding head coaches, but will be paying attention to coaches whose teams exceed expectations.

That said, this isn't simply a list of every coach outside of a power conference who will be good this year.

There's a few assumptions in play. Namely: Chris Petersen and, to a lesser extent, Gary Patterson are content to oversee dominant programs at Boise State and Texas Christian, respectively. Obviously, they could do quite well for themselves if they wished to leave --- but that's already the case heading into the season.

It seems unlikely Kyle Whittingham wouldn't bolt Utah as it heads into the Pac-10. Ditto for Bronco Mendenhall if Brigham Young goes independent.

So who's left? Some mid-major best and brightest, as well as a pair of coaches at bigger-name schools without a long history of sustained success.

1. Kevin Sumlin, Houston

His first two Cougar teams have averaged more than 40 points each. Houston won 10 games last year, including defeats of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. He has a history with one of the nation's best programs (Oklahoma). And at 46, he's just about the perfect age to be viewed as a long-term answer by a major program. If Houston wins another 10 games, Sumlin could be the coaching silly season's hottest commodity.

2. Al Golden, Temple

He's won at Temple --- yes, nine victories definitely counts as "winning at Temple" --- and he's recruited a roster that should be able to remain in Mid-American Conference contention for years. There's not a lot of flash to the Owls' on-field style, and that should come as no surprise considering Golden played for Joe Paterno and coached under Tom O'Brien and Al Groh. Who knows if he'd win really big at a large school, but it would be foolish to bet against him winning a lot more than he lost.

3. Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee

A 10-win season in Murfreesboro will get you a lot of attention, as well it should. Following it up with another should make a coach a viable candidate for some sort of step up. Quarterback Dwight Dasher is back, so the Blue Raiders could chase down a Sun Belt title. This is Stockstill's fifth season at Middle Tennessee, and it might be the last if his team is as good as last year's.

4. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford

Good: Harbaugh's coaching chops. Bad: The chances for consistent success at Stanford based on fairly recent history. Most guys who succeed with the Cardinal jump elsewhere before, and Harbaugh has improved his team's win total in each of his three seasons. Given his name recognition, his ability to develop talent and his penchant for big wins (Stanford beat Oregon and Southern California last year), a bigger school might come calling. Alma mater Michigan, perhaps?

5. Randy Edsall, Connecticut

The Big East might be there for about a half-dozen teams to take. Why not Connecticut? And if it happens, would the Huskies' efficiency at making the most of a less-than-ideal talent base make Edsall a candidate for bigger things? Connecticut might not be a truly elite program, but it has won eight games in five of the last seven season. A lot of places could do worse than a guy who has shepherded the Huskies into football relevance; the question is whether he'd want to leave.

6. Ken Niumatalolo, Navy

Another guy with the "would he want to leave?" tag who could easily stay in Annapolis and keep churning out great teams for many years. Nonetheless, another 10-win win season at a service academy (a distinct possibility this year), coupled with the triple-option's success at Georgia Tech under former Midshipmen coach Paul Johnson, might make a few athletic directors at struggling programs curious. Success prompts copycats, and while Niumatalolo doesn't project the same swagger as his predecessor, he possesses more than enough steady, quiet certainty in the way he does business. At some point, someone will --- and probably should --- be interested in hiring away the third-year coach.

Coming tomorrow: Coaches who must either win or hire a real estate agent

D1scourse Half-Dozen: Quarterbacks who could win the Heisman

Time for a little early-season Heismania.

The truth is, if someone is going to win the Heisman, they're probably going to be on a top-10 team at the end of the regular season.

A quick look, then, at how this has played out since 1980 (and as a pre-emptive move to hopefully avoid the usual bickering, Reggie Bush was voted the Heisman winner at the time; regardless of what's happened since, that event did occur in December 2005):

AP RANKING OF TEAMS WITH HEISMAN WINNER AT REGULAR SEASON'S END, 1980-2009

No. 1 (10): 1982 Georgia (Herschel Walker), 1983 Nebraska (Mike Rozier), 1986 Miami (Vinny Testaverde), 1992 Miami (Gino Torretta), 1993 Florida State (Charlie Ward), 1997 Michigan (Charles Woodson), 2004 Southern California (Matt Leinart), 2005 Southern California (Reggie Bush), 2006 Ohio State (Troy Smith), 2009 Alabama (Mark Ingram)

No. 2 (1): 2008 Oklahoma (Sam Bradford)

No. 3 (1): 2000 Florida State (Chris Weinke), 2003 Oklahoma (Jason White)

No. 4 (6): 1991 Michigan (Desmond Howard), 1994 Colorado (Rashaan Salaam), 1995 Ohio State (Eddie George), 1996 Florida (Danny Wuerffel), 1999 Wisconsin (Ron Dayne), 2001 Nebraska (Eric Crouch)

No. 5 (1): 2002 Southern California (Carson Palmer)

No. 8 (2): 1981 Southern California (Marcus Allen), 1984 Boston College (Doug Flutie)

No. 9 (1): 2007 Florida (Tim Tebow)

No. 12 (2): 1987 Notre Dame (Tim Brown), 1988 Oklahoma State (Barry Sanders)

No. 13 (2): 1989 Houston (Andre Ware), 1990 (Ty Detmer)

No. 16 (1): 1985 Auburn (Bo Jackson)

No. 18 (1): 1980 South Carolina (George Rogers)

No. 20 (1): 1998 Texas (Ricky Williams)

You'll note that 18 of the last 19 Heisman winners came from teams that wrapped up the regular season in the top 10. Moreover, the last QB before Ware and Detmer to win the Heisman from a team outside the top 10 was Stanford's Jim Plunkett back in 1970.

Unsurprisingly, those numbers distinctly color this look at possible Heisman candidates. This should not be considered a ranking of the best at the position, but rather a look at who has the best potential combination of skills, stats and team success over the course of the season to haul home college football's most hallowed hardware.

1. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State. Everybody knows who Pryor is, and he plays on a team with as good a shot as anyone of making it to the national title game. Hey, look! Five of the last six Heisman winners played in the national title game. If the Buckeyes go 11-1 or better, Pryor will probably receive an invitation to New York --- at minimum.

2. Kellen Moore, Boise State. It all hinges on Labor Day for the gunslinger behind the BCS-busting Broncos. If Moore can play well and take down Virginia Tech, he'll very much be a factor in the Heisman race. Thanks to a relatively soft WAC schedule, his numbers will be excellent and Boise will probably remain in the top five, barring a shocking stumble or a successful Oregon State upset bid. That's a recipe for Heisman relevance.

3. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas. Good news: He's in the SEC, so his name recognition will be high. Bad news: The Razorbacks aren't as good as Alabama. And even if they are on one late September day, they still have to play Georgia, Auburn and Louisiana State at some point. Team success could be the greatest hindrance in Mallett's candidacy.

4. Jacory Harris, Miami. The ACC's most viable Heisman candidate resides in Florida, but he's not the guy with the massive campaign behind him. Harris' Hurricanes will be lucky to make it through the first five games with less than two losses, but that set of opponents --- Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Clemson --- ensures Harris will be a known quantity very early. Should Miami be as good as some (including the Official Dot-Com Diva) believe, Harris will get a ton of credit for it because of the Hurricanes' cast-of-thousands approach to the rest of their skill positions on offense.

5. Ricky Dobbs, Navy. If there's a quarterback who could stay in the discussion without being in the top 10, it's Dobbs. He's already finding grass-roots support, and the service academy angle will at least cause people to consider him. Oh, and he's pretty good, too, and wrapped up his junior year with a surgical dissection of Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Navy probably needs to go 10-2 at minimum and Dobbs might need to come close to his 27 rushing touchdowns from a year ago for this to be even remotely possible. Given Dobbs' abilities and Navy perhaps reaching a talent peak this year, don't count it out.

6. Andrew Luck, Stanford. An efficient quarterback who returns with a nearly intact offensive line in a conference that seems up for grabs after tumultuous offseasons for the two league favorites? That's not a bad Heisman possibility, actually. Sure, Toby Gerhart is gone, but the Cardinal is still in decent shape to make a rare Pac-10 title push. Luck, who threw only four interceptions in 288 attempts last year, will be the guy who makes the offense go this year.

Six more also considered: Matt Barkley, Southern California; Blaine Gabbert, Missouri; Case Keenum, Houston; Jake Locker, Washington; Joshua Nesbitt, Georgia Tech; Christian Ponder, Florida State

Coming tomorrow: A half-dozen running backs who could win the Heisman

College football countdown: Nos. 31-35

It's de facto Big 12 day on the countdown.

Six of the teams from the temporarily 12-team league remain for the top 35. Half of them will pop up in the rest of this entry.

Oh, and so does Boston College.

Onward ...

35. MISSOURI

The Tigers got hammered last year by Navy, Oklahoma State and Texas (and eventually got reamed in the fourth quarter of a slopfest against Nebraska). The year before that, they were drubbed by Oklahoma and Texas. In 2007, Mizzou was dumped twice by Oklahoma.

Despite seasons with 12-2 and 10-4 records in the latter half of the Chase Daniel years, the Tigers get tagged with a close-but-not-quite label. They might be the Big 12's fourth-best team, but they're stuck playing Wile E. Coyote to the conference's traditional powers' Roadrunner.

There's a real chance that plays out in classic Missouri fashion this year. The early schedule --- five teams that didn't play in a bowl game last year, followed by a trip to Texas A&M --- is the sort of thing that can help Blaine Gabbert get his junior season off to a fine start and perhaps help the Tigers sweep the first half of their schedule.

Then comes Oklahoma and Nebraska in late October. Just like that, the Tigers will be back in the discussion for a trip to the Alamo Bowl.

Gary Pinkel probably doesn't get enough credit for shepherding the Tigers out a two-decade wilderness of irrelevance. It's not a Bill Snyder-type resurrection, but it's certainly strong. But when you break down Pinkel's 36-38 conference record (including league title game trips) by Big 12 opponent, it's abundantly clear where Missouri stands in the present day.

4-1: Baylor

3-1: Texas A&M
3-1: Texas Tech

6-3: Iowa State

5-4: Colorado
5-4: Kansas

4-5: Kansas State
4-5: Nebraska

2-3: Oklahoma State

0-5: Texas
0-6: Oklahoma

The Tigers are pretty well-entrenched in the tier below the elite in their conference. Don't plan on that changing this season.

34. STANFORD

There's every reason in the world to believe the Cardinal will be the latest team to demonstrate running back is perhaps the most replaceable position on the field.

Now hold up a minute. This isn't to say Toby Gerhart wasn't a good, even great, player during his career on the Farm.

It's just that four offensive linemen (plus quarterback Andrew Luck) return for Stanford. Gerhart's backups averaged 6.3 yards (Jeremy Stewart) and 5.4 yards (Stepfan Taylor) a carry a year ago, while Gerhart checked in at 5.5 yards a rush.

The pieces are in place for Stanford to at least replicate its 8-5 season of a year ago, if not improve it by a game or two. The Cardinal have posted better records in each of Jim Harbaugh's three seasons, something only six programs have accomplished in that span:

IMPROVED WIN TOTALS, THREE STRAIGHT YEARS (Listed as 06-07-08-09)

Alabama: 6-7-12-14
Cincinnati: 8-10-11-12
Duke: 0-1-4-5
Stanford: 1-4-5-8
Temple: 1-4-5-9
Utah State: 1-2-3-4

33. BOSTON COLLEGE

Just three times in the last 10 seasons did an ACC player set a school career rushing record.

Maryland's LaMont Jordan did it in 2000. Duke's Chris Douglas pulled it off in 2003. And two years later, Chris Barclay did the same thing at Wake Forest.

There's a very real chance Montel Harris pulls it off this year for Boston College --- as a junior.

Harris has 2,357 yards. Derrick Knight --- who played at Boston College from 2000 to 2003, but did so while the Eagles were in the Big East --- rolled up 3,725 yards.

Some quick math says Harris needs 1,369 yards for the record, or a little more than 105 yards a game (assuming BC makes a bowl game).

Count on it happening. The Eagles aren't going to abandon their run-heavy offensive approach, and they can be counted upon to be stout on defense --- particularly against the run.

Few teams cling to the fundamental notion that winning is predicated on controlling the line of scrimmage as much as Boston College does. Not-so-coincidentally, few teams exceed expectations on an annual basis as consistently as the Eagles.

There will be no severe underestimation of Boston College here. The Eagles have won eight games for nine years running. This isn't a national title contender and it's likely the first law of ACC bowl selection ("BC shalt always get screwed") will lead to a December trip to Shreveport. But with a friendly finish (Maryland, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse dot the second half of the schedule), the Eagles have a real chance to be in the Atlantic Division chase deep into November.

32. TEXAS TECH

Tommy Tuberville made some headlines this past week for pointing out the future of the Big 12 is murky at best despite the salvage job done last month.

What isn't quite so murky: The new Red Raiders coach is going to have his hands full keeping Texas Tech among the top three teams in the current (but soon to be abolished) South Division.

Texas and Oklahoma aren't going anywhere. Texas A&M is getting better. And the Red Raiders, aside from their 11-2 run in 2008, are a drip-drip-drip of eight- and nine-win seasons.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Texas Tech has actually done well against Oklahoma and even won that wild game in Lubbock against Texas two years back. But as good a hire as Tuberville was (the guy did lead Auburn to an unbeaten season not all that long ago), it's anyone's guess whether Mike Leach's crazy offensive genius will leave any sort of residue for too much longer.

Tuberville has time to find his inner pirate and keep things humming along at Texas Tech. For this year, though, 8-5 seems just about right for the Red Raiders.

31. TEXAS A&M

This season is really pretty simple for the Aggies.

If they can field an average defense, they'll safely land in a mid-tier bowl.

If they cannot, Mike Sherman could be feeling a pretty toasty seat.

Almost quietly, Texas A&M deployed one of the best quarterbacks you haven't seen much of (Jerrod Johnson) and finished fifth nationally in total offense. But they were a complete disaster on defense, giving up more yards per game (426.3) than all but two BCS conference schools.

One was Florida State, who gave up at least 21 points to all but one major-college opponent. The other was Washington State, which was just horrible.

Johnson will certainly make some believers, and the fact the Aggies must cross the state line only twice all season (to play fairly winnable games at Oklahoma State and Kansas) will help. A bruising home conference schedule --- Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska --- will only help so much.

Texas A&M hung with enough teams last season to provide hope this year could be even better. And it should be, assuming no one sees a 10-win season in the near future in College Station.